Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Pace Makes the Race / TPR
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-05-2016, 01:03 PM   #1
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Phase 1 race TUP race 6 4/5

My look at the 6th from Turf Paradise 5.5
Az Breds Cl 3000 3 + non winners of 1 race in 6 months or 4 races life time
Horse 1 has 12 wins Horse 2 has 10 wins Rest of field have 3 wins each
Step 1 Top 5 TPR Line 1
9 5 4 2 6

Step 2 Fulcrum horse
#2 94.5 ( 44.7 )

Step 3 Running styles
Horse 1 Sus line 1 20/1 ML
Horse 2 Early Line 1
Horse 3 Press Line 2 Excuse line 1 First try at TUP
Horse 4 EP line 1
Horse 5 Sus line 1 20/1 ML
Horse 6 EP Line 1
Horse 7 EP Line 1
Horse 8 Press line 2
Horse 9 Press line 1


Step 4 Who has the top EPR
The 2 has the best EPR 94.5
Early Presser
Can It go wire to wire = No but it is inside the 4 6 and 7
However the 79.5 LPR is a knock

Step 5 rate the lines make your decisions
Can the top TPR # 9 win 2 in a row ?
The top TPR horses
They are 9 8 5
Top 3 VDC = 4 2 9-8 tie

My bets 4 and 9
I will use the 5 in exactas

Name:  TP pract.PNG
Views: 653
Size:  51.2 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2016, 03:27 PM   #2
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
I'll go with 6-8-7, in that order. Quick look as I have to go out. Will try to get a second look later. Perhaps some scratches. The # 9 ran a career high in last and see no reason for improvement or that he can repeat it. Definite speed duel race.

Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2016, 04:23 PM   #3
rmath
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
I have the 4-9-2 as my top 3 contenders in that order.
rmath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2016, 06:15 PM   #4
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
Since I see this is a cheap claiming race where the 4 -5-9 all won their last I'll toss them to repeat. This leaves me 2-6-8. The 8 looks like it maybe going off form so I'll end up with the 2 & 6.
Tim
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2016, 06:46 PM   #5
raceman5
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
Well

It's 8 min to post and the 5 is 20-1 think i will have a little fun here and bet the 5 w-p-s. Maybe all the speed will fall down. Yea right, early speed wins 41% at turf paradise at this distance.

Bob
raceman5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2016, 07:12 PM   #6
rmath
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
Tuff race

Looks like we all missed this one.
Rmath
rmath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-05-2016, 08:52 PM   #7
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Yes we did and a ugly race, couldn't get the 3 better than 4th. Not much confidence in this race. That 3 should have paid even more. Good training and not something to dwell on as it was one of those that was not beatable.

Onward,
Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2016, 09:27 PM   #8
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
PP's

Hi Everyone

I am so sorry for the delay .. GEE how do people in eastern Arizona/New Mexico survive in 2016 with such poor hot spot wifi .

Every time I pulled over on the road and checked I had NO BARS!!!
No networks in range, AHHHH.
Anyway the race turned out to be a dud for us, but lets look at the race,
A very nice man who has helped me greatly did not download the card,
So I want to give him a look.

Here are the race conditions

Name:  Conitions.PNG
Views: 494
Size:  25.0 KB

Now here is the field
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2016, 09:29 PM   #9
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Horses

1 2 3 4 5

Name:  TP1.PNG
Views: 444
Size:  87.5 KB

Name:  TP2.PNG
Views: 493
Size:  95.3 KB

Name:  TP3.PNG
Views: 478
Size:  91.0 KB

Name:  TP4.PNG
Views: 474
Size:  97.3 KB

Name:  TP5.PNG
Views: 466
Size:  94.3 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-06-2016, 09:32 PM   #10
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Horses

6 7 8 9

Name:  TP6.PNG
Views: 475
Size:  95.8 KB

Name:  TP7.PNG
Views: 465
Size:  92.6 KB

Name:  TP8.PNG
Views: 488
Size:  88.1 KB

Name:  TP9.PNG
Views: 484
Size:  89.6 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Adjustments Question Ted Craven RDSS2 / FAQ's 3 06-29-2014 03:22 PM
UPDATED - Official Contest Rules, beginning AUGUST Ted Craven August Contest 1 07-24-2012 10:09 PM
Del Mar Race 9 Bill V. General Discussion 2 07-23-2012 09:40 PM
Churchill Grade 1- Friday 11/25 - TM 113 Race Class RichieP Matchup Discussion 19 11-26-2011 04:22 PM
Wagercapping - Follow Up Articles Ted Craven Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum 19 03-22-2010 06:06 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:05 AM.