Old ideas work

[rmath]

Latekick, not sure if the image I sent will open. thelines I ended up with are as follows.
#8 line2
#2 line 4
#4 line 1
#6 line 1
#3 line 1
the # 3 & #4 were tied for 4th on TT so I left them both in.
After I get them down to this point I play the two highest odds regardless of any other ratings.
The 3 horse was not rated very high on any of the ratings but at 40/1 he was a bettable horse.
If you would like to chat sometime I am on skype.
Rmath

[Hoof 11]

Woodbine August 1/16

R1 – 5-4-1
R5 – 2-9-8
R9 – 1-6-7-3

Races 1 and 5 are garbage races, i would take them with a grain of salt, with R1 being a clockwise race which are absolutely pointless seeing that Woodbine can't time these races properly, and R5 is a maiden race with very few lines to work with as well as two crappy FTS. R9 however has an opportunity for value, we shall see.

[Latekick]

Originally Posted by rmath

Latekick, not sure if the image I sent will open. thelines I ended up with are as follows.
#8 line2
#2 line 4
#4 line 1
#6 line 1
#3 line 1
the # 3 & #4 were tied for 4th on TT so I left them both in.
After I get them down to this point I play the two highest odds regardless of any other ratings.
The 3 horse was not rated very high on any of the ratings but at 40/1 he was a bettable horse.
If you would like to chat sometime I am on skype.
Rmath

Hmm i am still getting 5s across the board on the 3 although i see that you say he was tied for 4th on TT.
Maybe i am missing something.
I am very interested in working these turf races this way, however i believe i may be able to find a better way to narrow it down to top 4 using something other than TT. NOTHINg against you or Barb who are doing it this way, it is just in my nature to try to find other efficient ways to do it. Currently with my normal selections i rarley use TT, and have been doing very well. I will begin to test some other ways of narrowing down the field using something other than TT. It obviously works for you, as well as Barb so i do respect it. I just want to see how other ways may work.

[rmath]

Latekick, that is a good idea. What Barb and I are doing is testing the waters to see what we can come up with. If you find a better way please share it with the rest of us.
Good Luck

Rmath

[rmath]

You are right about the 3 horse, His TT was the only way he qualified, but most 40/1 shots do not have good BL or VDC ratings.

[Latekick]

Originally Posted by rmath

Latekick, that is a good idea. What Barb and I are doing is testing the waters to see what we can come up with. If you find a better way please share it with the rest of us.
Good Luck

Rmath

Will do rmath. I am so intrigued by this method because of the fact in tournaments most of the time you dont get to pick what races you play, instead they are chosen for you. I've got a good handle on maidens, and First timers by my own methods after studying for months and finding ways to manipulate RDSS in a way for different races. The only small hole in my game has been turf races. Although i still do well with them and am able to maintain, i feel as though if my turf handicapping can match my dirt handicapping, i can increase my profits even more. This is exciting because i already am doing quite well with my contest play, so if we are able to get a grasp on this, and master it, the profits could become incredible. My hope is that we can work together to bounce ideas off of each other and get this thing figured out and profitable! Appreciate your postings so far and forcing us to take notice of this interesting method.

Also, i received your message and will try to start contacting you when i get some time and have some ideas to bounce around! Thanks!

[Hoof 11]

Originally Posted by Hoof 11

Woodbine August 1/16

R1 – 5-4-1
R5 – 2-9-8
R9 – 1-6-7-3

Results

R1 – 5-4-1 ..... 2-4-6-1

R5 – 2-9-8 ..... 8-9-2-4 (8 = $7.80) (Ex = $41.60) (Tri = $97.10)

R9 – 1-6-7-3 ..... 4-1-5-6

[sureshotlink]

What I find interesting about snow cloud was her 5F turf and poly races oversees and the comment lines each one produce.


(1) lead near finish
(2) kept on strongly
(3) strong run final furlong


Cassidy used route race to put some finish into snow cloud. Third race back
produced top total energy figure in the field.

God I love horseracing!!...

Paul link
Los Angeles,Ca

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by rmath

In response to Barbs request I ran the 9th at GP today.
I entered the two best TPP lines from the energy screen and then eliminated down to 4horses on the BL screen. My final 4 were the 1-2-3 &8.
I boxed all four for a dollar in the exacta, and bet the #3 to win and place at 18/1 and the #8 to win, place and show at 99/1.
It ran 1-8 and the exacta paid 156.30 for a dollar and the #8 paid 54.60 to place and 12.60 to show.
If anyone has this race I suggest you run it like Barb says and see if you get the same horses.
Good luck,
Rmath

Dick,
I did that and here is the screen shot of what I got. My 8 horse is so far down the list, its hard to see him. When I eliminate the worst of each two horse set so that I have one line for each horse the 8 is still far down the list as can be seen by the second screen shot. any ideas on why we are different?

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by sureshotlink

What I find interesting about snow cloud was her 5F turf and poly races oversees and the comment lines each one produce.


(1) lead near finish
(2) kept on strongly
(3) strong run final furlong


Cassidy used route race to put some finish into snow cloud. Third race back
produced top total energy figure in the field.

God I love horseracing!!...

Paul link
Los Angeles,Ca

Paul, don't know if you have the New Pace module or not, but if you do and you use the Trackmaster option for speed ratings, Snow Cloud is the second best Late horse, L2 in New Pace parlance based on its foreign races speed rating.

Also note that Snow Cloud's 6.5 turf race was from SA. I usually add 8 points to the adjusted speed rating to see how it relates to the rest of the field, in this case pretty good. I just started looking at this next adjustment, but because of the low adjusted Speed Rating you can probably add about 4-5 points of total energy to see how the horse might rank. You can see that its best TE of the horses than ran down the hill at SA. But perhaps better than that, look at the first and third fractions and the deceleration. Forget the 2nd fraction from these down the hill races, its altered by the slope and the program for some reason really undervalues it.

In this race there were four horses who raced down the hill in the lines that I chose. compare the horses from the down hill turf course to themselves and look for weaker horses to eliminate. See note on #7 below. The 3 has the best F1 of these 4, out runs the 7, can't be caught by the 5 and can only be over taken by the 12

Then I looked at the top two horses (also the favorites in the ML), for me the 8 and 4 and see that their E/L numbers are very high, +21 and +16 respectively (these numbers do not win turf sprints..) eliminate them and the picture becomes clearer. On the velocity screen their F3 values are right at 30.0 and lower. See also that the 7 who can't make the lead has an F3 of 29.8 after not being competitive at the second call. With these 3 eliminated the final field might look something like this: