What's new?

[Segwin]

In going through the followups I see that nothing stood stagnant. It would appear the the Doc would make changes as new methods, information, different innovations appeared such as bl/bl. He also thought that do to the cyclic nature of the horse that last three comparable was the best way.

Anyone doing anything different?

Anyone else picking up where the Doc left off?

[Bill V.]

Hi Terry

The back bone of all the Sartin Methodology has always been about the contender and pace line selection. The programs evolved and some
of the teaching lessons changed. Betting the top 2 choices was fine when nobody was looking at the same information the methodology used.
But once former teachers and programmers went out and copied Doc
Doc had to advance at least 5 years ahead of the crowd. So there were lots of advancements .

Who knows what Doc would have done today?

As far as lines I just happen to have done a little research on my database. Even with always considering the last pace line. My pace line choice average is 2. 35 or its most often on average I use the second line.

Also I keep track of every winner at Parx for two factors.
First, did the horse have a + paceline in the last race or the last race with a valid excuse,
or secondly did the horse have a + pace line at a comparable distance surface and competition level in the last 3 lines within 90 days.
Both of these factors rate very well. The percentages
change based on age sex distance and race class
but having a + race in the last 3 does better.
So its very important that a winning horse shows some ability
in its last line but I can see why Doc advised to look at the best
of the last 3 at a comparable distance surface and competition level.
Since a race winner more often rates better in this factor.

GS
Bill

[Segwin]

Thanks for the reply Bill. I appreciate it.

On a side I need more coffee before I post. The grammar - woof.

[vderdak]

I've been reading a lot of the follow ups as well from #71 on and what I take away the most from them is if you select comparable pace lines and choose proper contenders you will have the winner in your top 5 tiers most of the time, the area of concentration and focus should primarily be on the wagering side.

First decide if it's a race worth betting or should you pass, then structuring your wagers properly.

It's where I've noticed I'm the weakest at in the past, playing to many low odd horses and so I'm concentrating on the wagering side much more now than the numbers side, also remember the tiers are not rankings, it's their relationship to the horses odds which matter, and lastly, keep records, it's how you find out which tiers are winning with your own personal handicapping.

[The Pook]

Hi Bill

I have seen you talk of + and - minus pace lines here and before. What exactly do you mean by those because I see no such indicator in RDSS. I assume they mean a positive or negative race but perhaps you could explain.

Thanks Pook

[Segwin]

Originally Posted by The Pook

Hi Bill

I have seen you talk of + and - minus pace lines here and before. What exactly do you mean by those because I see no such indicator in RDSS. I assume they mean a positive or negative race but perhaps you could explain.

Thanks Pook

Read all of this thread Pook.

[DontSayDont]

Originally Posted by The Pook

Hi Bill

I have seen you talk of + and - minus pace lines here and before. What exactly do you mean by those because I see no such indicator in RDSS. I assume they mean a positive or negative race but perhaps you could explain.

Thanks Pook

In the thread "Picking Contenders and Pacelines" which should be required reading it is explained fully on page 2. But the entire thread should be viewed. Not sure how to link to it, but you can do a "google site search" on Form Cycle Analyses and find that thread plus much more. Google site search is on the left hand side of the site toolbar.

Ray

[Bill V.]

Hi Pook

Here is a link to a very important thread.

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8784

I suggest you read this thread
very carefully. The topic of rating each pace line is very well explained.

to review

A plus line is a line where the horse finished in the money first second or third
A plus within a zero line is when a horse did not finish in the money, but did
make a positive move in the race or was involved in the pace of race
in at least two calls or beat half the field while running a good speed figure.
a zero line race is a race were the horse did nothing.

Its easy to rank each line It gives you a good picture of each horses form cycle

Here is Huff and Hughes

Its + (+) and 0 races line by line

Line 1 Feb 18 Plus Reason, win
Line 2 Jan 26 Plus witin a zero. Reason fininshed 4th , beat half the field and
gained both position and lenghths against the pace of race all 4 calls
Line 3 Dec 28 Zero Reason, did nothing - The race is not a Plus or a Plus within a
zero so its a zero
Line 4 Nov 25 Plus Reason, In the money finish
Line 5 Nov 3 Plus Reason, In the money finish
Line 6 Oct 15 Zero Reason, did nothing
Line 7 Sept 24 Plus Reason, In the money finish
Line 8 Sept 17 Zero Reason did nothing
Line 9 Sept 1 Zero Reason did nothing
Line 10 Aug. 6 Zero Reason Did nothing

[The Pook]

To all you folks,

You know......this site is awesome. To have you kind people take time out of your day and supply the answers you do or directions to where to find answers is really appreciated.

