Running Style Question - Pace and Cap

smilingtiger · 08-01-2008, 09:06 PM

Hi. My first post here. I reside in Kitchener, about 60 miles southwest of Woodbine.
Running styles: Something that I find confusing is that the running style that I appoint to a horse by eyeballing winning or close efforts, is sometimes not the same running style as that of the paceline that I picked. For example I'll designate a horse Early because of a winning effort 6 lines back. The line I use may be the last line and the horse ran a 3rd ranked 1st fraction, a 1st ranked 2nd fraction etc. So it doesn't look very Early.
Also once in a while I've picked a wire to wire winner and also used that as a pace line. However I've found that (on some occasions)that the second fraction is stronger than the first.

dcox · 08-02-2008, 10:01 AM

You are confused but exactly what is the question? Hopefully this will prompt some answers from Ted, etc.

smilingtiger · 08-02-2008, 05:49 PM

My question is shouldn't the running style designation be of the paceline that you selected? If the fractional ratings of this horse are ranked as follows:
Fraction 1: #4,
Fraction 2: #2,
Fraction 3: #1
is this still an early horse? Even though six lines back it shows a wire to wire win whereas the paceline selected(one race back) shows the following at first, second and final call:
1st call: 5th, 3 lengths behind leader,
2nd call: 4th, 3 lengths behind leader,
final call: 2nd 1 length behind leader.
My records look funny when I look at the early designation and then look at the fractional velocity rankings.

uncleroughy · 08-02-2008, 10:49 PM

Maybe I'm dumb or just lazy but after hitting the Analysis tab (following paceline selections), I accept the running style designation provided by the RDSS program. Is'nt that OK?

froggy · 08-03-2008, 12:41 AM

Tiger,

The running style designated by the Sartin based programs is based on the feet per second that the horse has in the pace line you selected measured against itself.
Not on visual perception from position calls or any of the other ways done by standard handicapping methods.
For instance you could have a horse that was first at the 1st two calls in all of his pace lines but if he runs the last fraction in super time he could have a designation of something other than early like maybe presser.

Froggy

Tim Y · 08-03-2008, 02:25 AM

Running styles are segmentally defined by distribution.

In his last prep for the K. Derby, War Emblem ran WIRE TO WIRE, on the lead LATE and I knew I had a shot with him that first Saturday in May as many simply stated he was a one dimensional front runner.

Little did the know.

POSITION is only in relation to the pace. MANY MANY earlies run many lengths behind the entire race. IT IS THE HORSE"S ENERGY DISTRIBUTION NOT the position that defines it ......PERIOD, with the exception of the few Barbaro's and Nashua's of the world (Hard Spun too) that are on the lead no matter the pace as POSITIONAL front runners but they are few and far between.

EYEBALLING is too subjective and wlll often be wrong.

RichieP · 08-03-2008, 08:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uncleroughy

Maybe I'm dumb or just lazy but after hitting the Analysis tab (following paceline selections), I accept the running style designation provided by the RDSS program. Is'nt that OK?

That's the way to do it "Rough". Trust what the program is telling you. Added benefit is you are seeing some races VERY different from the betting public and that leads to good prices.

lsosa54 · 08-03-2008, 08:33 AM

Just to add to the discussion, here are the races I capped at DMR yesterday. Race #, Dist. & surf., Kinetic Generator running style, POS 1st call, BL 1st call, POS 2nd call, BL 2nd call:

R1 8.0 S/P 1 0 1 0
R5 8.5T S 2 0.5 3 0.5
R6 6.5 S 6 5.5 6 2.75
R8 6.0 S/P 2 1.0 1 0
R9 8.5 S 7 11 6 4.75
R10 8.5T S/P 4 8.5 4 4.5

As you can see, on both turf and dirt, sprints and routes, the kgen shows winners running as S or S/P, no matter what the beaten lengths or position. Remember, there are my pace line choices which usually are best of the last 2 of whatever is being run today (dirt sprint, turf route, etc.) with an eye on not unrealistically going back too far for a line. The positions and b/l's were actually those of the winners although if you looked at the paceline races, you would probably find similar positions and b/l's.

Of course, this in and of itself is not much help since all of the contenders except one I put in yesterday were designated S or S/P by the kgen. BTW, I think Zenyatta could have been 25 lengths back at the 1st call - she just cruised, of course at impossible odds.

Wild McDreamie came up as an E/P with a lowish ML. Went off @ 5-1 and finished dead last. Of course, this was my only contender all day that was designated anything other than S or S/P and I would say most of my pace lines were not from DMR - mostly HOL with a couple from SA.

partsnut · 08-03-2008, 11:20 AM

Hopefully this post will help some that have questions about race shape, running styles etc. It may confuse some as well.
I'd be happy to answer whatever question anyone might have.
I use PaceAppraiser and the BRIS PP Generator.
I used todays 8th race at SAR as an example.
I am not an exacta bettor but entered the contest for pure entertaiment value and it has been that for me. Win or lose, I am enjoying it. Ritchie did a nice job.

socantra · 08-03-2008, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by partsnut

Hopefully this post will help some that have questions about race shape, running styles etc. It may confuse some as well.
I'd be happy to answer whatever question anyone might have.
I use PaceAppraiser and the BRIS PP Generator.

Nice display Partsnut. I'm looking forward to the day that Randy gets his past performances going. I'm hoping that he has enough in there that I can use them as a stand alone.

People should probably be aware that Randy uses visual, positional running styles. There is nothing wrong with that. Jim Bradshaw used them, Tom Brohammer, Jim Craner and any number of other people.

Tim is right about them being very subjective. Every person I know of that uses visual running styles defines them differently and uses them for slightly different purposes. They do not mix and match well. Make sure you understand the particular flavor you are dealing with.

