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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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11-06-2012, 10:00 PM | #21 |
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Finally! The results!
To those who took the time to look at these races, I hope you were able to learn something from them.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
11-06-2012, 11:29 PM | #22 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
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My look
Thank you FTL
( I sent FTL these readouts last night) The race was a real challenge but I felt I had it about 51% I had some doubt that one of the routers internal fractions would be the killer Anyway here is what I sent FTL Race 2 7 furlongs open 20000 claimer or nw2l ? + (+) and 0's Bold 0 (+) (+) 0 Quick + (+) + 0 + Flame + (+) (+) (+) + 0 0 0 0 Heza (+) 0 0 Doc + + + + + 0 Agitate (+) (+) + (+) O O O Murphy (+) + 0 (+) + (+) + 0 Dirty + 0 0 0 0 + (+) (+) Big Bad + 0 0 ++0 0 0 0 Running style Bold - Press Quick - Sus Flame - SP/NF Heza - NF Doc - EP Agitate - No sprint form Murphy - SUS Dirty - was a EP now is SUS Big Bad- SUS APV Class Bold 171.5 165 Quick 125.3 196 Flame 24.7 058 Heza 22.4 0.54 Doc 51.2 163 Agitate 149.4 147 Murphy 34.8 0.58 Dirty 69.9 0.74 Big Bad 196 203 Contenders Bold Line 3 Press Quick line 1 Sus Doc Murry line 1 EP Dirty Line 1 Sus Bold wins |
11-07-2012, 05:34 PM | #23 |
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Location: England
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Interesting Horse Summaries
I have to admit to not thinking about class or APV when looking at a race, but this was clearly not the case when this race was first worked through & then used in the Follow Up.
APV is even colour coded in RDSS so perhaps I ought to pay more attention. Was this one of those races to sort the men from the boys??? Bill, May I ask, your use of the 0, + & (+), do you use it to ensure you are using an appropriate line only or also as a tool for the form cycle analysis? I know The Doc has made reference to doing form cycle analysis when there is a discernible pattern, but in many cases it appears to my admittedly untrained eye that no pattern does exist. Is this an area you've been able to explore? I keep having a quote Jim made at the Las Vegas seminar '91 running round & round my head. Paraphrasing now, but "......if you put the right horses into the programs they will sing & dance for you". Essentially, if I can get to the point where in most cases I can confidently eliminate the non-contenders, especially the shorter price ones that are easier to get sucked into entering, then V/dc & the Incremental Match Up graph can take care of the rest (with appropriate line selections of course). Perhaps a Teaching thread on the elimination of non-contenders might be appropriate? It would be interesting to perhaps gather the various strategies that people deploy in this area. Thanks FTL & Bill! |
11-07-2012, 06:34 PM | #24 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
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Quote:
Dave Rdss makes doing the + 0 and (+) notations so easy The lines are color coded so you don't even have to mark them but i still do . Here is a Early horse I can see how it runs all its plus lines and I can see why it runs 0 races I mark both the lines and the Early Late numbers I note what running stle and the fractions and distance and surface it runs its Plus races at When I see a horse with very little color I know its up against it in todays race I am sure you will be seeing more on the topic of non contenders that should not be entered in the program GS Bill |
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11-08-2012, 03:13 AM | #25 | |
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Quote:
Hope all this helps.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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11-09-2012, 04:38 PM | #26 |
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Big Thank You Bill & FTL
Terrific posts & thanks for your time both.
I don't want to slip into the "do me something" trap now & so I'm going to explore the issues raised and then come back with my thoughts/findings. There has been a lot of views of this thread so presumably a few others are seeking guidance in this area too. It would be nice I think if a few fed back later how they have found things. I certainly will. |
11-09-2012, 07:18 PM | #27 |
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Again, from the follow ups.
This is good advice from the 'Doc".
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
11-10-2012, 03:42 AM | #28 |
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No choice
Sometimes you just don't have a choice.
I mean, you follow the guidelines on line selection and you run into a horse like the one below. What are you suppose to do? Well, given the dilemma this horse confronts you with, just take the last line. You'll see what I mean. Those who did were rewarded with a $35.00 winner! Of the 10 races in the past performances, this horse encountered "trouble" in 9 of them. Since the last line is a good race, a + race, USE IT!
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
11-11-2012, 01:23 AM | #29 |
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From the HORSE'S MOUTH!
I thought it would be of interest to read how "Doc" went about looking at horses on the basis of being contenders, or not, and how he selected lines. He offered this example. Take note that the first thing "Doc" did was READ THE CONDITIONS"!
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
11-11-2012, 01:34 AM | #30 |
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And here are the horses
Read "Doc's" comments on each horse carefully.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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