The Early Horse

[THE HAT]

Early Runners

E -- Runners that show in their best races that they are on, or near the lead, or
within a length attempting to get the lead. A winning effort will be achieved only in this manner and
is usually a wire to wire effort

Many individuals identify early speed using the second call, or
add beaten lengths to the first call. All we need to look for is
positions at the first call. During a seminar in Toronto Sandy
Hawley revealed that he was not a handicapper, but if he saw
ones at the first call he knew the horse was a front runner. This
makes if easy in identifying early horses, but determining if the
early horse can win is the big question.

Today early speed is the name of the game, and is a extensive
factor in North American racing. The winner of a race is
decided when the gates open. One horse goes for the lead all of
the others try to catch him. The ability of a horse to conserve his
energy is crucial in a horse race, especially for front runners.
If a horse is forced to run faster early he will go into oxygen
debt and can’t extend his energy the full distance.

Everybody that reads the Daily Racing Form can see if a horse
ran wire-to-wire in his last race and most of the time is made
the betting choice. In most instances these horses are destined
to fail, because of other unidentified early horses in the race.

Horses with hidden early speed is where the match up finds
horse that are overlooked by most handicappers. To identify
these horses it is necessary to explore the total past performance
of the horse.

[Jonathan Steele]

"In most instances these horses are destined to fail, because of other unidentified early horses in the race."

Ah yes, indeed...that is the question to be answered. But how does one? Dr. William Quirin tried to address that with his Quirin Speed Points and most recently, Steve Klein with his Klein Speed Points but still you have those surprise early speed horses. How exactly does one or can one really do that?

Jon

[THE HAT]

Jon
I am preparing material that should help everyone with The Match Up,
but I will send you a race to look over. I believe this will really help you.

Jim "The Hat"

[shoeless]

Jim,I would be interested in that as well.Jeff

[dectivelemmycaution]

Hi,

I love the Match Up! Are tapes of this lecture around somplace for sale?

Friday night May 26 at Hollywood Park the ESP was picture perfict and the only speed in the race won ww in a six horse field! Thanks


HOLLYWOOD PARK Jump to race: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
Friday, May 26, 2006
Weather: Clear. 61. Track Fast
Off Times in Local P.M. Time, Unless Otherwise Noted.
1st Race, Next Post 7:35 Off: 7:07
7 1/2 Furlongs. 4 Year Olds And Up Claiming ($8,000) Purse: $11,580
# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
2 Halo Ms. Lion Baze M C 121 41.60 20.40 7.20
5 Playful Blint Cohen D 121 15.40 5.00
1 Phinadanz (BRZ) Ochoa J 114 2.80
Times in 5ths: :222 :444 1:093 1:231 1:302
Times in 100ths: :22.43 :44.83 1:09.78 1:23.20 1:30.51
Claimed: She's a Bold Lady by Miller Peter (Campochiaro Guy and G-Racing), Mercedes Dancer by Mulhall Kristin (Oak West Farm ),
Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.
Also ran: Stonecutter, She's a Bold Lady and Mercedes Dancer
Winning Trainer: Vargas J Buenaventura - Owner: Knudson, Vern and Vargas, J. B.
$1 Exacta (2-5) Paid $105.50
$2 Quinella (2-5) Paid $106.80
$1 Trifecta (2-5-1) Paid $554.60

[VoodooFan]

Glad that the Master of the MatchUp is back. Everytime you speak on the matchup, I find something I did'nt know that I thought I understood. I have a few questions that can be answered now or whenever. 1)How is Doc Sartin, or what is the state of affairs when you talked/seen him last? 2)In a lecture you did, you said, "the MatchUp hasn't changed that much. But you added new teaching illustrations/wrinkles to understanding the matchup such as: 2a)Positions- Paceless race-Other-than-early horses that "Head" each other at the 2Call, setting up for a Sustained or Late to win the race. 2b)Positions-at 6 1/2f, an early horse breaks 1st or 2nd before getting the lead at the 1st quarter at 21.3......but two races at 6f, the horse breaks 4th to 5th positon before the the quarter, and doesn't get the lead at a 22. You concluded that this horse cant normally run a 21.3 AND needs a "boost" coming out of a chute. 2c)Postions-Other-than-early horses that need-the-lead at the 2nd call to win. 2d)Positions-Other-than-early horses that need-to-lead at the stretch to win the race. 2e)Positions-Horse A normally needs to sit about 3rd (1stcall,2ndcall????), the best he can get today is 6th; he needs to pass 3 horses to get his normal postion, which is going to cost him 3 units of energy at the end of the race. Are there any new wrinkles to the MatchUP???? From your recent example on this post, which I appreciate tremendously, I found I still did not understand ESP. To my understanding , you have Need-To-Lead early horses, EarlyPressers Type 1) will sit 2nd no matter what fraction: 2hd 2hd, 2nk 2nk, 2 1 1/2 2 1 1/2, 2 1/2 1hd, 2nk 1no, 2 1 1/2 1nk, etc., EarlyPresser Type 2) no less than 3rd: 3 1 1/2 2hd, 3hd 1hd, 3 1/2 2 1/2, etc., SustainedPresser:Any postion at 1st call within about 3 1/2 lengths, 2nd call position no less than 3rd within 1 length. Last question: I hope you will do another lecture. Joey Reay audio was great capturing hours of your lectures and a handful of sample races to follow. Anyone listening to these cannot help but be addicted to learning nothing but the MatchUp for thoroughbreds. If you have copies of other lectures, I hope you will make them available, or I could make copies of the maybe 3 to 6 hours of you lecturing on the matchup with about maybe about 5 races to follow along. I hope you continue preaching the "Gospel of VooDoo", Thanks for you post and the gentlemen that helped you.

[THE HAT]

Howdy,
Doc is doing ok. I talk to him about every couple of months.
Position is very important in a horse race. The "break" is where the race starts and if you look at the past performance you can see where the horse need to take over the race to win. If a horse is "Headed" at the first call, we don’t know how far he had to run, fighting to get the lead. but it costs him units of energy and his energy is depleted and he falls back.
I made the statement; "for every unit of energy (fifth of second) a horse depletes early it costs him two units at the end." This statement was later verified by Huey Mahl. I do not have the video you mentioned.

[ClarkWilson]

Originally Posted by THE HAT

Howdy,
Doc is doing ok. I talk to him about every couple of months.
Position is very important in a horse race. The "break" is where the race starts and if you look at the past performance you can see where the horse need to take over the race to win. If a horse is "Headed" at the first call, we don’t know how far he had to run, fighting to get the lead. but it costs him units of energy and his energy is depleted and he falls back.
I made the statement; "for every unit of energy (fifth of second) a horse depletes early it costs him two units at the end." This statement was later verified by Huey Mahl. I do not have the video you mentioned.

Above you gave an abbreviated answer on what happens when a horse is headed. Is it possible to expand on that.

For example, how do we know how many units of energy the horse has used to keep its position.

[sdahl]

Hi Jim. I have completed the first 2 steps and projected the pace. when i compare the projected pace to the horses,what kind of variance do you generally allow before eliminating a horse. Also does this start at the first call, and if the horse is close then you go to the second call or do you primarily look at the finishing time.

[THE HAT]

Stan,
Match running lines of each horse on projected pace, use the complete past
performance, before you eliminate the horse.
The comparing of the lines start at the first call, second call, stretch and
then the final time.

Jim