Non winner of 2 lifetime races

[The Pook]

You looking at the same race?

[The Pook]

The #7 destroyed the field at (3-5). Goes without saying I had no money on him at that price.

Pook

[Bill Lyster]

No, I was commenting on the last Parx race from yesterday.

[thelyingthief]

Those Brohamer guidelines are hardly of use outside major tracks and major meets. They are senseless in NW1 lifetime, etc. As a general rule, throwout horses in the NWL series who have lost multiple times at today's conditions -- UNLESS, they have changed hands recently (form cycle), are coming off a freshening, might be the recipient of a track bias, or have very strong speed rating vis a vis the field. Favorites are ALWAYS vulnerable.

tlt -

[Mark]

]This is a different approach to NW-2L races which I do my best to feast upon:
[ATTACH]39073[/ATTACH.
The extended layoff is the key! The horse returns and this is his 3rd race back. Last race was an improved early race at a higher class.
Look how he fits:

Look at your reward:

There are many ways to approach this game. I just think that PRICE is the key to long term success. I am not impatient and I do not like to bet horses less than 5 or 6/1. Bradshaw was a great handicapper in his time and on Southern California tracks back then.
But most of all: There are no rules!!

[Mark]

Since I butchered that last post and don't know how to change it, my reference to Bradshaw was mistaken, I meant Brohammer. I am a Bradshaw devotee. This doesn't change the point I was trying to make. This #4 horse was a decent sort that had run competitively at higher levels before getting injured. His maiden win makes him the horse to beat. Can you work your way back to that race logically? I think you can and the 3rd start off a substantial layoff will generally be the horse's best if he hasn't been cranked up at the farm or in local workouts at the track.

[Peteman]

Mark, I like your odds value sensibility,I think it is not talked about
enough,just because you handicapped the race means,that you have to play
it.I think it is more important than your method or program,is to get value.

There is not as much dumb money in the pools as there used to be.
Bet my lucky number,cute name angle,the slots and lottery have now taken
a lot of that money.The betting public is a lot sharper than in the past.
And is harder to make a buck today.not as good a prices in the top 2.
I've recently looked at about 800 sprint races,the 1 Rank wins about 30%
and the 3 Rank 16% with about 17 more 10.00 plus mutuals.

I have been betting more crappy trainers if there horse rates.
Did you ever notice when a horse wakes up and has been in poor form.
And pays a big price,that a lot of times if you used a line from 5 or 6
back his numbers look good off that line,match it up to trainers 2nd or
3rd layoff pct. Some trainers bet their horses too.

If your in an ep favoring track or distance do not eliminate 1,2,3 ep
rank unless his Average pace Or TE is 7 or over,this will give you about 2 extra 20.00+ winners every 100 races.

It's probably a good time to learn to match up horses,very few people can.
Or to think like Cramer, Use what the public does not.a little art of war.

I'm rambling

[Mark]

Peterman,
If a person would take the time to study the Hat Check Blog and then practice what you are advised to do, there would be a great many more winning horseplayers and we really would be chasing reduced prices.
Bradshaw didn't pay any attention to most of the stuff the Public bets. No trainers, No jockeys, No track variant, No intertrack variant, No track Bias, none of that stuff!!! It is anti-handicapping handicapping. He used all 10 lines in a horse's past performances to determine how the horse would run today and whether the race would be won Early or OTE.
I don't care where the line is 10th, 5th, 2nd but I know the further back the better the price. People are so strung out on best of the last 3 or no horse without a race in 90 days and all this garbage. There are checks that you make to insure that the horse is still capable but if the horse meets the variegation and figures, that's your horse.
People attempt to combine statistics and those fixed rules to insure they have a sample that will be meaningful. The fact of the matter is there is no sample!! Each horse race is an independent event, like a coin flip, none of that matters. In essence, you ignore what the Public uses to make their wagers for the most part.
The best recommendation I can give to anyone who wants to become profitable wagering on Thoroughbred race horses is study the Hat Check Blog. What Richie P and "The Hat" have given the subscribers of the Pace and Cap website is priceless and it works but first you have to toss all this Hossy stuff folks would have you believe. After all it is a horse race. One horse goes to the lead and the others try to catch him!

