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05-28-2009, 09:39 AM | #1 |
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THUS AP 5/28 Race 6
Hi....match-up
#9....2nd race on poly improved speed held well vs 45.3 half 2 sharp works since last 20% win jock up Not much speed in this race...can sit 2nd or 3rd or even fire to lead 2 tandem horses, that be him, afraid of the 5 p.s- dont even say it!!! #10 mike
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05-28-2009, 11:23 AM | #2 |
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Thanks
for the pp's of the race Mike. Think i will take a .50 super box of the 2-3-5-7-10. My knocks on the 5 are that this is for NW2L and he has had 11 starts. In these races i tend to lean towards lightly raced horses and the 5 has never put back to back good races together.
Bob |
05-28-2009, 11:26 AM | #3 |
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good...anytime we have an excuse not to bet a fav ...I'll bite
dont like my 9
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05-28-2009, 11:30 AM | #4 |
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AP Race 10
prime spots for these..
2 horses that might be coming into form # 6...power move 2 back...speed in last #10..winning pattern from his PP in past...layoff,,sprint to route bot horses won here at AP...and rest of bunch has problems at AP gl mike
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05-28-2009, 01:58 PM | #5 |
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I agree that speed is pretty weak here. If 11 sets the pace off its last, the EPR = 90, LPR = 78.5. Looking at the 9 in its early runs anywhere near 90 shows that the high seventies are about as good as it can do. 9 was 3rd tandem horse, so I tossed as well.
this race looks to set up for pressers IMHO and recall Richie's post about off pace horses here at Arlington which helps this analysis. I was tempted to consider the 8 -La Mandy of its second line, but this horse is very strange looking. Again look at the E/L readout. No matter what the early pace this horse can't exceed the mid 81's except for one slop race. So max speed for this one is 81.5, the horse normally runs 2-5 lengths off the lead and there are better closers in the field. The 5 and 7 out of the tandem and the 6 - Niki's. The 8 furlong first after layoff has a total energy the same as sprints from lines 3 and 7 and = to the TE of the 5 and 7. The mile E/L pretty much matches the best sprint. Might not win but should contend pretty well. The tandem might repeat but historically the five has run closer to the lead than it did in the tandem while the seven appears to have a better late kick. I can't separate these three, so I'm boxing 5-6-7 |
05-28-2009, 02:11 PM | #6 |
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AP 10
Agree on the 6. Reverting to best running style could reverse the tandem, but give the 2 and 11 out of the tandem some chance here as well. the 11 should get first run of these three and pace is almost nil; 6 is next closest as long as it doesn't go early like last time. I like 6 and 11 over the 2 here |
05-28-2009, 02:16 PM | #7 |
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AP 9 6 furlongs:
I couldn't find any horses to pressure the 2nd line back from the 6 [m/l 8/1] on the lead: 22.0-45.1-57.8-111.4, but the 3 and 4 can close to about the projected final time, but each closes from stretch times slower than 57.8, with both looking to be on the order of 5 lengths back at that point. |
05-29-2009, 03:17 AM | #8 | |
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Quote:
6th race...the 9 didnt even fire 10th race...my 14-1 #10 got beat by a 25-1 horse
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05-29-2009, 01:49 PM | #9 |
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yeah well....
I can't even follow my own admonitions. Haven't been too many wire jobs at Arlington and I used a maiden winner's line without giving the favorite (off its maiden line big pressing win! Sheesh.)
As far as the last, the winner was third in the tandem. I didn't watch the odds after betting early - ouch here too! Hopefully, I'll be smarter today and tomorrow. |
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