Auto paceline templates /Betting real money testing it - Page 4 - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 10-25-2009, 05:01 PM

The key horse #7 goes 8/1 and places.

Exacta, tri and super are in final 5 posted after scratches.

tfm · 10-25-2009, 05:19 PM

Rich

I didn't play these races but I had the NYRA show on and it was mentioned that Bankrock had a perfect trip last out and that Pennington would be loose and tough to beat. Just before the race I pulled out the chart for their last race. (I've attached it below.)

Let's assume, that Banrock got a perfect trip because he was able to come through on the inside. I don't really look at pace in these races so I don't know whether the pace was supposed to be slow or fast. What I do know is what I see:

A race where there's only one horse that passes more than a single horse in the race. In fact, Banrock passes 4 horses in a race that went 1-2-3 (qtr & half positions) otherwise. In other words, HE, not the others, got the worst of it.

Now, I don't know how this relates to pace and I'm always puzzled by what the pace handicappers have to say. I'd rather let the horses and the race SHOW me how it was run (and who it favored).

BJennet · 10-25-2009, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP

Testing my selector template on today's NYB turf stakes at Belmont. Hope they run them with this being last day for the meet what would they "save it" for?

Anyway here is the 7th race "Ticonderoga" going 9f

Top 3 Bl/Bl (2,7,4)have good gap and own most of corollaries.

The #7 Love Code is highest ml odds of the 3 at 5/1 and also appears to be positionally advantaged looking at his EP style.

Hi Richie,

It seems to me, in stakes races, APV is often deadly. Clearly this was an extremely contentious race, although I had the winner as #2 TE off its last race, I liked the #7 better for the win. In any case standard Sartin practice would have made them both plays, given that the #2 and #4 were overbet, and possibly the #2 could be thrown out for its poor record on softer turf.

Thanks for posting this.

Cheers,

B Jennet

RichieP · 10-25-2009, 05:26 PM

The key #1 went 11/1 and had nothing.

Chalk wins and place horse not in mix.

Thanks everyone for jumping in etc

RichieP · 10-26-2009, 05:26 PM

Today was the 1st day since I started thread (honest) that I jumped back in with my method as outlined in earlier posts. Why? Honestly it is brutal amount of work to do by hand man and I dont have the time like that anymore.

Very simple I do my lines for all tracks with my template then straight to Bl/Bl and hide 1 at a time from bottom up til there are 5 guys left. Then it is to TS conditionals and I enter all 3 top Bl/Bl horses with a 9/2 at 0 mtp conditional win bet for 2 beans.

Very simple and so far incredibly consistent hitting right around the 15% mark which I know is good % for higher odds bets. From 8 betting days with real money I have 7 winning days and 1 losing day betting ALL these horses.

This was day 8 of my auto template doing ONLY the races I described earlier. If you check the races/bets shown you will see they are EXACTLY the types I described with NO deviations. These are the ONLY races I am betting this month on my TS account.

RichieP · 10-27-2009, 07:53 AM

Well over 200 auto bets now with NO handicapping of any kind.

Ted here is hoping you can work some magic man stuff on the new release
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoZUQ0QC19c

Ted Craven · 10-27-2009, 08:17 AM

It's very impressive Rich and I am certainly continuing work on RDSS 2.0. Looking forward to what you will do with a selection template like this!

I particularly like the consistency you seem to be reporting. What was it - just one losing day of minus single digit ROI - the rest positive?

Don't kill yourself to prove a point: it seems kind of unlikely that unless you get 'creative', you will all of a sudden lose large percentages of your bankroll daily. Even if you encounter a few more back-to-back losing days of single digits ROI - so your cumulative ROI reduces to +10%...what a shame

I think TwinSpires does not permit Place Pool conditional betting, otherwise some of your bets could probably be made in the Place pool, what to speak of Exacta-as-win-bets. I'm pretty sure the proposed RDSS betting module will handle this. (Too bad I can't open a TwinSpires account

).

