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Old 09-15-2021, 12:08 PM   #1
1retired
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Early/Late Difference Graph

I am impressed with the reasoning and thought process of Sam Wada (lueylump), a Sartin alum and star, who made some posts about how horses with a very significant advantage in terms of their Early/Late Difference graph. than the other horses in the race could outrun their speed figures even though they were much less than the other horses in terms of Total Energy and TPR and other factors if they had an Early/Late difference from the other horses of +20. o and up. He proposed that they could outrun their speed figures and win races based on their early advantage. He made some posts on this website as recently as 2016. Has anyone else used this angle to win races and would they be willing to share their workup of races on this idea?

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Old 09-15-2021, 12:12 PM   #2
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Early?Late Difference Graph

Sorry. I'm not very good at posting messages yet but I'll get there. What I wanted to add was, "is there anyone willing to discuss the pros and cons of this angle?
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Old 09-22-2021, 06:33 PM   #3
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Just ask away...It has been the BEST THING in (I used Speculator) that i ever found and I have been around since Phase III

I never found a "CON" with it for over 10 years
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Old 09-22-2021, 10:45 PM   #4
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The e/l is excellent to tell when a bias is there
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Old 09-23-2021, 06:41 AM   #5
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Early/Late Difference Graph

Tim

You, Lone speed, and Raceman have also commented on KLueylump's spot play angle of the E/L Difference.

I have surfed this website datamining for examples and have come up with 6 races which confirm the validity of this idea. I have found NO RACES THat have failed to at least win place or show. I am in the process of starting a thread laying out these 6 races with the relevant factors and trying to get the membership to buy into it and provide more examples to flesh it out, substantiate th e angle and create a profitable situation for the members. It would be important to also show all failing example races so that we are grounded in reality and not making more of this angle than it deserves.

For the race in question, the facgtors that I have identified that are important are: \
(1) EPR difference between top horse and next highest EPR horse. For my 6 horses, this has been at least 6.
(2) E/L difference betweenm the top horse and next highest E/L difference horse. For me and my 6 races, this has been at least 20+
(3) TPR difference between the E/L difference horse and the highest EPR horse in the race. For me, this has been at lteast 11.
(4) Total Energy difference between the E/L horse and the top horse in the race. For me, this has been between 1.5 and 7 which seems to indicate that this spot play angle is very possibly legitimate and not a wild guess.
(5) The odds on the horse
(6). The distance of the race (2 sprints and 4 routes)
(7). The Win, Place and Show prices

Can you, Lone speed and Raceman provide me with some examples?

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Old 09-23-2021, 09:11 AM   #6
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I don't believe you'll find many winners with a 20+ E/L. Those horses are going to most likely have a % Med of over 70.0 % Sure they can win in a certain Match UP. I've seen every horse in the race over 70% , well one of them have to win. These horses are running into a brick wall and stopping on a dime. They have a better chance of winning in a shorter race such as 5F.

For me these horses are a toss and a percentage move, which has served me well.
You should be looking for a range for winners which is the same as % Med , not a specific number. Especially one with a % Med of over 70%. A range of % Med is the same as the red & blue sticks , just that visually it easier for most to comprehend.

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Old 09-23-2021, 12:11 PM   #7
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Early/Late Difference Graph

Mitch

Thanks for your comments.

The two posts that originated this idea came from lueylump who described himself as a 30 year veteran of the Sartin Methodology. As a 30 year veteran of the Methodology, I'm pretty sure that he was aware that most of the time high %M's above a certain level for each distance can't win. Like you say, they stop like they have run into a brick wall. Lueylump also said that the single most important concept from the Sartin Methodology was the MatchUP. I definitely agree with that.

I originally got hooked up with the Sartin Methodology in the early 80's and then had a 30+ years break before coming back to it in the last 2 or 3 years. I never got past Phase III. I think the idea of the %M being a big. point as it was then is or maybe no longer as true as it was in the 80s%. IN any event, I will include %M in the database I use for tracking these winners. It is possible that it could have an impact on my conclusions. Right now I don't have this informartion.

I am not looking for a specific E/L difference number. I am tracking what that difference is for winners with a "large" E/L difference from the other horses. I would also like to point out that 4 of the 7 winning horses in the admittedly limited database are route winners, including Mine That Bird from the 10F Kentucky Derby in 2009.

