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Classic Sartin Programs - Support, Discussion Phase III/MPH, Synergism, Energy, Kgen, Entropy, Thoromation, Quad-Rater, PaceLauncher, Synthesis, Validator, Val4, Speculator, etc ...

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Old 05-15-2009, 07:26 PM   #11
Bill Lyster
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Today's 13th at Pimlico is a good example. the race that made the winner a contender had low TE and an E/L of -28. All his other races had E/L's much closer to 0
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Old 08-18-2016, 06:49 PM   #12
papajohn3times
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help again?

Hello again Tim I never realized how to use the e/l graph! Could you eleaberate some more for me as I find this a "new" area for me to pursue! Also I understand how looking at declining total energy or as you said a increase or what is a decline in early energy as a way too see if horses are going off form?
Also just a note I played Saratoga and tried Thistle Downs I did very well at Saratoga yesterday Wednesday but Thistle in my opinion is a joke! # times I bet about 3 minutes to post on horses that were shown at 4-1 in one race 11-1 on another race and 9-2 on a 3rd,all exceptable odds considering each one was high on RDSS(of course this was before I found this totally informative thread on the e/l difference graph!) Anyway I was at Hazel Park and betting on my account on BetAnerica(too many idiots standing and wasting time at the machines and the tellers,I never will use as they could care less what tracks or numbers they punch in!) So the 3 races go off and I have the winner in all 3 betting 2 horses as prescribed Well 4-1 goes of at 3-2 the 11-1 goes off at 7-5 and the 9-2 goes off at 4-5! These were all at least 9 horse fields so I assume that Thistle doesn't update it's post time odds til the horses are in the gate! This is a track I will NEVER play again!
Thanks again for all your generous help Tim!
John
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Old 08-18-2016, 08:22 PM   #13
Tim Y
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First and foremost, REMEMBER this is a game of GAMBLING, not handicapping.

Establish a protocol for evaluating the final contenders in terms of their CLOSING ODDS (that represents the public's evaluation of the probability of winning) versus YOUR evaluation.

If your data shows that a contender should be around 5/2 ( a probability of 28.6%) and the odds board has it a 7/5 (41.6% probability), you are chasing a negative return. IF, on the other hand your data suggest that a 2/1 horse (33% probability) is now going off at 4/1 (20% probability), there will be more money in the pool to return to your wager.

Once contenders are selected, LET THE PROBABILITIES YOU HAVE BE COMPARED TO WHAT THE CROWD HAS before deciding on any wager. Recall if you are a two horse bettor, it will take an enormous hit rate to overcome short odds.

NOW onto the early/late numbers
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Old 08-18-2016, 08:33 PM   #14
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The early late balance is the weighted difference between the 2nd call and final fraction. IT is distance, and track specific and REQUIRES your keeping good records to see how it is running day to day as biases can sneak in (particularly in the cold wet weather-becomes much more positive).

Unlike what most think, it is NOT a number gleaned from result charts as it is a PREDICTIVE number based upon the lines used in evaluation the relative merits of horses coming INTO a contest. To establish standards, GO BACK to completed races, find the e/l number from the line selected for the winner and record it. Update daily so as to get at least 30 or 40 entries and that is the beginning. WARNING: With the upside down nature of grass racing, the huge negative numbers of turf racing, and the variability of the early paces of race on that surface, turf racing e/l's have not been that predictive. Deceleration numbers are more accurate. DECELERATION: the ratio of 3rd fraction velocity/2nd call velocity......usually OVER 100%

Once you have standards for distances at each venue you follow, you can then use that as another elimination methods late in the choice of you contenders in eliminating those that are far too early (upwards of +25) or too late (-25). As a whole relatively more POSITIVE numbers are better as they tell of horses that are involved in paces earlier in a contest.

Inner Aqueduct Fort Erie and Parx had some of the most positive numbers I ever collected with sprints here going in around +12-up. Contrast to the Fair Grounds where sprinters often did not get above +7. Oaklawn was a early/pressers paradise with averages at sprints were in the range +4 to +10

So start collecting. One caveat, accept a higher number IF that horse will be alone on the lead (no others close to it in the positive side).
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Old 08-18-2016, 08:41 PM   #15
Tim Y
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Horses going off form show a similar pattern. OVER their last three (not 2 but 3) they are meeting close to the same pace of race, but their %median (another measure of early/late) is climbing. Many of these horses may have won their last races too and many are wire types. So pattern of three increaing % median and total energy going down.

At the same time, their total energy is declining over the last three races too. When together it should send up warning bells. This pattern was found on the great Curlin (subtle but extant) coming up to his last Breeder's Cup race and re flags went up. Both median UP total energy down

Another way that the %median talks to us is in the Triple Crown charge. Colts that have INCREASING % medians (usually above 68%) as their distances increase (8 to 8,5 to 9.0) are STOPPING or at least slowing down EARLIER into each contest. This eliminates animals that cannot get the 10 furlong trip and it has been a very reliable way to eliminate contenders.

I agree Thistledown is a joke but EACH week you should try a new venue to see how the method does there. GP PARX and Woodbine are great spots to play and the method works at those venues well.
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