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Old 02-09-2018, 10:27 PM   #31
Bill V.
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claimed

Hi

I was unable to be home in time. I feel bad cause Jeebs posted the race in
plenty of time .

I worked the race this afternoon. I had a issue with the 5 as being a negative dropper
I see FTL noted it was a waiver claimer, The only horse eligible to run in and not have to be claimed was the #10
It fit because it had not run in longer than allowed in the waiver claimer
rules.

The 5 was offered for the claiming price
I was suspicious of the drop of nearly 1/2 the claining price

When I worked the race I would have bet the 3 and 6

Bless
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Old 02-09-2018, 10:35 PM   #32
Mitch44
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I used line 4 for the # 5 horse and it was on my radar however like Bill the drop concerned me so I placed him 3rd in my order. I also downgraded the 10 as stepping up in class and that one of the droppers had to be sound but which one.I did have a 5-3 Ex but the 3 stopped about 20 yards from the finish giving it to the 10 for place.


My analysis said the race had to many contenders and questions on droppers etc. therefore it wasn't a good betting race. I also thought there were some good paying Ex's, worth the risk verses the win bet. I'm very satisfied with my evaluation and Ex bets before post time to take advantage of some overlays based on my analysis /money management.
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Old 02-09-2018, 10:36 PM   #33
Jeebs
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Good analysis, Bill. I agree that the #5 dropping did smell a little funny. However, those connections (Caldwell/Villafranco) play the claiming game quite aggressively in that region, so you had to take that somewhat into account. Even though #5 appeared disadvantaged by the paper matchup, the connections, BL tier and tote odds made it an easy saver under #6 whom I had bet aggressively, albeit probably too much so! 🤑 In the end, #5 made the save (as an OTE). No complaints.
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Old 02-09-2018, 10:47 PM   #34
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Great job Tim (Jeebs) no one can argue or dispute success. Nice call.
Mitch44

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Old 02-09-2018, 11:02 PM   #35
Mitch44
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This horse switched trainers from its last race back to a trainer who previously trained it. It went from a 11% trainer to a 23% trainer from its last race, This horse was going to improve from that move. The question becomes when and at what class level ? one reason I had it 3rd in my order. This is a favorite move of both Lt1 and I that we consider and jump off the page at us in our analysis. The trainer had four stats all well over 20% & Jeebs was correct about the connections.
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Old 02-09-2018, 11:08 PM   #36
Jeebs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post
It is my opinion that these types of lines should never be used. They represent nothing. NOT early, NOT presser, Not sustained. They were just “in the race”.
You are entitled to your opinion and while I suspect that the following response will do nothing to change that opinion, I'll still go ahead with it anyway.

When Doc shifted his tack from velocity to the esoteric "chaos math" based algorithms (V/DC, Entropy, etc) that transformed the Methodology in the mid/late 90s, he moved away from the visual ESP that guys like Hat, Brohamer, et al had popularized in the years prior. While a line like the two lines you highlighted in your rather candid and spirited postmortem may appear to represent nothing from a visual standpoint, it may very well represent something when the chaos math and Median Energy run styles are applied. The end result is the ability to detect hidden form through numbers and graphs, which could be difficult to see or envision looking at a race from a more traditional, visually conservative lens.

Last edited by Jeebs; 02-09-2018 at 11:19 PM.
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Old 02-10-2018, 08:09 AM   #37
Mitch44
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Bill V. Yes the winner was claimed and connections and the inside game always have a advantage over us. I tried observations at the track but could never obtain an edge with it.
A trainer who looks at thousands of horses and whose livelihood depends on their skill of the game ,particularly claiming have an edge on us. Ditto for maidens. Good looking out Bill and on their claim.
Everything points to a very sound horse as I always contend hindsight is always 100% and decisions have to be made before the bell. Had I had that conclusion it would have been in my top two in lieu of 3rd choice. Didn't have time to look at a DD but would have been alive for it you I was suspect of the suspicious drop which becomes an unknown factor.
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Old 02-10-2018, 08:22 AM   #38
Mitch44
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Jeebs: Post #36 was an excellent post. I might add his later recommended procedures for picking pace lines was and is superior to his original journey into that area. This was also confirmed by an independent & outside analysis from a firm in Las Vegas. Results of that analysis is well published in the Follow Ups.
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Old 02-10-2018, 09:44 AM   #39
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I like to once again congratulate Jeebs on getting the winner. Also in my opinion he did not make a mistake in considering the 6 as a contender. Using the best of the last 3 at a comparable dist, surface ,and class I went with line 3 which was a win at 6.5f @7500 clm.on dirt. The line has the best adj sr and perceptor of the last 3 lines. As a side note, based on contender selection process of 2 teaching members, I would have qualified the horse off its last line. I know this line doesn't meet the the original pace line method favored by FTL but I would like to point the following At the 1993 Vegas seminar Bruce Jorgeson pointed out that he kept as a contender any horse that beat half the field in its last. The horse finished 4th in a 9 horse field at a higher level in that race. Additionally it was only 2 lengths behind at the stretch call which qualified it as up close as per Tom Brohamer advise for picking contenders. So in my opinion one could stick the horse with that line if the 60 day l/o concerned them. Again, keep in mind, as FTL and Ted have pointed out, this is only the initial process and in no way means the horse would be a play.
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Old 02-10-2018, 11:54 AM   #40
partsnut
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Jeebs,


Nice post. You got the job done with your 2 horse picks.
The name of the game is "profit".
Congratulations.
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