selecting contenders

[pktruckdriver]

3. Using New Pace, I do quick eliminations of one or two horses..(however NewPace has as one of it's assumptions that the 90% statistical paradigm, (using speed ratings), Schwartz espouses is one of the major determinants of a horse winning a race..with it's early and late ideas. I am still thinking about whether that paradigm is THE most predictive element in racing. Anyway, I use NP to throw out horses, if statistically they could not possibly win. (And actually when I have too many races, I flip through New Pace and use it to select "playable" races). Your eye can do that in about 5 seconds, (and I am a "visual" person, I like the graphs).

1st your post was fascinating to read thank you so much

Now NP you state basically is a speed tool, is this correct, or am I wrong? And you state you use it to eliminate horses and also find playable races in 5 seconds scans, I have NP too, and scan it sometimes, but to me it is basically telling me the fastest ever horse in the race today, not necesssarily when that horse ran the fastest time of all the horses running today, or what the distance was either, does it, am I wrong again? Now I know RDSS will point it out when you look deep enough for it, which I do, and it is easy to see,

I use only RDSS2 now, use to use HSH, but too much and well, let me say I am happier here, very much so

you also stated this concerning Models, are they the models of RDSS or your own model you made ?

I know that either the top horse #1 in RDSS, (is this the top BL/BL, or VDC Horse? ) or (in sprint races) #1 in DCL and LPR is going to win, or in route races, the top RDSS or #1 in EPR, ( and also what screen do you look at LPR and EPR at, Primary or BL/BL)

May I ask what type of races here, Mdn, Clm, ALW, Stakes, or all


Thanks again

Patrick

another dutching link
http://horseracing-handicapping-soft...om/HHdemo.html

[Dorianmode]

"Now NP you state basically is a speed tool, is this correct, or am I wrong? And you state you use it to eliminate horses and also find playable races in 5 seconds scans, I have NP too, and scan it sometimes, but to me it is basically telling me the fastest ever horse in the race today, not necesssarily when that horse ran the fastest time of all the horses running today, or what the distance was either, does it, am I wrong again?"

No, you are not wrong. The formulas in NewPace, as Mr. Schwartz explains in one of his first videos, (he talks about his revelation from that statistics book...etc), are based on the science of statistics. They compute the standard deviation of the speed ratings. That means, that under most circumstances, (given sufficiently consistent behaviors, and enough data)......which by the way, is one of the reasons they are not always reliable...not enough, or consistent data...., the behavior of the horse will fall, 95% of the time, within the range of 2 standard deviations. You don't need to know how that's computed, or even what that means. (I can give you the formulas if you want it), as NP does it for you. If you're interested, it's discussed here : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68-95-99.7_rule
All that means is that it is VERY, (95%) probable that a horse will run today within the same speed range as it did in the past. But THAT is also one of it's weaknesses. It doesn't necessarily tell you about the horses CURRENT condition. It only tells you what it did in the past. You're also correct, it doesn't tell you if the horse can run at today's distance, or in today's company. You still have to handicap the race.

"you also stated this concerning Models, are they the models of RDSS or your own model you made ?"

They are my own. If you read the early Follow Up's, you can see how to make your own models. That is a HUGE subject ... we can talk about that later. But basically, I keep track of who wins what, in terms of early/late energy distribution, at any given track.

"I know that either the top horse #1 in RDSS, (is this the top BL/BL, or VDC Horse? ) or (in sprint races) #1 in DCL and LPR is going to win, or in route races, the top RDSS or #1 in EPR, ( and also what screen do you look at LPR and EPR at, Primary or BL/BL)"

I look at few screens, mostly the TE screen, and BL/BL, (and the "preceptor" numbers, to make sure I didn't miss a more appropriate pace line). I struggle with this sometimes...sometimes you have to go look at the video of a past race, (they're available in TwinSpires, among other places) to figure out why, for example, a seemingly good horse did SO badly...I don't like making excuses for horses...unless I have a good reason. Often in this situation, my "twitch detector" goes off, and I just say, "get me outta here."

