A Saratoga Saturday

[Latekick]

Throughout the year i find myself occasionally wondering, "why am i already thinking of the summer meets" or "Maybe the only reason i enjoy Saratoga is because everyone else talks about it". After a few brief moments of these thoughts i snap back into reality that it is simply one of the most elite meets in racing. It has been, is currently, and always will be one of the greatest tracks to invest time and money and possibly acquire the most profits. I am humbly reminded at the beginning of every summer just how foolish i was that those thoughts even crossed my mind earlier in the year. It is a meet with Graded stakes on Wednesdays, World class horses on weekends, and possibly my favorite of all, high class Monday racing. Hard to not love this place.

With all of that aside, i am writing this for the purpose of the races today. I am in two contest today that will start in the 5th race, and todays card looks as though there will be some spots to make some moves to take first place in hopefully both contest. I will try my best to update this thread as the day goes on and hopefully see where some of you out there on landing and the way you are approaching the Saratoga races today. I hope that this thread can become a place to discuss Saratoga races, whether that is today, tomorrow, next week, or next month! I always enjoy sharing my thoughts and seeing how others using the same program i am using come up with different selections and ideas. Lets see what we can do today!

[barb craven]

Hi Latekick. I just saw this thread after I posted at some length on the thread Old Ideas Work by Tim Y. I've found a way, using RDSS to get most of the Turf races at Saratoga. This is only in the very new stages - just 26 races with 22 wins in the top 4 contenders. Read it and tell me what you think. Maybe my post should be moved over here. I'll ask Ted when he gets back from his birthday celebrations.

I've been privileged to be at Saratoga at the RDSS/PA meet several times and agree strongly with you that it is the classiest and most people (family) friendly track there is. I haven't been for a couple of years and miss it. And yes, there is money to be had.
Cheers Barb

[Latekick]

Hi Barb,

First off thanks for sharing your find. I am in the same boat as you when it comes to using RDSS. I tend to find ways to manipulate RDSS to let it do the work and i analyze in the data that it produces. I love working with RDSS and studying the best possible ways to input the most effective information, because in the end, what you get out of it is only as good as what you put into it. So i am very glad to see you have figured out a way to manipulate the program in a way that provides constant results if done the right way!

Your thread is very informative, i do have a few questions however if your willing to answer.

First, will you use the best two TPP lines even if one of them/ or both of them are dirt lines? Same for sprint and route lines, will you use one sprint and one route if that is all the horse has to offer? Will you use two spirit lines in a route if the horse has never routed?

Next, Do you worry at all about layoff horses? Meaning will you still go 6 and 7 back for the two best TPP lines if the horse is coming off of a longer than 90 day layoff, or, do you try to stick to the best of the last three comparable races?

I believe that this idea and method may become a major teaching point to those who want to use RDSS. Turf racing is tricky, but if one is able to input this kind of information into such a powerful tool like RDSS, the profits can be astounding. I love what we have here, I'm always a fan of learning new ways to study RDSS and ways to use it. Thank you for sharing and i will be giving this a try today!

[barb craven]

Hi latekick To answer your questions - most can be answered by saying Best 2 TPP lines period, if they are turf lines. Doesn't seem to matter whether they are sprint or route or how far back you have to go. I've been told by Richie P., coming from Jim Bradshaw, that turf horses don't have a form factor.

I'm still working out how to solve the lines if there is only 1 turf line and the rest dirt, or if there are only dirt lines. If there is only 1 turf line, that's what I'll use. If there are only dirt lines, I think I will use the top 2 TPP as well. I'm still not sure how that will play out. Maybe rmath has run across that. I'll ask him. At Saratoga, that hasn't much of a problem so far, but if there was only 1 turf line I would leave it at that, and if only dirt, that I don't know yet.
I'm starting to work Woodbine where there a lot of horses that have only run on poly. Other years I've had no trouble interchanging turf and poly lines, but with the new poly surface I'm not sure. So far I've worked 6 races and had 5 in the top 4 tiers.

This still so new I'm sure there will be a lot more questions after a couple of hundred races. Thanks for your interest. If you have any ideas, lets explore them here.
Barb

[Latekick]

That makes sense to me i like that idea of line selection when it comes to these turf races. I had also read on here the idea of turf horses not having as major of a form factor so going back past 4 or 5 lines should not cause any problems. You have obviously had some success with it so far.

As with everything, I'm going to go back through some cards and re-work some turf races and see the similarities between all of the winners and the line selections i chose.

I also want to post a few Del Mar races today, since Saratoga is off the turf and i am also in a Del Mar contest today so what i will do is post the turf races from there today and see how we can work them. Id like to see ho you analyze these races as well, if you have the card downloaded and your up for the task of course.

[barb craven]

I can't guarantee the whole card, but go ahead.
Ted wanted me to try this on DelMar seeing as he will be out there in a few weeks.

[Lt1]

Rich that one came off turf. I ended up with the same 4 horses as you.
Tim

[Latekick]

I want to post the 8th race from today, Thursday, at Saratoga. This race propelled me to a 2nd place finish in a small $500 contest i was in today and was a key race for me in my own wagering.

The first thing i want to bring up about this race is line selection. As Barb reminded me the other day, turf horses usually dont have a specific form cycle. You will notice that i used lines 4 and 5 back for a few horses, and would have been willing to go back even further if it was necessary. Line selection on turf and line selection on dirt are a bit different, for me at least.

Next, i often find myself as i am sure many of you others do as well, overthinking things. Earlier in the day i had a #1 ranked horse win at 5/1 and i didn't bet him or use him in my contest because i got to caught up in a class drop he was making, but in hindsight it was a necessary class drop and should have been used everywhere in my contest and my wagering. You will notice that #3 PROMOTIONAL is the top ranked horse in the field. That was encouraging but what allowed me to use her in my contest play and also bet heavily in my own wagering was the fact that all of the most important readouts for this type of race, fit to a T. She was top ranked in HID energy as well as top ranked in TT and 2nd in LPR. This was a standout to me, as i am sure it was to many of you. Sometimes you just have to keep it simple!

With all of that being said, if any of you had this horse today or any different opinions on this race, feel free to share.

[Tim Y]

2nd best turf line in the entire field made Promotional a contender. 11/04/15 AQU T 11.00 fm

[Tim Y]

had the 3rd and 4th best turf paces of race as well 4/09/16 TAM T 8.50 fm 5/18/16 BEL t 10.00 fm