I know you are taking time to smell the roses too, and care for those around you. But I know you know how to work hard, and thanks for this inspiration!

Ted

BJennet · 10-27-2009, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP

Today was the 1st day since I started thread (honest) that I jumped back in with my method as outlined in earlier posts. Why? Honestly it is brutal amount of work to do by hand man and I dont have the time like that anymore.

Very simple I do my lines for all tracks with my template then straight to Bl/Bl and hide 1 at a time from bottom up til there are 5 guys left. Then it is to TS conditionals and I enter all 3 top Bl/Bl horses with a 9/2 at 0 mtp conditional win bet for 2 beans.

Very simple and so far incredibly consistent hitting right around the 15% mark which I know is good % for higher odds bets. From 8 betting days with real money I have 7 winning days and 1 losing day betting ALL these horses.

This was day 8 of my auto template doing ONLY the races I described earlier. If you check the races/bets shown you will see they are EXACTLY the types I described with NO deviations. These are the ONLY races I am betting this month on my TS account.

Hi Richie,

Glad to see the excellent work is going forward. I just wanted to throw in a study I did of TE over the last few months that's a slightly different take on the autopaceline concept, in case some aspect of it might be useful.

I mainly began this to check what seemed to me to be the improved performance of TE, having switched from SpecPa to Spec 160. Filtering out races for 2yos, 3yos, all maidens, and all races under 10k, I selected pacelines by the standard Sartin best (TE for this study) of last three, same distance, same surface.

Over 1140 races (but with little change after the first 200), these were the win rates by TE rank:

1. .38
2. .25
3. .21
4. .10
5. .05

This confirmed to me that one of the big improvement of this software over earlier Sartin software whose results Doc tabulated in the later Follow Ups, is that it clusters more winners among the top 3 TE ranks. If you go through the many worksheets posted in the Follow Up, you find that the hit rates of the Top BL/BL horses (which are basically ranked by TE) taper off much more gradually.

As far as the average mutuel of the top three, by TE rank:

1. $7.40
2. $10.00
3. $12.20

This confirmed for me a truth that your study also seems to be finding, and that Doc asserted in one of his more honest Follow Ups, that most of the profits from using the methodology could only be found in about 20% of races. And that was 10-15 years ago, when prices were better. I would say that now, it's about 15% (talking only about win betting).

However the upside is demonstrated by your results. If you set minimum odds a bit higher, the profits are still there. When Guy first talked to me about the Spec software, he told me that by cherrypicking tracks and only playing horses at odds of 6/1 or greater, he was making 200% profit. I wondered if he had gotten hold of some medical marijuana. But after I began to see the average mutuels (which didn't change much) during my early period of my study, I simply adjusted the minimum odds at about two ticks above hit rate - TE- 1. 3-1 TE 2.5-1, and TE 3. 7-1. The results over 1140 races- 200% ROI. What's really strange about this is that it produced nearly the exact same ROI at each rank, even though there were many more plays for TE -1 than the other two. Now obviously this could be an outlier, but there was very little variance in the results.

I'm putting this out there so that if you or anyone else who's interested, can check this out against their own results and see if you get anything similar.

Best of luck.

Cheers,

B Jennet

RichieP · 10-27-2009, 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BJennet

Hi Richie,

I just wanted to throw in a study I did of TE over the last few months that's a slightly different take on the autopaceline concept, in case some aspect of it might be useful.

Cheers,

B Jennet

Hi "B"
This is awesome stuff!

I was on the phone with Barb when I read your post and she told me she also favors total energy so she is for sure checking your post out going forward.

I'm definitely checking it out and I love your minimum odds layout cause unless you are getting a 3/1 on a strong top rank buck I can't make money on lower odds horses. Just going "gut feel" your odds minimums shown are totally in my comfort zone

Thanks for sharing and I will definitely let you know what I see going forward a bit

Tu Salute "B"!

