Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-13-2020, 03:00 PM   #31
kevbrim
AlwNW1X
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 13
So question about 20 race cycles Are these 20 races handicapped or 20 races handicapped and bet? Do you include passed races in the 20 races?
kevbrim is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-13-2020, 04:07 PM   #32
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
I'm not after just winners, I'm after the best horse. If its the best horse it than becomes a key to hit other bets such as EX DD etc. I'm not hiding it, or playing a horse just because it has better odds. I'm after the best horse and it isn't only the favorite, it can be the 2nd.3rd or 4th horse if my analysis places it number 1 for me.


Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2020, 01:14 PM   #33
kevbrim
AlwNW1X
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 13
So I'm continuing reading through the latest follow ups as well as searching up topics here on paceandcap. Maybe I just haven't gotten to the appropriate follow up yet. But, can someone explain Tiers to me in relation to the BL/BL. I understand that it is not meant to be a ranking system, but I'm still confused on how it IS a tier system.

Kevin
kevbrim is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2020, 01:41 PM   #34
mick
Abiding Student
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
Quote:
Originally Posted by kevbrim View Post
So question about 20 race cycles Are these 20 races handicapped or 20 races handicapped and bet? Do you include passed races in the 20 races?
I've done it both ways. Haven't done one in awhile but if I was trying something new, I would do a cycle or two with just "paper" bets. When I was comfortable with what I was doing, I would bet real money. Initially I included passed races but eventually left those out. For me, the actual record keeping was the most beneficial thing. Even with paper bets, it will really build your confidence. I still keep records (boy, do I keep records!) but the format is tailored to the way I play now, which is mostly vertical exotics.
__________________
mick

Illustrated Glossary
mick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2020, 01:45 PM   #35
mick
Abiding Student
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
Quote:
Originally Posted by kevbrim View Post
So I'm continuing reading through the latest follow ups as well as searching up topics here on paceandcap. Maybe I just haven't gotten to the appropriate follow up yet. But, can someone explain Tiers to me in relation to the BL/BL. I understand that it is not meant to be a ranking system, but I'm still confused on how it IS a tier system.

Kevin
For all practical purposes, it's really just a ranking. Frankly, I never understood the distinction either.
__________________
mick

Illustrated Glossary
mick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2020, 03:07 PM   #36
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Re 'tiers', don't worry about the term. If there are tied ranks (e.g. 2 rank #1s, or 2 rank #2s) treat them as equal. If a co-equal ranked BL rating, or VDC rating, or Rx3 any other rating for that matter, offers better odds than the another co-equal ranked rating - accept the gift from the betting public. More so if you can make a case for vulnerability in one of those co-equal ranked factors (per the other thread you resurrected today ).

To be fair to Sartin re the term 'tiers', I think the foregoing comments re co-equal ranks might be a hint to his original thinking, perhaps especially re VDC tied ranks or 'tiers'. In a sporting league or in groups of racetracks, there are groups of teams or tracks which are roughly equal and those others which are clearly unequal, clearly in a 'different league' or cohort or 'tier'. Though the BL/BL screen is sorted by BL rank, there may be multiple VDC rank #1s (by design). If one of those VDC rank #1s has a corresponding BL rank noticeably lower than the same rank #1, then those 2 horses are in the same #1 VDC 'tier' or group despite not being of the same BL/BL rank. For example, VDC co-rank #1 but BL/BL rank 3 or 4.

We have an affectionate name for these 'out-of-order' VDC tied ranks - the so-called 'Binder improver' after our late founder Bill V (aka 'Binder'). Often the co-equal (co-tiered) VDC rank #1 (or could be tied rank #2s) is at better odds thus more interesting to include in a bet, Win or exotic. It earns its higher than BL VDC rank because of the extra 'deceleration' secret-sauce included in V/DC (Velocity relative to Deceleration, tempered by BL).

So - tiers of tied-rank factors wherever found but particularly re BL/BL, VDC, Rx+ screen factors: give them equal consideration (or, conversely, ignore them at a potential loss of betting opportunity).

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™

Last edited by Ted Craven; 07-16-2020 at 03:28 PM.
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-16-2020, 03:26 PM   #37
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Thinking of 'newbie' questions, and the foregoing discussions re Methodology factors and their relative value, and also re ties, and from another discussion I've been having privately over the past several days, here is a link to an excerpt article from a couple of Follow Ups written in the late 1990's by mark Cramer - one of horse racing's 'luminary authors'.

Mark writes about his research using the form of BL/BL (Bottom Line / Betting Line) available in Sartin software at the time and how he fared following 'the rules' given by Sartin. (He profited and donated the winnings to a monastic order!).

BL/BL was later added to a subsequent deceleration formula (=V/DC). Later still (last 5 years with RDSS), VDC (including its BL/BL heritage) gets added into CSR and some external (thus non-correlated to pace) ratings like public Morning Line, BRIS ProfitLine and Prime Power, plus internal an non-pace, non-line-dependant Class Rating (CR+) and a positional Early/Late speed tendency formula (EL+) to become the array of newer Rx factors (Rx1,2,3).

It all began with BL/BL, which in turn came from still earlier Phase III/Modern Pace Handicapping ratings and TPR ratings (Total Pace Ratings). Aka evolution ...

Mark Cramer's BL/BL articles from Follow Ups 69 and 70: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6229

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-24-2020, 09:54 PM   #38
kevbrim
AlwNW1X
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Posts: 13
Ok another question about paceline selection. Lets say you have a 6.5f dirt race. What do you do if a horse (or horses) doesn't have a comparable. For example, all of its' previous dirt races are routes and all of its' previous sprints are on the turf. Is it better to pick a line with common distance but wrong surface or common surface but wrong distance?
kevbrim is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-24-2020, 10:34 PM   #39
Lefty
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 340
Doc said if you take a route line against sprinters to make sure the router has a comparable 6f fraction that make it as fast as the sprinters. Paraphrasing but that's the gist. Personally, I never mix dirt and turf.
Lefty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-25-2020, 10:07 AM   #40
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
kev:


One size here doesn't fit all. In your example 6.5 F race, I would be extremely interested in how it handled the route races on the same surface, if it handles it well it tells me the surface is not a problem. As far as distance it also depends on how it handled those internal fractions of those route races.


I find distance is more important than surface, I may use the 6F turf or the dirt route, that's not a cop out. It really depends on what I'm seeing and without an actual visual I can't answer your question. If you put it up I'll do that . Of course someone else may disagree.


Horses run slower in route races so looking for a competitive internal time of other sprinters in the race is not the answer. An internal time in a route race must be adjusted.

Another question; is the horse even a contender?


Because of how races are written etc., horses don't always fit into a one rule or one guideline fits all. Jimmy "The Hat" Bradshaw said; "You must you what's there."


Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Newbie...Where are Issues 78 thru ???? wwilkens General Discussion 4 06-01-2015 08:45 PM
Newbie needs clarification! cigar General Discussion 5 04-19-2013 04:48 PM
My RDSS Experience! Maxspa RDSS 30 07-14-2009 11:57 PM
3rd Hol 22May09 ..Enlighten a newbie seattlesnake RDSS 9 05-26-2009 05:12 PM
Newbie saying hello pktruckdriver General Discussion 35 05-06-2009 03:47 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:58 AM.