The lattler day Sartin Methodology running styles are defined by how the horse distributes its energy during the race, originally taken from various percentages of %Early. I suppose they probably use %Median now. They do have the advantage of being largely hidden from the general public, since they are generated by the software.

No matter what you use, its going to steer you wrong a fair percntage of the time and be a great help a fair percentage of the time. I use both Randy Giles visual position running styles and Sartin energy distribution styles. When they disagree I feel I have some extra information and a decision to make. Learn your tools well.

Dick.

08-02-2008, 05:49 PM	#3
smilingtiger AlwNW2X Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 24	Running Style Question My question is shouldn't the running style designation be of the paceline that you selected? If the fractional ratings of this horse are ranked as follows: Fraction 1: #4, Fraction 2: #2, Fraction 3: #1 is this still an early horse? Even though six lines back it shows a wire to wire win whereas the paceline selected(one race back) shows the following at first, second and final call: 1st call: 5th, 3 lengths behind leader, 2nd call: 4th, 3 lengths behind leader, final call: 2nd 1 length behind leader. My records look funny when I look at the early designation and then look at the fractional velocity rankings.

08-03-2008, 12:41 AM	#5
froggy Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Bullhead City Az Posts: 921	Tiger, The running style designated by the Sartin based programs is based on the feet per second that the horse has in the pace line you selected measured against itself. Not on visual perception from position calls or any of the other ways done by standard handicapping methods. For instance you could have a horse that was first at the 1st two calls in all of his pace lines but if he runs the last fraction in super time he could have a designation of something other than early like maybe presser. Froggy Last edited by froggy; 08-03-2008 at 12:45 AM.

08-03-2008, 02:25 AM	#6
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Energy distribution Running styles are segmentally defined by distribution. In his last prep for the K. Derby, War Emblem ran WIRE TO WIRE, on the lead LATE and I knew I had a shot with him that first Saturday in May as many simply stated he was a one dimensional front runner. Little did the know. POSITION is only in relation to the pace. MANY MANY earlies run many lengths behind the entire race. IT IS THE HORSE"S ENERGY DISTRIBUTION NOT the position that defines it ......PERIOD, with the exception of the few Barbaro's and Nashua's of the world (Hard Spun too) that are on the lead no matter the pace as POSITIONAL front runners but they are few and far between. EYEBALLING is too subjective and wlll often be wrong. Last edited by Tim Y; 08-03-2008 at 02:29 AM.

08-03-2008, 08:33 AM	#8
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	Just to add to the discussion, here are the races I capped at DMR yesterday. Race #, Dist. & surf., Kinetic Generator running style, POS 1st call, BL 1st call, POS 2nd call, BL 2nd call: R1 8.0 S/P 1 0 1 0 R5 8.5T S 2 0.5 3 0.5 R6 6.5 S 6 5.5 6 2.75 R8 6.0 S/P 2 1.0 1 0 R9 8.5 S 7 11 6 4.75 R10 8.5T S/P 4 8.5 4 4.5 As you can see, on both turf and dirt, sprints and routes, the kgen shows winners running as S or S/P, no matter what the beaten lengths or position. Remember, there are my pace line choices which usually are best of the last 2 of whatever is being run today (dirt sprint, turf route, etc.) with an eye on not unrealistically going back too far for a line. The positions and b/l's were actually those of the winners although if you looked at the paceline races, you would probably find similar positions and b/l's. Of course, this in and of itself is not much help since all of the contenders except one I put in yesterday were designated S or S/P by the kgen. BTW, I think Zenyatta could have been 25 lengths back at the 1st call - she just cruised, of course at impossible odds. Wild McDreamie came up as an E/P with a lowish ML. Went off @ 5-1 and finished dead last. Of course, this was my only contender all day that was designated anything other than S or S/P and I would say most of my pace lines were not from DMR - mostly HOL with a couple from SA. Last edited by lsosa54; 08-03-2008 at 08:38 AM.

08-03-2008, 11:20 AM	#9
partsnut BetMix User Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 2,433	Hopefully this post will help some that have questions about race shape, running styles etc. It may confuse some as well. I'd be happy to answer whatever question anyone might have. I use PaceAppraiser and the BRIS PP Generator. I used todays 8th race at SAR as an example. I am not an exacta bettor but entered the contest for pure entertaiment value and it has been that for me. Win or lose, I am enjoying it. Ritchie did a nice job. Attached Images

08-01-2008, 09:06 PM	#1
smilingtiger AlwNW2X Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 24	Running Style Question Hi. My first post here. I reside in Kitchener, about 60 miles southwest of Woodbine. Running styles: Something that I find confusing is that the running style that I appoint to a horse by eyeballing winning or close efforts, is sometimes not the same running style as that of the paceline that I picked. For example I'll designate a horse Early because of a winning effort 6 lines back. The line I use may be the last line and the horse ran a 3rd ranked 1st fraction, a 1st ranked 2nd fraction etc. So it doesn't look very Early. Also once in a while I've picked a wire to wire winner and also used that as a pace line. However I've found that (on some occasions)that the second fraction is stronger than the first.

08-02-2008, 10:01 AM	#2
dcox Avid Student Join Date: Jun 2008 Location: Lone Star Park (50 miles) Posts: 50	You are confused but exactly what is the question? Hopefully this will prompt some answers from Ted, etc. __________________ Good luck and good handicapping!

08-02-2008, 10:49 PM	#4
uncleroughy AlwNW3X Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 44	Maybe I'm dumb or just lazy but after hitting the Analysis tab (following paceline selections), I accept the running style designation provided by the RDSS program. Is'nt that OK?