Fastest Pace Last Race

[MikeB]

Originally Posted by Mark

I tend to shy away from top quality races as the horses are too consistent and basically the pace scenario or obvious pure athletic talent determines the outcome. I almost never play a race with less than 8 betting interests as well. I like all surfaces but am less confident when the track gets sealed prior to or during rain storms. Alas, I love older cheap claimers at cheap tracks or Non-winners of 2 or 3 lifetime at same.

This brings up a question, especially for Richie, about the examples and practice races in the original Matchup Forum. It seems that most of the races Ritchie and the Hat worked were not at the "big" tracks (NYRA, So. Cal., etc.) but more what I would call blue collar tracks.

Was that because of Jim's bias or taste, or the Matchup was more suited for that kind of racing, or just coincidence?

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by MikeB

This brings up a question, especially for Richie, about the examples and practice races in the original Matchup Forum. It seems that most of the races Ritchie and the Hat worked were not at the "big" tracks (NYRA, So. Cal., etc.) but more what I would call blue collar tracks.

Was that because of Jim's bias or taste, or the Matchup was more suited for that kind of racing, or just coincidence?

Hi Mike,
You know that's a great question. Jim very rarely (even though he did play them) worked races with me from the major tracks, usually exactly as you point out from the "B" tracks such as Op, Lad, Fg, Mth, Prx, Wdb, Tdn, Kee, Tp, Cd etc. He really didn't bet at night as that was "Family Time " but I added tracks like Evd, Ct, Mnr, Pen, Ded etc.

Richie

[Mark]

Richie, your clarification of the requirements for an OTE runner's paceline projecting is really helpful. It was a contradiction to me that you would use a line where the horse didn't have the lead, but we used that pace to assess the other runners. I kind of thought that the rationale was that this is the early pace this horse can win against so to beat him a competitor would have to be able to run successfully against it. Yet at the same time, the was no guarantee that someone would run that fast early to carve out those fractions. I'd get my head handed to me at times in Turf races when the only E goes out in 25-50 and you have horses that have competed favorably against 24 -48. Midpack or closer horses that gain position and beaten lengths 1c -2c can use their superior final fraction if they have one to advantage as they can get on level terms entering the stretch. You just have to make sure that Early runner doesn't have a big final fraction off that slow early pace. I can see that now.
I believe there are a number of tips and clues just like this that make a huge difference not only to me but to others. The is so much information in the Hat Check blog and a lot of it was presented as Jim taught it to you. It has taken me literally years to piece alot of this together. The beauty of this exchange is as soon as i see it, it answers my question and guides my actions.
Can't wait to work a race or two!!
Thank you

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by delayjf

I have been reviewing the match up posts and find the concept interesting, especially regarding Bradshaw's FPLR. I have looked high and low, but I'm not sure I understand exactly how to apply the FPLR concept.

- Are you looking for any horse who ran in the FPLR, regardless of their performance in that race (i.e. 20 lengths off the pace or getting beat by 20 lengths at the finish)

OR

- Are you applying a performance criteria to the FPLR concept whereby the horse must have either pressed or challenged the early pace even if they did not finish well, or perhaps the horse in question finished competitively (is competitively defined?) in the race in order to be considered as a FPLR horse.

Thanks in advance.

Hi Jeff
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=4761&page=3

Check post 25 in the above thread. This was made only months after Jim passed. His teachings were very clear in my mind
Richie

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Mark

In my experience, too many folks pulling at the steering wheel tends to produce bad results. So if agreeable with you, please pick day, time and races and establish the ground rules. I believe that a great many Matchers and others will put it on their calendar.

Hi Mark,
OK I'll put up a race Thursday that will run Saturday. Full pp's
, tandems, etc and there WILL be a projected pace from on the lead runner from the last line.

Please feel free to post a race of your choice (I can post pp's etc for that race no problem).

Everyone is welcome to chime in with analysis, feedback, etc but please for this thread an acknowledgement and analysis of FPLR regarding contender selection in both my race and Mark's race is a MUST. After all that is what started this thread right?

FWIW there are many ways to come to a final wagering decision and Jim approved of all of the following:
1) pick THE horse
2) Pick 2 horses to win
3) pick the value bet among your final contenders
4) Separate contenders into "Early" and "OTE (other than early) and pick the "'BEST" in each category for a 2 horse win bet
5) Separate contenders into "Early" and "OTE and pick the best "VALUE bet in each category for a 2 horse win bet.

Richie

[delayjf]

I usually opt for the value bet. Depending on the odds I tend to weight my bets to the long odds horse, playing the short odds horse to break even or produce a slight profit.

[Mark]

Rich,
I sent you a Private message concerning my race tomorrow.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by Mark

Rich,
I sent you a Private message concerning my race tomorrow.

Hi Mark!
OMG I literally just came through the door, checked your PM and see the races you listed (I will call you when things get a bit less hectic PROMISE!) Hey I see you have tomorrow night's 5th from EVD listed so I will post up the pp's tomorrow morning, hope that is cool! Looks like it goes off around 8:30 PM here in the East so that is a good thing. There is a solid FPLR runner to shape the race around.

PP's will be up first thing in the AM and EVERYONE feel free to post up their feedback, workups, screenshots etc etc it is ALL good man! Please make a conscious effort to identify the FPLR runner and contenders.

Richie