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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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07-06-2016, 04:33 PM | #11 | |
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Quote:
Ted
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07-06-2016, 06:17 PM | #12 |
Grade 3
Join Date: May 2008
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Tim Y,
Thanks for the in dept answer, lots of food for thought there. |
07-10-2016, 12:43 PM | #13 |
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Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
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I agree with Tim. In working with my final contenders on the Rx screen I often review the line chosen for each horse to 1) see that the line is within the range of each horses ITM performances and importantly, within the range of when the horse wins and 2) that its generally in the range of all winning performances for the distance. If it fails either criteria its not to win for me.
I recall in The Hat's Matchup manual a race where he preliminarilly accepted the horse as a contender only to discard it in the final analysis because the 'qualifying race' did not look right. Jim never really said what the actual basis was and it wasn't until I worked out the horses e/l history that I saw the horse had tried to run early, a +e/l, when all its good races had a decided -e/l value. The Hat did it in his mind!!! Anyway knowing your track's E/L limits is a good thing to know. |
07-11-2016, 04:27 PM | #14 |
turf historian
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Since the E/L is another way to relate how much early there is to final fraction. one could THEORETICALLY substitute other expressions of this and probably get the same result: % median, or deceleration (third fraction ratio to 2nd call)
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09-15-2021, 12:25 PM | #15 |
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Early/Late Difference Graph
Tim
Are you still around? Would you be willing to discuss winners obtained using the Earluy/Late Difference Graph? 1 retired |
09-16-2021, 10:49 PM | #16 |
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Tim Y reached out to me on this topic and I invited him to rejoin P&C to answer if he wanted to.
I think the main points he had to make (and he made them repeatedly over the years) was to know the range of E/L balance which could win for a given race/track/distance. If you keep a model of this figure, it serves as a useful filter to weed out non-contenders who otherwise might appear capable from other races, though not in today's context. Bill Lyster has made this case regularly over the years as well. Ted
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09-22-2021, 05:44 PM | #17 |
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Finally got logged in. I will review what has been posted already and then begin the SAGA of the e/l numbers which I first used to identify IF an early bias was active or not
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09-22-2021, 06:12 PM | #18 |
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Welcome back Tim!
Ted
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09-22-2021, 06:21 PM | #19 |
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I tried to post a long entry but it would not show up. I''ll try again later. QUESTIONS??
OVERALL I think most here understand it is a range you are looking to constantly UPDATR
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Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." Last edited by Tim Y; 09-22-2021 at 06:23 PM. |
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