|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
02-25-2011, 11:10 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
|
"Parx" Saturday 2/26 - Sprint
Here is race 5 from Philly (Parx ) Saturday going 6f. Post time about 2 PM Eastern
Race conditions, entries, Apv and Class ratings
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
02-25-2011, 11:12 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
|
pps with tandem finishes shown
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
02-25-2011, 11:14 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
|
continuing
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
02-25-2011, 11:19 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
|
For those so inclined:
1) FPLR? 2) Projected Pace? 3) Running Styles? 4) First Fraction times when the horse runs very well? 5) are there runners with multiple styles (Early and OTE) against todays projected pace? If you like play this VERY softly in background: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CR3dM-GlZK8
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
02-26-2011, 06:25 AM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
lone E
thanks for the excellent music to relax It really helped me.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY Rich Here is my workup |
02-26-2011, 08:55 AM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Staten Island, NY
Posts: 3,952
|
HI GUYS...
With the heavy rains Thurs nite into Fri morn we wont know how the track will play today...or even run at all ...this is Prx!!! Lets look at em.. 1) well, horses just dont win from that way back...out 2) 2nd in last..in 3) a closer and only 3 wins, out of conditions here...out 4) another closer, 2nd 3 back and nothing in last 2...out 5) nothing after layoff...out 6) 5 months off...presser...but out for me 7) early runner...in 8) early runner...in 9) early router, but its an ...out 2-7-8 lets evaluate early's... #7 outbroke other speed in his last race and ran well..won this type race twice...2nd off layoff ... #8 no speed to contend in his last race and still faded, his usual style..out #2 finally drops into class he can run well in, but I think hes second best here 7-2 a no value race ...pass gl mike
__________________
Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack |
02-26-2011, 10:43 AM | #7 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
|
Quote:
Thanks to you, Bill V, Bill L, Pete C. Ernie and all others who take the time to share your thoughts and breakdown the races here. It is a huge help both to your selves and others who read them, I really appreciate the time you give "laying it out" for us NO scratches and the track is fast for this race
__________________
"Grampy I'm talking to you!" Last edited by RichieP; 02-26-2011 at 10:52 AM. |
|
02-26-2011, 11:06 AM | #8 |
Grade 1 Aspiree
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
|
Prx r5
OK guys here's my 2 cents for whatever it is worth...........I also like the #8 horse, the lone early runner coming back in 6 days after
keeping up .5 of a length to the lead horse to the stretch. I used a route line but the horse has won 3 x's at the distance. But there is a red flag as RDSS shows that the median% has been increasing over the last 3 races..69.5%, 70.3% and 70.4%. But nevertheless I still like the #8. The #2 showed some life in its last race finishing 2nd but that was 52 days ago and only had a 3F workout 10 days ago. I think something was not right with the horse after his last race otherwise if the horse was showing good form why not race him sooner ? So I think the trainer is bringing him back slowly. The other horse that projects early is the #3 and is dropping from 7.5 to 5 after his last race. Seems the horse has lost his competetiveness at 7.5..may be a negative class drop but the expected high odds could justify a bet. Can't say if I would play this one but my picks are 3 and 8. Ernie |
02-26-2011, 11:09 AM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 611
|
Parx Race 5:
Scanning the running styles, I only see two horses I would consider “Early” today, #7 and #8. #9 is an early horse in routes, but I don’t see this one being quick enough to get the lead today. Based on that, my initial feel for this race is Early. #8 fought for 2 calls against a 22.2 45.2 in the last race. I also see it was a 6.5 furlong line and we are cutting back to 6 furlongs today…So I’ll project today’s pace off that line as 22.2 45.2 111.1. #7 has won against a faster pace in the past (line 4), but last time ran second versus a slower pace than I project today (22.4 46.2). The horse fought for 2 calls, but so did #8 against a faster pace. #7 does not need the lead to win. I’m not sure about #8 because there are no wins showing in the PP’s! However, the OTE runners in this race don’t show me much. They are slow versus today’s pace or run from far back positionally. I prefer early to win this race and #8 is my selection. |
02-26-2011, 02:26 PM | #10 |
Grade 1 Aspiree
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
|
Race 5
That was a nice one at good odds. Acclaimed #8 pays $14.00 a definite bet at those odds.....Ernie
|
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
Dirt Mile (G1) Saturday 5:20pm ET | Ted Craven | Saturday November 6 | 5 | 11-06-2010 02:17 PM |
Turf Sprint (G2) 5f Saturday 3:15pm ET | Ted Craven | Saturday November 6 | 4 | 11-06-2010 02:12 PM |
Sprint (G1) 6f Saturday 2:30pm ET | Ted Craven | Saturday November 6 | 5 | 11-06-2010 02:10 PM |
Gulfstream Saturday | Bill Lyster | Matchup Discussion | 10 | 01-09-2010 05:07 PM |
Matchup Webinar - Saturday October 18th 2008 | RichieP | Matchup Discussion | 31 | 08-08-2008 07:56 AM |