[The Pook]

Originally Posted by Mark

Peterman,
If a person would take the time to study the Hat Check Blog and then practice what you are advised to do, there would be a great many more winning horseplayers and we really would be chasing reduced prices.
Bradshaw didn't pay any attention to most of the stuff the Public bets. No trainers, No jockeys, No track variant, No intertrack variant, No track Bias, none of that stuff!!! It is anti-handicapping handicapping. He used all 10 lines in a horse's past performances to determine how the horse would run today and whether the race would be won Early or OTE.
I don't care where the line is 10th, 5th, 2nd but I know the further back the better the price. People are so strung out on best of the last 3 or no horse without a race in 90 days and all this garbage. There are checks that you make to insure that the horse is still capable but if the horse meets the variegation and figures, that's your horse.
People attempt to combine statistics and those fixed rules to insure they have a sample that will be meaningful. The fact of the matter is there is no sample!! Each horse race is an independent event, like a coin flip, none of that matters. In essence, you ignore what the Public uses to make their wagers for the most part.
The best recommendation I can give to anyone who wants to become profitable wagering on Thoroughbred race horses is study the Hat Check Blog. What Richie P and "The Hat" have given the subscribers of the Pace and Cap website is priceless and it works but first you have to toss all this Hossy stuff folks would have you believe. After all it is a horse race. One horse goes to the lead and the others try to catch him!

There is no danger of Joe Public studying and implementing the Matchup process in any great numbers. We at this site are contrarians. Contrarians are few. We understand that the horse runs the race.

Most believe that a race is controlled by trainers, jockeys, owners etc. That there is a gas pedal and a brake pedal and that humans are in control. It is human ego and vanity and that is just the way it is. Some do grind out profits following trainers and other mainstream methods but by default the percentages have to be small.

Not many have the mindset to embrace what Sartin taught. And even fewer to grab a hold of the even more radical Bradshaw teachings. I am proud to be a part of this group and I get a kick out of exchanging ideas and sharing experiences with those of you who contribute. But our group will continue to be relatively small. It is human nature.

Pook

[Mark]

Let's back up here for a minute. The law of diminishing returns applies to all. The stockbroker, lawyer, doctor and even the fledgling horse player. If you do not have the basic competency you run out of clients, defendants, patients or money! The fact that you must obtain a license to become a trainer means that you know enough to pass the test. Training is a grueling profession with extremely long hours and a lot of heartbreak when horses you have put a great deal of time and effort into go bad. There are certainly a lot of easier ways to make a living. So guys that have been around for a while have talent for it or passion or both. My point here is that you have to assume that any horse entered in a race has the potential to win it given the results in his past performances used to determine his chances. When I started to play a lot of minor tracks a little over 10 years ago, it became apparent to me that small barns at tracks like MNR, EVD, DeD and others off the main path are capable of winning with high priced horses. These trainers probably need to cash some tickets to pay their feed bill. They may only have 2 or 3 or 4 horses. I think for the most part these are men and women who have been practicing their trade for decades. They know how to prepare a horse under the radar so that most of the big betters and a lot of the mainstream folks don't pick up on it. The horse I posted earlier is a case in point. I am not attempting to contradict Mr. Bradshaw here because he would get these horses because he evaluated the entire past performance of horse. He did not limit his analysis to the last race or the last 3 or some other arbitrary number. He wanted to know the fastest early pace the horse had ever demonstrated the ability to run against and win or finish very close. Over many decades he developed his understanding of when and when not to use these old deep lines. He could piece together parts of different lines from experience to make a line that I can't see in the pps.
Over time you start noticing horses like the one I posted. You start to have pattern recognition and intuition about these things. That is not popular because it isn't hard and fast and numerically based which most folks coming to horse racing want to give them confidence in betting their money. Most "Matchers" don't use a program, Bradshaw only used a program at seminars because the Doc made him. After all, the Sartin Methodology sold programs. However, I use RDSS2 because it gives me the ability to stack pacelines so that I can Match the horses better and more easily. I just turned 65 and my short term memory isn't what it was earlier in life. I evaluate "Raw" lines on the Original Screen. Once in a while I will take a peek at the Velocity-POH Screen if I am looking at Sustained horses or the Energy Screen. But these are my ways and they may not be right for everyone. Good Luck to all!