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03-22-2012, 11:24 AM | #11 |
Budman
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 797
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confused ???
Bill,
Why did you use line 4 as it was not a comparable race due to the track being listed as good. Just curious? Or am I confused about comparable. Hope is going well with you. Bud |
03-22-2012, 12:58 PM | #12 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Bud
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03-22-2012, 01:33 PM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
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03-22-2012, 02:59 PM | #14 |
Budman
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 797
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Bill & GL,
I'll buy that. Thanks, |
03-23-2012, 04:33 PM | #15 |
Maiden
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 3
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Hello Ted, on your ratings, wouldn't the 6 have gone in as Price Only?
Rod |
03-23-2012, 06:21 PM | #16 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,854
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Quote:
Rodz, Just focusing on the NewPace analysis in this race (and then, just the Adjusted SR set), if you let the 6 in as a 3rd Late due to Price Only (the #6 is ranked 3rd Late and separated from the 2nd Late #5 by only 1 point - we sort Late by the SR low), then you also have to consider the #3 horse in as a 3rd Early on Price Only (because it was tied with the 2nd Early #2) and at 18-1 was also well above natural odds. If so, easy enough to throw out the #3, even only using CompSR. Now you have 5 horses. How to get that down to 3 for a reasonable betting situation? Again - using NewPace concepts - we've got a great analysis by Bill V using straight-up RDSS/Sartin. How would you do it? Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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03-23-2012, 07:20 PM | #17 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
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Quote:
I think the problem is....do I choose Raw TM ratings or Adjusted TM rating. If somebody has a decision model of the two ratings, then would be easy to find out which rating is the most profitable. |
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03-24-2012, 12:07 AM | #18 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: the great race place
Posts: 205
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Quote:
In my daily play the only time i look at raw ratings is for a line that is being extracted or projected.The equalized,normalized @ adjusted rating tells me everything i need to know.Work's done for you why mess with it.Doc's par gap formulae is good as any out there. Success To All! |
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03-24-2012, 09:07 AM | #19 | |
Maiden
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 3
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Quote:
The 4 goes in Late and a choice has to be made between the 5 and 6 for second Late horse, with the horse not chosen going in Late Price Only. In this case if the 6 was not chosen Late it would definitely be backed Price Only. How the other contenders, potentially 6 of the 8 runners, were bet would be down to betting preferences. As the favourite isn’t dominating the others, the 1 or 3 could be backed along with the 2 and 6. In other circumstances the 7 may be backed on its own or with the longshots. I don’t use NewPace the way it was originally set out but I like some of the ideas and find it useful for sorting out contenders. Like you I was intrigued by the 'confidence range' ideas in the book ('How to Measure Anything' by Doug Hubbard). I think there is more potential research there. I’m a bit of a lurker on the site. There are some brilliant posters. I probably spend most time in the MatchUp thread; couldn’t be much more different to NewPace! I think RDSS looks like an excellent program and one day (when I’ve grown up?) I hope to try it out. Well done Ted on RDSS and this site. The posters are so knowledgeable and usually very positive and helpful. Best wishes, Rod. |
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04-13-2012, 11:48 AM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
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Ted...
Just ran across this... In using Trackmaster 100 DTV setting....it would averted/lessen any decisions...
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Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack Last edited by mikesal57; 04-13-2012 at 11:52 AM. |
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