I have to tell you that the knowledge base withnin this website is really great and I have learned a heck of a lot beyond Phase III. Thanks again for your post.

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Old 09-23-2021, 12:50 PM   #8
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These horses can win in certain Match Up's but their pretty much up against it. The Match Up and todays distance is important.

They can win in a route when nothing is there to challenge them, they may settle and not use themselves up. I.e. their the lone speed. With most of those horses they only have one way of running and that is all out from the start to as far as they can go. Look for evidence they can rate, and confirm that the line you chose that's 70% was an oddly run race for that horse, or was forced to because of a specific Match Up.

This + or - first appeared in PMTR under advanced concepts. That was in Beaten lengths. Sartin loved visual aids, hence the sticks. Actually % Med is more finite and somewhat more accurate. But I also looked at the sticks as those high numbers remind me to look at the Energy Tab on the analysis screen for confirmation along with its PP's Energy Tab.

One asset of either the sticks or the % Med is it helps to steer users away from the Visual ESP which is inaccurate and deceptive. When using ESP to assist with the Match UP it is extremely important to use the computer driven ESP which is obtained by % Med.

You may find more examples at smaller tracks. At higher class tracks they run better 3rd FR.'s so these types are forced to run at lower class tracks and smaller purses. But they can also be found at major tracks by inept trainers who aren't attuned to the deceleration factor and distance limitations of their horses.

My advice with horses 70% and above or with very high deceleration is to ignore them, unless your good with the Match Up and attuned to the distance Factor. They are exceptions and not the norm. You'll catch more winners by doing this.

lueylump was an excellent handicapper and knew when to zig or zag with this over + 20 etc. Few do and its not a hard and fast rule. Exceptions to everything in racing, doubtful at best his ability with this can be duplicated with a few rules.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 09-23-2021 at 01:07 PM.
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Old 09-23-2021, 02:31 PM   #9
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Early/Late Difference Graph

Mitch

Thanks for your comments.

Lueylump made specific comments that said throw out and don't consider any habitual quitters but he added that maiden's quit all the time so you should be more leninet with them. With winners, it's easier to see if they qhuit when headed or not. With quitters, using this angle, I would throw them out.

Your comment about energy brings up a question for me. You have a lot more experience than me. In general do you have any kind of guide or rule regarding how you throw out low energy horses, except in this big E/L Difference situation. Just in general. Do you throw out horses that do not have, for example, the top 5 energy ratings or the top 5 TPR ratings? How do you handle that to get your contenders down to a reasonable number?.

I'm trying to figure out my strategy for handicapping races. I lean toward's Kahunab's approach of letting the computer pick the best of the last 3 at the same distance, surface etcd. That cuts down on my human error. Then, I use a combination of the PMTR scrreen and the Segment screen and the velocity screen, F1, F2, F3 for the Match UP part to narrow it down. I like Kahunab's idea of looking out for too much early speed in the race, 3 or more horses wth E ratings totaling 21 or more Quirin speed points, and turning to OTE type horses when that happens. Unless there is a specific angle that is in play, I also look at and use Rmath's top 5 CSR, VDC, PL, and BPP and I also throw in and consider BL/BL rankings . l'm still in the process of developing this strategy and would appreciate any advice you could give. I want to get more consistent with my process giiven that each race is different.

Right now I'm not looking at MNR, TDN, FL and those type smaller tracks. I've been concentrating on GP (my home track, I live in Naples, FL), CHD, KEE, FG, OP and AP. I'vebe been avoiding the NYRA and the SOCAL tracks because I think the betters are more sophisticated and less likely to let legitimate longshots escape them. o , gm ,

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Old 09-23-2021, 03:27 PM   #10
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Admittedly, I am not a Sartin expert. But maybe I bring fresh eyes. Or maybe I am stupid and don't know it.

In yesterday's 3rd at PID, I had the 6 with the highest E/L and one of the lower TE and TPR ratings based on my line selections. I think the E/L value can sometimes indicate that a horse can exert a lot of energy within some portion of the race. So, I bet the 6 to win. The horse lays off the pace, circles the field near the top of the stretch and draws off to win convincingly. Paid $9.20 after having been 6/1 shortly before post.

My point here is the guidelines are great, but sometimes there is a deeper picture than the basic guidelines reveal. Each race is a puzzle. Sometimes it is a thinking man's game.
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