"May I ask what type of races here, Mdn, Clm, ALW, Stakes, or all"

I set my initial search to look for claiming sprints, $7500 and above, then claiming routes, then allowance races. I avoid maidens, (except for occasional high class MSW's), no 2 year olds, (and this time of year, many "3" year olds, are really 2 1/2 year olds, so I don't like 3 year olds this time of year, unless I know the horse's actual barn and history). Many Stakes races, where the horses are coming from all over are fun to watch and play with, but statistically, they are not good wagering opportunities...these horses, in many cases, have never competed against each other....it's a total crap shoot, so I never bet much on them. They are not the bread and butter of a serious handicapper, UNLESS...of course, you have proven to yourself, you are good at them...some people are VERY good with maiden 2 yo first time starters...go figure...not me !

[shoeless]

I notice that quite a few people use NP as part of their handicapping process,
the question I have is why use these numbers instead of the TPR numbers.

[Dorianmode]

"I notice that quite a few people use NP as part of their handicapping process,
the question I have is why use these numbers instead of the TPR numbers."

Another good question. Two things. I DO look at them. However, it's sort of a matter of "apples and oranges". First, having been in a science all my life, my brain feels comfortable with the statistical paradigm in which NP rests. Secondly I HAVE raised the question here, of whether we could/should be using another calculation, or readout, .....that of the standard deviation from TE, or another related TPR number, BUT that would have to come from multiple (self-selected??) races. The NP "range" is a calculation of the standard deviation using the last 10 races, (as I recall), and the TPR numbers are only from the (one) selected pace line...so it's, (NP) a broader, (more reliable) view of the horse's behavior. There is also the lack of research into the whole matter of whether the calculation of a number, ((based on speed ratings from, (for example), "x" number of days/weeks/months ago, has ANY impact, or predictive value on a horse today)), which could be a. improving, b.declining, or c. static. Actually NP needs at least two more dimensions added to it. 1. a measure of the "Confidence Interval", (from statistics), of the range, 2. another number, such as a Neyman Construction, so we can know at a glance, for each horse's NP range, how it reflects "recency", (as well as a few other things). I actually think that as horse racing exists in academic Game Theory today, the future will be not so much about "a" horse, but about "a" race.

[pktruckdriver]

May I say Sir, it is a pleasure to read your post and the follow up answers, thanks


patrick

[shoeless]

The NP "range" is a calculation of the standard deviation using the last 10 races, (as I recall), and the TPR numbers are only from the (one) selected pace line...so it's, (NP) a broader, (more reliable) view of the horse's behavior.


AH finally someone has gotten to the meat and the potatoes.Would you
rather have a number based on all of the horses races or based on current
form?

For me I would rather have it on current form not on something that was
done 10 races back.

[Dorianmode]

Exactly ! I would also choose the recent race, IF I had to choose only one. But I don't. I can have both, (AND NP is in it's early phase of development. It will no doubt improve). The recency thing I discussed above. The NP calculation could be weighted towards the recent end, if the research were to be done to support it, ((and it, (the standard deviation) IS computed from ALL the last 10 races)).

There remains the fact that while it is very unlikely that a horse will "break out" from it's established behavior patterns, I still have to look at the recent races to see at what position in the range the hoss will likely run today. I need all the help I can get.

[shoeless]

I just reread that post about recency and you make very valid points about NP

[Dorianmode]

Something I have been meaning to ask here ....

What do you folks think about 7 furlong races ? I avoid them like the plague. I have this theory that horses, and many trainers, and maybe some jockeys don't know whether they are running a sprint or a route. I think it confuses the horses. (In my records my win % with them is far lower than others). Any thoughts ?? Thanks.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Dorianmode

Exactly ! I would also choose the recent race, IF I had to choose only one. But I don't. I can have both, (AND NP is in it's early phase of development. It will no doubt improve). The recency thing I discussed above. The NP calculation could be weighted towards the recent end, if the research were to be done to support it, ((and it, (the standard deviation) IS computed from ALL the last 10 races)).

There remains the fact that while it is very unlikely that a horse will "break out" from it's established behavior patterns, I still have to look at the recent races to see at what position in the range the hoss will likely run today. I need all the help I can get.

I'd like to jump in here and give my opinion on this..
from what I've seen and observed , using one line can obscure the horses future performance or his past performances. New Pace can give you , like you've said, a broad range on what you can expect the horse to run to.
Take for instance this example:
Using the last good line can put the horse on top in RDSS or any other software...but in New Pace hes not one of the 4 contenders..So what is that telling you??? Yes , he ran a race that he's most likely not going to reproduce again...The opposite is true also..you might not have a good line but his back numbers shows he can run with the bunch he's in now...and at great odds..
In the end your trending on thin ice on just concentrating on one line and not using the whole PP

Mike