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Old 07-05-2012, 01:54 PM   #1
For The Lead
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Join Date: Nov 2008
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Betting...DO's and DON'T's

I have been following the "LEARN TO WIN" contest from its' inception and I can't think of a better opportunity than this to make just one of the MANY observations I have.

Here is a link to a recent post in Bill V's July contest thread.
Let me make it VERY CLEAR(especially to Bill V), I am NOT picking on Bill V. I'm sure he has kicked himself in the butt enough already. I don't need to add to it.
I am simply using his recent post as an example.
Here is the link. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8429

A very basic "learn to win" concept of the methodology is...whatever your bet amount may be, 60% of that bet amount is bet on the low odds horse and 40% of that bet amount is bet on the high odds horse. Naturally, this assumes you are also following the basic "learn to win" methodology principal of two horse betting.

Following this basic "learn to win" concept of the methodology, Bill V would have bet $40 on the winner of this race that paid $36.00, which was his high odds horse and $60 on the lower odds horse, which did not win.

The result of this basic "learn to win" betting concept would have returned $720 less the $100 bet for a profit of $620, a very nice return.

I will also take this opportunity to offer another observation.
In this contest, it seems place betting has taken center stage and why not? A contestant receives the same "hit value" for winning a place bet as they do for winning a win bet. It seems this has distracted several contestants from the ultimate goal in handicapping horse races...WINNING THE RACE!

If place betting is to be allowed in the contest, then it should be proportionate. In other words, in a real horse race, the purse distribution is 60% of the purse to the winning horse and 20% of the purse to the place horse. Perhaps the win/place "hit value" in the contest should mirror what happens in the purse distribution of a race. It would allow for contestants to get credit for a winning place bet, while keeping the emphasis on win bets.
So if a contestant wants to make a $100 place bet on a very short priced horse, knowing he/she stands a good chance of winning the bet and will get the same "hit value" as another contestant that is successful at winning a $100 win bet on a horse that pays $20.00, go right ahead, just understand that you will only get 1/3 (one third) credit for winning that $100 place bet. By the way, I didn't make up this $100 place bet on a short priced horse. A contestant actually made such a bet.
And then there is the $25 to win/$75 to place bet I have seen. No problem. Just understand that if the horse runs second, you get 1/3 (one third) credit.
This type of bet may help with the "earnings" side of the contest, although I wouldn't agree with that, but will take away from the "hit value"...... as it should.

This is a FREE contest!!! Why play like your betting the rent money??? LEARN TO WIN!
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
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Old 07-05-2012, 03:02 PM   #2
Bill V.
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Thanks FTL

You make some very important points, Thank you for helping us out

Actually I was happy with the bet, Sure I would have liked to have something
on the winner but I will take the small profit.

As for as this contest I don't think changing the format on place bets is going to happen

The purpose of the contest is How To Use RDSS and Learn To Win
Putting a bonus on win bets over place bets and changing the hit rate bonus
would make the contest a different animal

The purpose of this contest is not a HOW TO WIN CONTEST /contest
Its to do races with RDSS in advance, and offer examples of what works and does not

So although I did not win in accordance to what you feel is acceptable
My selection has at least presented a learning tool

I take this a positive and positives make winners

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Old 07-05-2012, 03:40 PM   #3
Ted Craven
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Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post
I will also take this opportunity to offer another observation.
In this contest, it seems place betting has taken center stage and why not? A contestant receives the same "hit value" for winning a place bet as they do for winning a win bet. It seems this has distracted several contestants from the ultimate goal in handicapping horse races...WINNING THE RACE!
Actually, I disagree that the ultimate goal in handicapping is to win the race. The horse wins the race, the owner wins the purse, the trainer preps, the jockey guides - the bettor's role in this whole ensemble is not to predict who should win, but only to take money out of the betting pools - or pass the race because they see no such opportunity relative to the risk.

One reason to bet in the Place pool, in real life as in this contest, is because that is the only Pool where there may be some wagering value in the race. There were numerous races posted where the favourite looked to be legitimate and pay little, yet a likely other horse, by whatever measurement is meaningful to one's handicapping (counter-energy, tied VDC #1, etc, etc) is let go at overlay odds. That horse may be the ONLY reasonable bet in the race - in the Place pool, and that is the best bet in the race.

When we brainstormed how to structure the contest, we wanted to emulate real-life skills as much as possible, and betting to Place in some circumstances is one of them. So is dutching multiple combos in the Exacta pools, or in the Win pool; so is Doubles, Pick3 and Pick4. In such circumstances, we don't care who wins the race - we care if a long term betting approach including such strategies makes a positive return.

We do care about learning how to identify good Win contenders, and good Place contenders, then deciding if there is a bet. Identifying such is the foundation of all other wagering strategies, vertical and horizontal.

I would definitely agree that indiscriminately betting a favourite to Place is not a long term optimal strategy, but because of the other virtues of Place betting, I feel reluctant to downgrade the outcome of wagers bet to Place. At least until Place betting has been proven to have no long term value, compared to Win (setting aside the admitted value of other exotic wagers).

One of the advantages about having everyone's line selections and analysis screens, and a lot of them the summary BL/BL screen, is that someone could pick a given individual, someone who did well or someone who did not so well in the Contest standings, and make a a case over 20 races for an alternate, rigorous, betting strategy. Perhaps proving that avoiding Place betting and focusing on 2 horses to Win would have returned MORE money overall. Or perhaps proving that a different, consistent split of the wager unit - including to Place - would have been more profitable. Etc ...

That's the kind of detailed teaching I believe we all could benefit from, and if I'm not mistaken, the kind of review of betting records that Doc Sartin engaged in with clients from time to time.

We could have called the Contest 'Learn to Handicap and Wager Effectively', but 'Learn to Win' seemed more catchy. It's what I meant.

Thank you For the Lead for your thoughts! These are important ideas, and I hope to have continued thoughtful discussion on them. People are learning how to be Winners (if they want to).


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