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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

 
 
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Old 09-15-2013, 09:01 AM   #11
DontSayDont
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 106
From FTL's original post: "3 - eliminate any horse that does not have a "+" or "(+)" line at a similar distance and surface in the last 90 days."

What is a similar distance? Within 1 furlong, 1/2 furlong or more? With 4 distances covering a mile to 1 1/16th would you use any one of the distances as being similar. If the last line was 8.5 and a -0- type race but todays race is 8.2 and the 2nd line back was a 8.2f race with a (+) both at the same class, would you pass the horse because of the -0- race or go back to a race at the exact distance and a (+) race?

When I last played Finger Lakes they only had 1 mile, 1.70 and 1 1/16 races. Few of them were 1 1/16th. Now they have added 1.40 and from all races run this year, every distance is slightly different in "my" profiles.

Mile races are seldom run (only 8 races before yesterday) and show 1Call and FX to have the highest win %. 1.40 races, Turn Time and EP. At 1.70 there are 4 categories tied for top honors, final time, average pace, sustained pace and FX slightly higher. Finally 1 1/16 is still not raced often and all but 2 categories are tied for top honors. What is a bit surprising is at all these distances, last fraction is not among the best categories.

This comes from using the winning horse and his ranking in the various categories. I have his winning %'s for ranking #1, #2 and #3 separately and then 1 + 2 and 1+2+3. I try to rank 5 horses per race and any horse not ranked would still be entered as a 6 in each category so every race run gets recorded.
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