RDSS is like 'spin the bottle' ??!

[lenabugg]

I'll keep all in mine and keep on trucking Thank you all

[mildeu]

Reference post by Alyar David

How would have Golden Soul fit, if adjusted for 5w & 8w?
Especially being in the 4 slot Revolutionary in the 3 slot for the KD.

And how do we accomplish/ address this in RDSS?

[alydar_ David]

Originally Posted by mildeu

Reference post by Alyar David

How would have Golden Soul fit, if adjusted for 5w & 8w?
Especially being in the 4 slot Revolutionary in the 3 slot for the KD.

And how do we accomplish/ address this in RDSS?

For the Derby we had everything -- just about every product you can buy and some you can't. Nothing pointed to a clear winner. And my friend who is an owner and physicality expert was at the track. He couldn't tell either.

In the Sartin programs there is no adjustment for running wide. They do in The Sheets, but not in Thorograph. CJ's program makes note of the bias, but not of running wide.

I don't have the other materials as I tossed them after a couple of days, but I do still have this. You can see how Golden Soul compared to Orb:





Note, with all the expensive material we had at our disposal we still got creamed betting wise.

However, this race was a different story. Look how good she looks here:



Compare that to Orb above. Julia looks like a world beater, right?

What you can't see is that ran somelike like a -7 on Thorograph and figured to bounce to the moon. We had that race with the $70+ winner, the exacta and tri....although we gave it all back Derby day. LOL

The point is there's nothing that's going to win all the time. Don't beat yourself up about one race or going wide. In fact I'm reminded of seeing Angel Cordero Jr. at Saratoga. If the track was fast and firm and he was on the lead and went four wide there was a good reason for it. Cordero was a master of knowing where the "money slot" was. T-graph wouldn't give him extra credit for that. The Sheets would and they'd be wrong.

RDSS is in the upper tier of handicapping products, in my opinion. If you stick with it and use your head you'll be a winner.

[mildeu]

Thank you for your prompt reply and explanations.
I do realize that we may find a program somewhere that might get the
exatas, trifectas and maybe even a superfecta once in a while, thus creating a short term system.
I am using RDSS and having a bit of fun........However
I did not bet THE $70.00 winner...Too good to be true?
An ADD prblem I think...DOI

Anyway thanks.

[lenabugg]

I UNDERSTAND tHANK yOU

[Dorianmode]

Orb was one of my last 4 contenders, CD.5.4.13
A dutched wager on these 4 was > 100% return.

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Dorianmode

Orb was one of my last 4 contenders, CD.5.4.13
A dutched wager on these 4 was > 100% return.

Dorianmode,

Congratulations on getting Orb in the mix of strong contenders. You were one of the very few who had Ord ranked favorably. ( I like to give props to Atkinsrr who also questioned Ord's second paceline back as a legitimate contender and Bill Lyster, who pointed out that Orb overcame a powerful pace and that Orb had some strong pace fractions.)

Most software programs did not favor Orb. The one software which favored Orb strongly was Michael Pizzolla's software but the man himself went with another contender. (Vyjack?? not sure)

Key Thorograph followers strongly went with Orb as he was one of two contenders who had strong numbers (negative 2) 2nd paceline back. In fact, one of the key owners of Falling Sky was cheering so loudly for Orb as he crossed the finish line much to the chagrin of other owners around him. The owner had placed a futures bet on Orb months ago and posted this info publicly.

Dorianmode,

Can you do a small favor?? Would you post the same readout above but with Golden Soul's 5th paceline back. ( maiden victory at CD )

The adjusted screen: Where is Golden Soul ranked on FX rankings.. I am sure that the paceline is sustained..

Thanks in advance..

[Dorianmode]

Golden Soul's maiden win 5 back was a significant late pace performance. However it was not repeated agiain in the next 4 races. But they also were not at Churchill Downs. In any case, even going back that far, it doesn't look so good.

I have found that EPR is a significant predictor in dirt routes ... and Ted had the brilliant suggestion that it probably has to do with the position of the horse on the 2nd call.

[JimG]

Originally Posted by lone speed

The one software which favored Orb strongly was Michael Pizzolla's software but the man himself went with another contender. (Vyjack?? not sure)

Yes and No. I read that post on Pace Advantage as well. Using Michael's older program, Master Magician, Orb was ranked on top if you sorted the horses by PBS rating. Out of the box, Orb was not ranked high as Michael recommends sorting by PPF in Master Magician in route races.

Michael uses BLAM and while he made a recreational bet on the race, did not recommend betting serious money on it as BLAM saw the race wide open.

Suffice it to say, even given his relative short price, Orb was not an easy find using most commercial software products. While a wonderful race to watch, the Derby is just one race in a day/week/month/year filled with opportunity.

[zimal2]

No one mentions that 3 yr olds are capable of significant improvent that is difficult to predict with Rdss and most programs. We can assume I suppose that all horses entered in the Derby are fit and ready but that doesn't allow us to know who likes the surface, pace pressure, etc. Vyjack was a popular selection and a contender for many at least for a piece. Who predicted he would push the pace?