Tote X-Ray Results

[SilentRun]

Thanks Bill for providing those screens you had a busy day.

There were 12 races for today (10/24) and 1 race from 10/23.

SUMMARY

From the 4 best Tote x-ray horses.......

1.There were 10 winners out of 13 races 10/13 = 77%.
Five of the winners were double digit mutuals.

2. There were 6 exactas as part of the 10 winners.
The $2 exacta prices ranged from $17 to $138

3. For the 3 races that ran out, i.e. the winner was not one of the
4 best x-ray horses, the winners of all these 3 races were the 5th
best x-ray horse and they all paid nice prices.

Keep in mind.....

This is a small sample, say you toss a coin 14 times you may get 11 heads.
This does not mean that heads will come out 79% of the time. Everyone
knows that the probability of getting a head is 50%. You can expect
the same here. As the number of samples taken increases a more
accurate win probability wlll surface. In statistics this is called the
"Law of Large Numbers". This is how the system works.

I also noticed that going from 1 MTP to 0 MTP a horse from
the top 4 x-ray horses can roll out and be replaced by a new horse.
I saw this in one of the sample race from MNR and the horse won
and paid 15.00.
Maybe inside late money is responsible ??? In any case I can see
how sensitive this is from 1 MTP to Post Time.

In addition the contenders were based on the best 4 x-ray horses.
This has nothing to do with handicapping.
Some of these winners may be out of the top 5 RDSS contenders.
IMO the best way to do this is to first handicap the race and get
your 4 or 5 best contenders and then compare your contenders
to the 4 or maybe 5 top xray horses.
The horses that match at acceptable odds are most likely the best bets.
But only by compiling stats based on YOUR method of picking
contenders will show this.

I will continue x-ray horse data collection and report stats after
100 races.

Ernie

[seattlesnake]

on the 24th....Rank5 1MTP......8 out of 11 races... was in the show money....for the wannabe bridge jumpers...

good work Ernie...I might have to open a new fortfolio...unfotunately i cant hook up at the supertote... wonder if Ted can do supertote with TVG?


Jess

[SilentRun]

[QUOTE=seattlesnake;on the 24th....Rank5 1MTP......8 out of 11 races... was in the show money....
for the wannabe bridge jumpers...

Jess[/QUOTE]

Thanks for that..I rarely consider show wagers. I now see that I should
consider the top 5 tote x-ray horses. In addition 3 of the big winners from
the 24th were from the 5th x-ray horse.

Ernie