Old ideas work

[Hoof 11]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Dick,
I did that and here is the screen shot of what I got. My 8 horse is so far down the list, its hard to see him. When I eliminate the worst of each two horse set so that I have one line for each horse the 8 is still far down the list as can be seen by the second screen shot. any ideas on why we are different?

It might be a difference in “Configuration Settings”.

[Bill Lyster]

Of course you could choose to take all of the remaining five horses from their SA sprint turf lines and pretty much come to the same conclusion, eliminating the 5

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by Hoof 11

It might be a difference in “Configuration Settings”.

Probably not. the last time Dick and I exchanged ideas we had the same settings.

HMMMMM

[rmath]

Bill, When I start to eliminate horses I start with the highest TT rating and eliminate them in that order regardless of which horse or horses involved.

With the settings I use the 8 horses line was #1. not sure why you got different lines for TPP.
I am sorry that I have not been able to post any screen shots at this time, some glitch in my computer.
Rmath
call me on skype and we can share a screen to see what the problem is.

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by barb craven

I am. I didn't set out to use it. I was looking at all readouts to see what would work for elimination at Saratoga when using the 2 highest TPP lines for each horse. Using TPP for the 2 best lines was Ted's idea. After experimenting with different processes for elimination, I found TT was the only consistent one for Saratoga. When I mentioned this to Ted, he found it sufficiently interesting that he suggested (rather forcefully for him) that I post my findings here. It is working at Saratoga. Whether or not it works at other tracks remains to be seen. I would like it to work at Woodbine, but who knows yet.

This just something I'm experimenting with. If you want to try it, be my guest. If not...don't. I notice rmath had a good win with it at GP today.
cheers Barb

So Barb, here is a question about eliminations. The first screen is all horses with their best TPP ratings from turf if they had them. Then I took the top rated TT line for each horse. I left the 2 in because it was top 2 TPP on the BL screen but its TT rank was 12 originally and now is 8th after preliminary eliminations. Note that the 10th best BL horse, the 2 in this case has the 5th best TT rank. If I delete line 2 for the 2 I get 6-5-1-7-3 and miss the winner. Is there another corollary to employ in this case? I do note that the 2's lines rank 4th and 5th RX, which before your discussion began, would have been enough for me to keep him in my final 4.

How would you approach this race in these circumstances?

Thankx

[rmath]

Check out the first and second Turf races tonight at MNR.
Race 1 all 4 final TT horses hit the board.
Race 2 had the 43.60 winner, just missed the exacta by a nose.
rmath

So far every track I have checked the TPP/ TT formula has worked.

[barb craven]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

So Barb, here is a question about eliminations. The first screen is all horses with their best TPP ratings from turf if they had them. Then I took the top rated TT line for each horse. I left the 2 in because it was top 2 TPP on the BL screen but its TT rank was 12 originally and now is 8th after preliminary eliminations. Note that the 10th best BL horse, the 2 in this case has the 5th best TT rank. If I delete line 2 for the 2 I get 6-5-1-7-3 and miss the winner. Is there another corollary to employ in this case? I do note that the 2's lines rank 4th and 5th RX, which before your discussion began, would have been enough for me to keep him in my final 4.

How would you approach this race in these circumstances?

Thankx

Hi Bill
I didn't run DMR on the 20th so I can't speak to this particular race, but after I have the top 2 TPP for each horse, I start eliminating from the bottom up, say starting with the 14 TT, then 13 etc. I don't eliminate the weakest TPP for each horse, what would be the point of putting in the two numbers in the first place.. Of course as you eliminate, the remaining TT numbers frequently change. I keep eliminating highest to lowest until there are 8 to 10 lines left (depending on field size). I then take out the weakest of the two TPP of any horse that still has two lines. Some horses might be eliminated all together at this point. I continue, but now keep the remaining in sight as non-contenders until there are only 4 contenders remaining. If there are ties for 4th I keep them both.
Try this and see if that keeps your 2 up top.
I've been checking the summary screen too because very often you see all the corollories will be red,green or yellow (especially yellow), PF3, Rx and, the Tote. I'm sure as I try tracks other than Saratoga I'll have to look further, but this where I am right now.
Cheers

Barb

[Bill Lyster]

Mrs. C:

Thanks for the clarification. You made a good point about the 2nd best TPP line.

I did go back to the race in question and delete per your instructions. Horse comes tied for 5th (so it really was about the 6th best TT in the group. Now for the good news.

I went back to DMR from the start, did 25 races and the winner was in the top 4, 20 times - 80%. A couple losses were first time foreign starters that had top New Pace ratings of L1 or L2 using the Trackmaster speed ratings (not the Adjusted SR's), so with that one add on feature closer to 90% in this small sample.

