Phase 1 TPR lessons

[Lt1]

Bill I use the auto select but check to see if I agree with line chosen.
Tim

[Bill V.]

In my steps of Phase 1
The top 5 TPR off the last line
5 3 2 4 6
fulcrum horse # 2 92 EPR

Horse 1 no line 230 day
Horse 2 Line 1
Horse 3 Line 2 excuse line 1 wrong surface
Horse 4 Line 2 excuse line 1 wrong surface
Horse 5 No line 202 days
Horse 6 Line 3 excuse line 1 wrong distance 7 furlongs 71 LPR and line 2 wrong surface
Horse 7 No line 251 days
Horse 8 Line 1 but only a 167 TPR-good luck lady

Best EPR = #4 93
Can it go wire to wire It does own the 0.0 in
the first two segments but horse 1 has a better epr
98 and i dont have a line for horse 1
horse 6 shows a 97 EPR in line 1

Best TPR
6 4 3
Best VDC
6 3 2

My bets would have been 6 and 3

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Bill I use the auto select but check to see if I agree with line chosen.
Tim

Thanks Tim So would you have stayed with line 3 for horse 6 ?

Bill

[Lt1]

Bill since line 2 was a turf race I would have also looked at line 4 unless that track was sealed. Since this race is for 3 yr olds only I would not be concerned that l4 was a 2yr old race. We still are dealing with young 3 yr olds. I don't limit myself to the last 90 days if I judge the horse to be in form. In l1 the horse was up close at the 2nd call of a longer race and was in the money in l2 against better so I accept his form and go back. If the program still preferred l3 then that's what I would use.
Tim

[Lt1]

Mark I see that seem to downplay the 3rd fraction. As Jimmy use to tell me Tim they don't pay for whose in front at the 2nd call. Also he devoted a chapter in his book to balancing the 3rd fraction. I model all the tracks I play and note that many turf races are won by horses with strong 3rd fractions. Also at a track like MVR most races at all distances are won by off the pace horses with good 3rd fractions. Yes I do know how much of a race is run by the 2nd call at each dist. but I also know the minimum 3rd fraction needed to win at that dist at that track. I will agree that earlier running horses have a leg up but believe that the 3rd fraction must still be checked.
Tim

[Mark]

The Final Fraction is the least predictive of the 3 because it can not win by itself. However, the factor SP is the most predictive for turf racing in a recent study at another Software site. SP is defined as (EP+FR3)/2 if I remember correctly. In other words, where is the horse positionally in the race prior to the FR3. FR3 has to be viewed in context. How many times to you see a horse or horses closing in the stretch, visually running faster than all the rest getting up for 4th or 5th. They often come into view as the camera pans the winner and those battling for the lead at the wire. These horses will have the best FR3 in the race but unless that is combined with enough Early Pace to obtain a contentious position at the 2nd call, the horse will never cash a ticket. This is all Incremental Velocity stuff and EXDC of Running Styles. Horses slow into stride or that just plain lack early speed once they do reach their highest velocities then decelerate more slowly. That's what your are seeing in the late stretch. The difference in the rates of deceleration is what creates this optical illusion. "The Hat's" 2 for 1 theory is specifically valid with Early and Presser horses that a attempting to take the lead or stay close up to the lead. By this exertion, running faster or somewhat slower in the 1st fraction deceleration in the Final Fraction is increased or reduced.

[Lt1]

Thanks Mark. I am well aware of the illusion of horses appearing to run faster then tiring front runners. I know that 1 run horses either early or late win few races[except for the perfect storm scenario ]. I was referring to ep/sp types of horses. We know or should that and horse capable of running 2 good fractions is a threat to win the race. I keep both a track model and profile and find them very useful in my selection process. I guess what I'm saying is that one can be a consistent winner no matter what approach they take with the methodology provided they do the work.
Tim

[Mark]

Racing is all about fast horses. Early horses are both quick and fast. Some more sustained horses can become fast relative to the running of their race when the front end decelerates because of excessive contention during the early running of the race. However, it is the handicapper's challenge to identify those situations when the front end combat will have that effect and provide the opportunity for the more sustained runner, whether P, SP or S to use their relative speed to overcome the deficit in ground loss early in the race.

[Bill V.]

In phase 1 it is so important to properly identify the early runners , if one early has a advantage over the field all the other early runners now are early pressers.
And pressers, if they are need the lead early now they are out.
Now look at the EPR ratings .Can the fast Early go wire to wire? How do you know ? Look at its LPR
Is it.equal or near the pressers lot. if so it can go wire to wire.
Based on the tpr leaders ,
Early , Early Pressers and Pressers with close enough EPR
ratings are much better bets than sustained. runners.
It is very important to ask this about sustained horses.
How far back will they be in today's race ?
Every point of EPR equals 1 beaten length,
So a sustained horse better be close to the top EPR horses. In both lengths and position , Is your sustained horse just too slow to win against today's expected EPR..
Bill

[Mitch44]

Its a horses natural instinct to chase speed. All races have to be put into context. Just because a horse is in the lead at say the S C and 75 % of the race is over doesn't mean he can win. It depends on how fast he decelerates and how fast the other horses accelerates.

Each race is different however generally the longer a horse holds its speed the better the horse is, higher class horses run better 3rd Fr . regardless of running style and decelerate the least to include E horses. P,SP & S types win races everyday and SP & S types generally pay higher mutual. Some horses that run S are totally immune to early pace because they run much later therefore the pace doesn't effect them as it does other E & Ep types.

A classic example of this was Tenpin's recent win at TB on 12 Mar.16,10th, at 9F:
109.08( SC 66.6666 % over -14 lg.'s) mile 134.08( 88.8888% over -5 lg.'s) finish won, made it up. of course its acceleration wasn't the only factor so was the POR horse who after a blazing 6F began to decelerate and ended up 2nd but still had the lead after 8F by 5 lg. Hit a brick wall after the mile. But the winner was also flying.

Its about context and EPR, LPR, and CPR / TPR all have to be considered in TPR. Of course we have other tools in later programs and even advance concepts in TPR to help in decision making.

Mitch44