Parx and those 1m70yds routes

[mick]

In one of the Follow Ups, Doc Sartin recommended creating your own "imaginary" stable (might not have the correct adjective) and acting as the trainer of this stable, you place "your" horses where you think each might be competitive. Subsequently, you compare your placement with where the real trainer actually ran the horses.

When I read that Follow Up, I thought the idea had real merit (like many other things the man recommended). Reading Mitch's post, I wonder if he followed the Doc's recommendation. Or perhaps he's actually been the business himself.

mick

[Mitch44]

Hi Mick,

I never trained or been in the business.

The Doc recommended creating a stable in the original yellow manual by analyzing a horses record. He used the horses pace against the Pace of the Race that he ran against pages 34-38 of Yellow Manual. This takes some serious work but you can determine where a horse properly needs to be places. Many times better than their own trainers. Note: This much easier to accomplish in todays RDSS because both the total Pace of the Horse and Pace of the Race is already computed for every race the horse has ran, This saves some serious work to do all this by hand. But the Doc's rating can be easily be obtained. I don't actually do that to get a stable. I can analyze those two things( POR & POH) and as compared to finish positions on different surfaces and distances to see where a horse should be placed.

To pick proper pace lines one has to start with the conditions of the race. James Quinn book ," The Handicappers Condition Book" is an excellent book about placement of horses and conditions of races. Highly recommended! Before all this computer stuff, before 1990 or so, handicappers had to analyze a horses chart from the Racing Form to pick winners.
With todays computers and the public's taste for instant gratification they have become lazy and therefore heavily relies on computers as a black box type approach.

What I do with a contender is to fully analyze the horses chart from bottom to top which helps me to pick a proper pace line and determine if the horse is properly placed or not, Answering questions such as; Is this horse properly place as to distance and surface. Can this horse stretch out or need to be cutback in distance. If I was the trainer of this horse would I run him in this race etc. etc.

In my placing of a horse into a stable Mick my point is once you have done that analysis and gathered important information why discard it. Save it and catch that horse running back in the future. About 2 years ago in the BC 6.5 F Turf race at SA I caught a Chad Brown horse cutting back in distance from this and the horse won paying $16 and change along with keying a nice EX & P3. Forget its name but it had lots of 2nd & 3rd at 7F and 8F. Many take those finishes that a horse can win at those distances, not necessarily so. Maybe way down in class against a weaker pace of the race but that move may cause you to lose a good thing through a claim or not win as much purse $ that a horse is capable of winning.

I don't use the stable as much as I use to because my time is so limited, barely have time to handicap. Hoping that will get squared away in a few months or so.
Of course the great thing about your stable is the feed bills and trainers fees are free.
Mitch44

[The Pook]

Mick, in addition to Mitch's advice above one guy you might want to reference is For The Lead's posts on this site. He doesn't play anymore but apparently was a professional. He always started every handicapping session with very specific rules. Eliminated all entrants with a 20-1 or higher ML and any out of action for 90 or more days. He based this on his extensive database of millions of races. I've tested this in my smaller database and his numbers hold up more or less.
My point though is that he was an excellent condition handicapper which was where he would look after the rules above. In the M4$ last year he PM'd me more than once after the race pointing out how one could eliminate more than half the field based on conditions alone. Reading the conditions correctly is an art in itself.

Pook

[mick]

Thanks, Pook. I will. I've started a "track model" database on Parx primarily for eliminations. You read my mind.

And thank you, Mitch. Yes, it was in the Yellow Manual. The instant that I read you post I remembered.

mick