Del Mar Day - Pace and Cap

Bill V. · 07-28-2010, 09:54 AM

Weds 7/28 My Decisions

Race 1. Pass
Race 2. Pass
Race 3. 6 4 3
Race 4. 1 5 3
Race 5. Pass
Race 6. 2 8 4
Race 7. 9 8 6
Race 8.Pass

Good skill
will make win bets on top 2 third pick if one of top two scratches

For The Lead · 07-28-2010, 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Weds 7/28 My Decisions

Race 1. Pass
Race 2. Pass
Race 3. 6 4 3
Race 4. 1 5 3
Race 5. Pass
Race 6. 2 8 4
Race 7. 9 8 6
Race 8.Pass

Good skill
will make win bets on top 2 third pick if one of top two scratches

I think a good thing to do for those who are trying to learn, would be to explain the reason(s) for passing the races you passed.

Bill V. · 07-28-2010, 04:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by For The Lead

I think a good thing to do for those who are trying to learn, would be to explain the reason(s) for passing the races you passed.

Sure FTL sorry I'm late

Races 1 short field of 2yolds and horse 1 only has 1 line and
its too short 4.5 f also the 6 horse only has a 5f line

Race 2 I just never feel confident with maiden turf race decisions

Race 6 more than 1 FTS

Race 8 more than 1 FTS 2Yos

Bill V. · 07-28-2010, 08:37 PM

Not today see you Thursday

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mikesal57 · 07-29-2010, 10:07 AM

OK Bill..lets look at whats left...

you bet 2 horses in each of those races and how many were left 4 or 5

what factor(s) did the winners have ..it cant be that hard to see with small fields..

mike

raceman5 · 07-29-2010, 01:16 PM

Race 2. lets see if we can beat this 4/5 shot with the 3-6

Bob

Bill V. · 07-29-2010, 01:23 PM

Hi Mike
The program uses pace against the dream race
and a EX or SP decision along with 2 adjustment decisions Those are the model or profile factors All winners except race 7 were on my counter energy screen
I'm sure win prices of $2.80 $6.80 and $7.00 all have lots of 1 and 2 ratings
in what ever readout.

Race 7 was a bad miss at $22.00 Going back and changing a few lines gets it to work but again the program is tricky in decision making

GS
Bill

Bill V. · 07-29-2010, 01:37 PM

Race 1 Pass short field 2yos
Race 2 Pass short field 5.0 turf
Race 3 4 3 1 E
Race 4 4 3 5 S
Race 5 Pass More than 1 FTS
Race 6 4 1 8 E
Race 7 4 2 1 S
Race 8 Pass one than 1 FTS

GS

Bill Lyster · 07-29-2010, 03:48 PM

Bill,

I understand your "pass" criteria for maiden races, but my maiden study of 1278 races showed only 168 FTS won those races, or 13%. If you auto pass races where half the field does not have a paceline that eliminated 58 winners and 176 races, so using that criteria FTS win only 10% of the time.

The top three EPR horses (inside the E/L range for each distance) won over 67% of those races (This was only factor considered) and had a positive ROI!

I am not trying to get you to bet more, but there are some nice prices in maiden races that you might be missing. The recent Delmar data base shows that non maiden average odds at Delmar are about 5.5/1 while the average maiden odds are 10.6/1, so you are getting a better return for losing 10% of the races to FTS types.

Bill

Bill Lyster · 07-29-2010, 08:50 PM

Nice home run in the 7th. $252 and change exacta cold!

07-28-2010, 09:54 AM	#1
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Del Mar Day Weds 7/28 My Decisions Race 1. Pass Race 2. Pass Race 3. 6 4 3 Race 4. 1 5 3 Race 5. Pass Race 6. 2 8 4 Race 7. 9 8 6 Race 8.Pass Good skill will make win bets on top 2 third pick if one of top two scratches

07-28-2010, 08:37 PM	#4
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	better days ahead Not today see you Thursday

07-29-2010, 10:07 AM	#5
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	OK Bill..lets look at whats left... you bet 2 horses in each of those races and how many were left 4 or 5 what factor(s) did the winners have ..it cant be that hard to see with small fields.. mike __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

07-29-2010, 01:16 PM	#6
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,295	Saratoga Race 2. lets see if we can beat this 4/5 shot with the 3-6 Bob

07-29-2010, 01:23 PM	#7
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	small Hi Mike The program uses pace against the dream race and a EX or SP decision along with 2 adjustment decisions Those are the model or profile factors All winners except race 7 were on my counter energy screen I'm sure win prices of $2.80 $6.80 and $7.00 all have lots of 1 and 2 ratings in what ever readout. Race 7 was a bad miss at $22.00 Going back and changing a few lines gets it to work but again the program is tricky in decision making GS Bill

07-29-2010, 01:37 PM	#8
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Del Mar Thursday Race 1 Pass short field 2yos Race 2 Pass short field 5.0 turf Race 3 4 3 1 E Race 4 4 3 5 S Race 5 Pass More than 1 FTS Race 6 4 1 8 E Race 7 4 2 1 S Race 8 Pass one than 1 FTS GS

07-29-2010, 03:48 PM	#9
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Bill, I understand your "pass" criteria for maiden races, but my maiden study of 1278 races showed only 168 FTS won those races, or 13%. If you auto pass races where half the field does not have a paceline that eliminated 58 winners and 176 races, so using that criteria FTS win only 10% of the time. The top three EPR horses (inside the E/L range for each distance) won over 67% of those races (This was only factor considered) and had a positive ROI! I am not trying to get you to bet more, but there are some nice prices in maiden races that you might be missing. The recent Delmar data base shows that non maiden average odds at Delmar are about 5.5/1 while the average maiden odds are 10.6/1, so you are getting a better return for losing 10% of the races to FTS types. Bill

07-29-2010, 08:50 PM	#10
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Nice home run in the 7th. $252 and change exacta cold!