[Hoof 11]

Woodbine 2016 Turf Races

May
7/14 = 50%
Sprint – 6/7 = 86%
Route – 1/7 = 14%

June
23/44 = 52%
Sprint – 10/22 = 45%
Route – 13/22 = 59%

July
33/58 = 57%
Sprint – 14/25 = 56%
Route – 19/33 = 58%

Overall
63/116 = 54.3%
Sprint – 30/54 = 56%
Route – 33/62 = 53%


Race/Selections/Winner/Payout/Conditions/Distance

May 18
R3 – 4-11-7 = 7 $17.40 AL/8F

May 20
R5 – 2-4-3 = 8 (FTS) MS/8F
R8 – 7-3-5 = 2 OC/8F

May 21
R5 – 8-4-1A-9 = 11 AL/8F
R7 – 6-7-9-4 = 2 MS/8F

May 22
R5 – 12-9-11-8 = 8 $9.20 AL/7F
R7 – 7-2-5-8 = 1 OC/8F

May 23
R4 – 9-8-3-6-2-1 = 9 $30.90 (EX $139.10) AL/7F
R6 – 5-1A-7 = 1 $4.90 (EX $16.40) (TRI $63.10) CL/6.5F

May 27
R7 – 5-8-3-4-10 = 2 CL/6.5F

May 28
R5 – 3-12-2 = 3 $20.80 (EX $357.20) MS/6F
R7 – 9-1-5 = 9 $10.40 OC/6.5F

May 29
R5 – 1-10-11-7-8 = 7 $38.70 (EX $177.50) (TRI $2595.60) MS/6F
R8 – 10-9-8 = 6 G2/8F

June 1
R1 – 3-8-5 = 4 CL/8.5F
R3 – 7-1-6-8 = 5 AL/6.5F

June 3
R4 – 10-9-6 = 8 MC/6.5F
R6 – 6-3-4 = 6 $4.10 (EX $18.10) CL/8.5F

June 4
R7 – 3-6-5 = 2 AL/6.5F
R9 – 2-6-4-5 = 6 $3.80 AL/8.5F

June 5
R4 – 11-9-5-3-12-6 = 7 MC/6.5F
R6 – 7-3-5 = 1 AL/8.5F
R8 – 4-3-1-2 = 2 $42.70 (EX $133.30) (TRI $331.20) G2/7F

June 8
R2 – 5-2 = 5 $5.10 (EX $13.90) MS/10F

June 10
R1 – 1-6-8-2 = 4 SA/5F
R4 – 1-6-1A-9 = 1 $3.40 CL/8.5F
R6 – 4-3-6-2 = 5 AL/6.5F
R8 – 3-5-1-4 = 1 $5.70 (EX $14.10) (TRI $45.40) OC/8.5F

June 11
R4 – 6-1A-8-9 = 1A $4.00 (EX $12.70) MS/8.5F
R6 – 7-6-3-2 = 5 OC/9F
R8 – 4-5-1-3 = 3 $11.40 ST/6F

June 12
R2 – 5-2-4-3 = 2 $4.70 (EX $11.50) (TRI $17.00) CL/5.5F
R5 – 8-5-4-1-7 = 1 $11.20 (EX $266.20) AL/6.5F
R7 – 2-4-7 = 3 ST/6.5F

June 15
R2 – 8-6-2-7-3 = 2 $15.30 CL/9F
R4 – 5-4-1-11 = 2 CL/6.5F

June 17
R3 – 1-2-4-6 = 5 CL/5.5F
R6 – 3-4-6 = 6 $13.70 (EX $67.20) MS/8.5F
R8 – 1-2-5 = 3 CL/9F
R10 – 7-8-11-3 = 14 MC/8F

June 18
R2 – 8-5 = 3 MC/5F
R4 – 9-2-4 = 2 $7.00 AL/8.5F
R7 – 4-3-7-5 = 6 CL/8.5F
R10 – 12-14-9 = 1 MC/8F

June 19
R4 – 5-1-6 = 9 CL/8.5F
R6 – 4-5-6-2-3 = 4 $10.10 (EX $71.80) (TRI $247.80) CL/6F
R9 – 7-2-5 = 5 $3.80 (EX $16.30) AL/8.5F

June 22
R4 – 9-4-8-6-2 = 2 $104.90 (EX $767.20) (TRI $3292.80)(Sup $7550.20) MC/6F

June 24
R5 – 2-7-4-8 = 4 $5.50 (EX $180.90) (TRI $1737.20) CL/6F
R7 – 1-2-8-6-7 = 2 $4.00 CL/6.5F

June 25
R5 – 5-2-3 = 3 $21.70 MD/7F
R7 – 6-4-3-2 = 6 $9.90 (EX $30.70) (TRI $100.70) OC/7F
R10 – 7-1-10 = 2 AL/8F

June 26
R2 – 4-2-5 = 3 OC/7F
R4 – 6-9-7 = 9 $12.50 AL/8F
R6 – 4-5-6 = 1 MS/7F

June 29
R2 – 9-6-7 = 7 $6.30 (EX $44.00) MS/8.5F
R4 – 2-6-5-8 = 5 $21.90 MS/8.5F

July 1
R4 – 13-8-10-5 = 13 $6.00 (EX $17.10) MC/8F
R7 – 4-6-1-2 = 5 ST/7F
R9 – 1-5-8 = 1 $8.30 MS/8.5F

July 2
R6 – 6-7-4-5 = 5 $16.30 (EX $48.30) ST/7F
R8 – 5-3-6-8 = 8 $37.10 (EX $278.70) G2/8F
R10 – 2-7-5-6 = 7 $17.60 MC/8F