Thanks to everybody,
Pook

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi Pook

to review

A plus line is a line where the horse finished in the money first second or third
A plus within a zero line is when a horse did not finish in the money, but did
make a positive move in the race or was involved in the pace of race
in at least two calls or beat half the field while running a good speed figure.
a zero line race is a race were the horse did nothing.

Its easy to rank each line It gives you a good picture of each horses form cycle

Here is Huff and Hughes

Its + (+) and 0 races line by line

Line 1 Feb 18 Plus Reason, win
Line 2 Jan 26 Plus witin a zero. Reason fininshed 4th , beat half the field and
gained both position and lenghths against the pace of race all 4 calls
Line 3 Dec 28 Zero Reason, did nothing - The race is not a Plus or a Plus within a
zero so its a zero
Line 4 Nov 25 Plus Reason, In the money finish
Line 5 Nov 3 Plus Reason, In the money finish
Line 6 Oct 15 Zero Reason, did nothing
Line 7 Sept 24 Plus Reason, In the money finish
Line 8 Sept 17 Zero Reason did nothing
Line 9 Sept 1 Zero Reason did nothing
Line 10 Aug. 6 Zero Reason Did nothing

Pook,

There's a reason RDSS does not employ + or 0 or (+) symbols for every past race. Instead, it uses other markups to tell you more information - an extra symbol would be redundant.

+ races where the horse finished in the money (or indeed ran 1st, 2nd 3rd at any call point) are coloured RED, GREEN , YELLOW respectively. If you squint to the point you can't even read the numbers (or like me, simply take off your glasses), you can still tell if any given line is a + line (look for colour).

(+) races where the horse made a move against the pace at some point then faded to 4th or worse - look at the colour of any call point position. If you see some colour in the first 2 calls, the horse was in some kind of position relative to the leader (or was the leader). Look also for the underline markups. BLUE underline shows a gain of 3 or more positions or an extension of the lead against the 2nd place horse. RED underline show a gain of 1 or more lengths on the leader. A THICK RED underline shows a length gain 3+ wide around the turn. So - even if a horse did not finish in the money, it may have performed well during a portion of the race, hence the (+) label - it may have faced too fast a pace and could not sustain its moves against that pace, it may have encountered trouble early or late, it may be returning from a layoff and working into form, it may be in a wrong distance or surface or off track condition but may still be making an effort worth noting. The variety of effort is shown by the various markups above, not simply: (+).

0 races are everything else, i.e. no colour, no moves or no moves which significantly improve position.

So - instead of adding 3 more symbols + 0 (+) instead RDSS goes into more details about the quality of performance in each race. The end result is the same thing (IMO) - you can see movements of a horse through its form cycle, against which 1st and 2nd call pace can it either set the pace or close, and what pace is too fast.

Other markups indicating quality of past performance:

- Early horses who fought for the lead at any call (E or EP types) within 1/2 length have their beaten length symbols underlined and italicized. These are Fighters (we have a Running Style designation F to bring this more to your eye). These horses will usually run as fast as they can to get the lead and often wear themselves out if they can't get the lead, or can't shake the challenger.

- horse was held at odds of 6-1 or better: past performance odds are bold

- distance or surface of past races compared to today: indicated by colourings on those columns (i.e. is a given race with good or partly-good performance similar to today's surface/distance, or forgiveable)

- final time Adjusted Speed Ratings: staggered to show relative speed, and differential from best; coloured to show similarity of surface.

- PoH and PoR Total Energy - compared to how the horse performed in a given race - how fast was the pace of that race? If the pace was too fast (compared to other races where it has fared better) - this tells you more about WHY a horse did not do well in a race. Will today's race be that fast?

Just some tools to help you assess a horses current Condition, aside from the energy measurements from calculating Velocity, energy disbursement and deceleration.

Ted