When Pigs Fly...

[Bill Lyster]

This came from last Thursday at Hollywood. Its an example of enough MC 25000 horses graduating so that this one was finally good enough. I've been throwing this one out of my analyses since mid summer. I did it again and finally paid for it. The best TPR in this race was from over a 5 month layoff and so the consistent plodder finally breaks its maiden. Probably heading for 5000 claimer lifetime NWx2! I didn't look hard at the competition, my bad.

The first screen shot shows Daniella Roth, 0/26 with few other placements, and her TPR (CPR) history. Notice how no matter what the pace she always runs to a 170 to 171 total and almost the same early numbers as late, plus or minus a few?

The 2nd screen shot shows all the other horses in the field with either their best of last three and in the case of the 7 -its best ever on its first time out 719 days ago. The crowd made this one a big favorite even though its last out TPR (the only race this year) totaled 165, about 8 TPR points below the top. If you believed its best, the race is over. If you take the 7 away, then the 4 and 8 are the only two horses in the race and the 4 is coming into this race off a 167 day layoff. (screenshot 3) It did have several evenly spaced works, the last three at 5f.

The results are shown last.

Moral of the story is to keep these numbers in context to today's race and not yesterdays or any another day.

[Bill Lyster]

This race also shows the power of TPR (Total Pace Rating) numbers as it relates to contenders and how close they need to be to the top in order to contend for a win.

Add back the beaten lengths to Daniella Roth's total pace ratings and see that horses that beat her consistently ran TPR's in the range of 174.5 to 176.5 and that her efforts in the 171.5-172.5 range were not good enough to beat horses that had 3-4 total pace point advantages.

In "Pace Makes the Race", and probably elsewhere, the authors stated that only horses within 5 points of the top TPR should be considered for win. It also said that the winner most often (not always) came from the top three TPR.

This horse, Daniella Roth, had to be within one or two points of the top horse to actually win this race.

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

This race also shows the power of TPR (Total Pace Rating) numbers as it relates to contenders and how close they need to be to the top in order to contend for a win.

Add back the beaten lengths to Daniella Roth's total pace ratings and see that horses that beat her consistently ran TPR's in the range of 174.5 to 176.5 and that her efforts in the 171.5-172.5 range were not good enough to beat horses that had 3-4 total pace point advantages.

In "Pace Makes the Race", and probably elsewhere, the authors stated that only horses within 5 points of the top TPR should be considered for win. It also said that the winner most often (not always) came from the top three TPR.

This horse, Daniella Roth, had to be within one or two points of the top horse to actually win this race.

Hi Bill,

Thanks for posting this. I don't usually play MC races, but I think it's natural to overlook a horse like this at any level. I often use TE in the way you're using TPR here, and since they're closely correlated, my results tally closely with what you've posted here, especially re clustering at the top. One thing that struck me was that one could have also come to similar conclusions about this race by just using standard Sartin guidelines - using line 3 for the #4 and line 1 for the #8, and using lines only within the last three for the rest of the field - rather than using so many lines. As you point out, the horse was facing one of the weakest it ever had.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[Bill Lyster]

You are right about the handicapping using Sartin guidelines. In fact, Bill V posted his winning analysis of this race.

The point I was making relative to the horse was that it was a "one trick" pony in that it ran the same race every time, ie. TPR about 170. Its the kind of horse that appears highly immune to different paces, so if the winner ran 180, it would lose by 10 lengths, or lose by 5 lengths if the winner ran 175. A small few of the horses we see are like this and its just the recognition of this type that I was highlighting.

This is a horse that you would not adjust as a matcher if you employed the Bradshaw energy equation (2 fifths slower in 3F for every 1 fifth faster in the early parts of race)

Regards,

[Bill Lyster]

You ever hear the phrase, "This horse needs a pace to run at.."? Well, Evita Argentina epitomizes a horse in need of a pace, most of the time.

The past performances via the LPR and TPR numbers show that this horse has one of the highest and most consistent closing fractions. Her very late running style finds her running no better than sixth at the 2nd call (in a 6 horse race, what else). You can look at the races won and in 2 of the 3 there was a sub 45 half mile. Her early placement usually results in an 86 or so EPR and her normal 95-96 close makes her a force for a check most of the time. Note in the slowly run early part of the SA 7f win her early was 79 which allowed a 99.9 close.

Yesterday it looked like two front runners would duel themselves into submission and set it up for Evita. So when you find a horse that repeats its closing fractions, the task becomes to determine if the pace will allow the horse to exert its dominance and win.