July 3
R1 – 3-1-7 = 3 $5.30 (EX $11.90) MS/5F
R4 – 4-6-2-3 = 3 $15.30 (EX $55.20) (TRI $214.30) G2/6F
R6 – 5-9-12-7-6 = 1 ST/8F
R8 – 4-7-6-5 = 2 G3/12F
R9 – 5-8-1-9 = 3 G2/9F

July 6
R2 – 5-3-2 = 1 CL/6F
R4 – 7-3-6 = 1 CL/8F

July 8
R2 – 1-6-2 = 2 $4.30 SA/7F
R6 – 6-5-1 = 5 $4.80 CL/6F
R8 – 1-8-7-4 = 10 AL/8F

July 9
R6 – 2-3-1 = 6 AL/6F
R8 – 5-6-8-10 = 6 $30.80 (EX $1047.30) OC/8.5F
R10 – 6-10-7-9 = 9 $5.80 AL/8F

July 10
R1 – 5-8-7-2 = 5 $4.80 (EX $24.10) CL/5.5F
R4 – 6-3-8-1 = 2 OC/8.5F
R6 – 4-1-7 = 6 MS/9F
R10 – 12-3-9-4 = 8 AL/6F

July 13
R2 – 4-8-3 = 8 $5.30 (EX $49.00) AL/12F
R4 – 1-7-8-2 = 7 $13.80 (EX $54.60) (TRI $128.70) CL/8F

July 15
R1 – 2-6-4-1 = 1 $36.00 (EX $158.10) MC/5.5F
R4 – 3-1-7-10-2 = 9 CL/9F
R6 – 4-1-10 = 10 $14.00 (EX $100.70) MS/9F
R9 – 8-1-9-6 = 8 $8.30 (EX $23.10) CL/8F

July 16
R4 – 5-3-9-7 = 8 AL/8.5F
R6 – 3-6-2 = 3 $8.50 (EX $62.40) (TRI $512.50) MS/6.5F
R8 – 5-2-7-8 = 1 ST/8F

July 17
R1 – 3-8-6 = 3 $29.60 MC/5.5F
R6 – 10-7-5-6 = 2 MS/6.5F
R9 – 1-6-4-2 = 2 $4.30 AL/8.5F

July 20
R2 – 4-3-1 = 4 $5.20 MC/8.5F
R4 – 2-3-5-7 = 2 $5.80 CL/8.5F

July 22
R1 – 2-6-3 = 3 $23.30 CL/5F
R4 – 3-11-9 = 9 $11.90 (EX $55.20) MC/8.5F
R8 – 2-4-6-3 = 5 AL/11F

July 23
R3 – 4-2-5-3 = 4 $14.10 (EX $48.00) OC/6F
R6 – 5-7-1-4 = 2 CL/8.5F
R10 – 9-6-2-3 = 4 (FTS) MS/6F

July 24
R3 – 6-5-3 = 1 ST/9F
R5 – 7 FTS = 5 (FTS) MS/6F
R8 – 3-1-4 = 3 $5.00 (EX $19.90) (TRI $82.50) G2/9F

July 27
R2 – 9-8-4 = 10 MS/10F
R4 – 10-2-9-8 = 5 AL/6F

July 29
R1 – 5-3-4-6 = 3 $3.50 (EX $24.60) SA/5.5F
R4 – 6-1-5-4 = 1 $5.80 AL/10F
R6 – 1-4-3 = 4 $5.40 (EX $39.10) OC/11F
R8 – 5-6-3-4 = 3 $16.00 AL/6.5F

July 30
R5 – 7-6-10-1 = 2 AL/6F
R8 – 1-7-4-5 = 1 $2.70 (EX $6.40) ST/8.5F

July 31
R2 – 2-8-6-7 = 1 MC/5.5F
R4 – 10-2-5-11-7 = 8 AL/7F
R6 – 1-2-8 = 8 $6.70 MS/8.5F
R8 – 5-9-4-6 = 5 $3.30 G3/6F

[sureshotlink]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Of course you could choose to take all of the remaining five horses from their SA sprint turf lines and pretty much come to the same conclusion, eliminating the 5

Hey Bill.L,

Thanks for laying it all out!

I totally agree with you " Fugetaboutit" F2 in these downhill turf sprints

Best,

Paul link