RichieP · 10-27-2009, 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

I know you are taking time to smell the roses too, and care for those around you. But I know you know how to work hard, and thanks for this inspiration!

Ted

Ted I know you are working tons of lonely hours behind a keyboard and screens to make something special. All I can say is DO IT baby do it!!!!

Really good vibes!

You are also a good friend to both Mom and me so I am very lucky man indeed. Now if we could only get your Mum home for a while to do some races!!

Listen to these 2 go at it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FlaY...eature=related

10-25-2009, 05:01 PM	#31
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Race 7 Result The key horse #7 goes 8/1 and places. Exacta, tri and super are in final 5 posted after scratches. Attached Images

10-25-2009, 05:19 PM	#32
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	Rich I didn't play these races but I had the NYRA show on and it was mentioned that Bankrock had a perfect trip last out and that Pennington would be loose and tough to beat. Just before the race I pulled out the chart for their last race. (I've attached it below.) Let's assume, that Banrock got a perfect trip because he was able to come through on the inside. I don't really look at pace in these races so I don't know whether the pace was supposed to be slow or fast. What I do know is what I see: A race where there's only one horse that passes more than a single horse in the race. In fact, Banrock passes 4 horses in a race that went 1-2-3 (qtr & half positions) otherwise. In other words, HE, not the others, got the worst of it. Now, I don't know how this relates to pace and I'm always puzzled by what the pace handicappers have to say. I'd rather let the horses and the race SHOW me how it was run (and who it favored). Attached Images

10-25-2009, 05:26 PM	#34
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	9th Result The key #1 went 11/1 and had nothing. Chalk wins and place horse not in mix. Thanks everyone for jumping in etc Attached Images

10-26-2009, 05:26 PM	#35
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Back to the grind today Today was the 1st day since I started thread (honest) that I jumped back in with my method as outlined in earlier posts. Why? Honestly it is brutal amount of work to do by hand man and I dont have the time like that anymore. Very simple I do my lines for all tracks with my template then straight to Bl/Bl and hide 1 at a time from bottom up til there are 5 guys left. Then it is to TS conditionals and I enter all 3 top Bl/Bl horses with a 9/2 at 0 mtp conditional win bet for 2 beans. Very simple and so far incredibly consistent hitting right around the 15% mark which I know is good % for higher odds bets. From 8 betting days with real money I have 7 winning days and 1 losing day betting ALL these horses. This was day 8 of my auto template doing ONLY the races I described earlier. If you check the races/bets shown you will see they are EXACTLY the types I described with NO deviations. These are the ONLY races I am betting this month on my TS account. Attached Images Last edited by RichieP; 10-26-2009 at 05:28 PM.

10-27-2009, 07:53 AM	#36
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Updated totals thru yesterday Well over 200 auto bets now with NO handicapping of any kind. Ted here is hoping you can work some magic man stuff on the new release http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoZUQ0QC19c Attached Images

10-27-2009, 08:17 AM	#37
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,865	It's very impressive Rich and I am certainly continuing work on RDSS 2.0. Looking forward to what you will do with a selection template like this! I particularly like the consistency you seem to be reporting. What was it - just one losing day of minus single digit ROI - the rest positive? Don't kill yourself to prove a point: it seems kind of unlikely that unless you get 'creative', you will all of a sudden lose large percentages of your bankroll daily. Even if you encounter a few more back-to-back losing days of single digits ROI - so your cumulative ROI reduces to +10%...what a shame I think TwinSpires does not permit Place Pool conditional betting, otherwise some of your bets could probably be made in the Place pool, what to speak of Exacta-as-win-bets. I'm pretty sure the proposed RDSS betting module will handle this. (Too bad I can't open a TwinSpires account ). I know you are taking time to smell the roses too, and care for those around you. But I know you know how to work hard, and thanks for this inspiration! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™