THE BELMONT - The Third Leg - Pace and Cap

Mr.Pagine · 06-07-2013, 08:01 PM

Busy day tomorrow, so here goes:

1) Revolutionary
2) Unlimited Budget
3) Overanalyze

May all your wagers cash.

pktruckdriver · 06-07-2013, 08:28 PM

Frac Daddy.

Longshot upset in the mud.

Gls

JimG · 06-08-2013, 11:17 AM

My Picks are:

Oxbow

Orb

Unlimited Budget

Jim

alydar_ David · 06-08-2013, 02:03 PM

The Belmont -- Saturday, June 8, 2013

These are the entrants with program numbers and Morning Line Odds:

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Here are my Fair Odds and Bet Odds:

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For example, I'll be happy to bet #5 Orb to win at 7.3 to 1. He'll probably go off the favorite so you'll never get those odds.

In order of probability of winning go down the list looking for the lowest Fair Odds numbers.

For example:

#5 Orb 5.7
#9 Revolutionary 7.5
#14 Golden Soul 8.8
#6 Incognito 11.0
#3 Overanalyze 11.3
etc.

Ted Craven · 06-08-2013, 04:15 PM

I've never had a less clear feeling about this race

I may bet $2 or $3 on it ...

Here's what I get, which includes a fair dollop of 'interpretation', so anything could happen, and likely will.

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alydar_ David · 06-08-2013, 04:41 PM

I'm with you, Ted. This pretty much summarizes my feelings:

Handicapping the Wild Kingdom

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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...wsj.html?dsk=y

Ted Craven · 06-08-2013, 05:01 PM

Someone just called me (as he does about 1 hour to post on each year's Belmont Stakes) and asks me who I like. I told him it would not surprise me if the 'mothership' descended on the far turn and deposited the spirit of Secretariat just to mess with us.

He told me to get serious, so I picked my top horse and told him to bet it for me too. He's still spending his winnings from the 2008 Belmont Exacta of Da'Tara and Dennis of Cork.

I still love to watch this race each year!

Ted

rmath · 06-08-2013, 05:58 PM

Ted, just curious as to why you used the KY Derby line for ORB?

Ted Craven · 06-08-2013, 06:06 PM

Well ... I guess my thinking was: every other line except his good old February GP line makes him look worse than he already does (on BL/BL). So why rate him off that when he's since proven his ability against many of these same horses. All things being equal, I try to err on the side of recency.

That was my thinking, though this race is bizarre, to me

Ted

chrisl · 06-08-2013, 06:23 PM

I have landed on the #11,#13,#9 we will see

06-07-2013, 08:28 PM	#2
pktruckdriver Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Saratoga Springs Posts: 1,547	Frac Daddy. Longshot upset in the mud. Gls __________________ http://pktruckdriver.blogspot.com/

06-08-2013, 02:03 PM	#4
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	The Belmont -- Saturday, June 8, 2013 These are the entrants with program numbers and Morning Line Odds: Here are my Fair Odds and Bet Odds: For example, I'll be happy to bet #5 Orb to win at 7.3 to 1. He'll probably go off the favorite so you'll never get those odds. In order of probability of winning go down the list looking for the lowest Fair Odds numbers. For example: #5 Orb 5.7 #9 Revolutionary 7.5 #14 Golden Soul 8.8 #6 Incognito 11.0 #3 Overanalyze 11.3 etc.

06-08-2013, 05:01 PM	#7
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,853	Someone just called me (as he does about 1 hour to post on each year's Belmont Stakes) and asks me who I like. I told him it would not surprise me if the 'mothership' descended on the far turn and deposited the spirit of Secretariat just to mess with us. He told me to get serious, so I picked my top horse and told him to bet it for me too. He's still spending his winnings from the 2008 Belmont Exacta of Da'Tara and Dennis of Cork. I still love to watch this race each year! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

06-08-2013, 05:58 PM	#8
rmath Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,676	Ted Ted, just curious as to why you used the KY Derby line for ORB?

06-08-2013, 06:23 PM	#10
chrisl Grade 3 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Ketchikan AK/Sacramento Ca Posts: 64	I have landed on the #11,#13,#9 we will see __________________ Does not get any better than, having a couple of halibut in your hands

06-07-2013, 08:01 PM	#1
Mr.Pagine Happy Punting Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Toronto, Ontario Posts: 481	THE BELMONT - The Third Leg Busy day tomorrow, so here goes: 1) Revolutionary 2) Unlimited Budget 3) Overanalyze May all your wagers cash.

06-08-2013, 11:17 AM	#3
JimG Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 992	My Picks are: Oxbow Orb Unlimited Budget Jim

06-08-2013, 04:15 PM	#5
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,853	I've never had a less clear feeling about this race I may bet $2 or $3 on it ... Here's what I get, which includes a fair dollop of 'interpretation', so anything could happen, and likely will. __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

06-08-2013, 04:41 PM	#6
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	I'm with you, Ted. This pretty much summarizes my feelings: Handicapping the Wild Kingdom http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...wsj.html?dsk=y Last edited by alydar_ David; 06-08-2013 at 04:48 PM.

06-08-2013, 06:06 PM	#9
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,853	Well ... I guess my thinking was: every other line except his good old February GP line makes him look worse than he already does (on BL/BL). So why rate him off that when he's since proven his ability against many of these same horses. All things being equal, I try to err on the side of recency. That was my thinking, though this race is bizarre, to me Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

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