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01-16-2018, 11:42 AM | #1 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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Oaklawn Park profile
After four days of racing at Oaklawn Park, I've noticed something unusual - early speed is fading down the stretch. There have been a total of 36 races, 20 sprints and 16 routes, with only 5 gate-to-wire winners and just 7 winners that were on the lead at the second call. Visually, the rail seems to be dead and I've watched as frontrunners, often unpressured, fade in the last sixteenth.
Last year I did rather well playing Es and EPs. This year, early in the meet, I've been watching more than playing, making only modest "entertainment" bets, and have cashed one ticket. The track seems to be much more tiring. Perhaps that will change as the meet progresses but for now, my bets will only be on paper. |
01-16-2018, 12:22 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
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Hi Mick,So far I've played 1 5,5f,8 6f races,5 8f races,and 5 8,5f races. I have noticed that based on my capping vdc and turn time are the predominate factors so far and my top 3 ep and lp ranked horses have fared equally well. Jimmy always said this is one tough track with horses coming from all parts of the country and tracks rated at varying tier levels. Makes capping a lot of fun with big rewards if you are right.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
01-16-2018, 12:54 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Sounds like HE should be a killer especially if in the top TPR or Tot Energy.
Good skill, Mitchman |
01-16-2018, 04:18 PM | #4 |
Abiding Student
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
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No surprise that you gentlemen are all over it. This is from my modest little spreadsheet for the Top 4:
VDC - 77% TT - 73% HID - 73% Also, TS+F3 (Supplementary Factor) - 73% (The header is mislabeled on the spreadsheet as TP+F3.) Given the above percentages, this one is no surprise. It's True Speed or Adjusted Speed Rating plus extra weight for the third fraction. (Page 29 of the Glossary.) Profit Line and Prime Power are both 73%, too. I added a column for Prime Power and am tracking it independently. |
01-16-2018, 08:51 PM | #5 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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My Oaklawn Model
Hi All
Here is my OP model Not too many races. I only save races I actually work so I only have 10 routes and 7 sprints Profile Sprints Med % High 71.7 Low 67.6 AVE 69.25 ESP E-4 P-2 SP-2 S-1 RS E6 E5 P5 P2 S5 S2 S1 So far some good rankings for sprints are SC POR 71% VDC 57% TE POR 57% F2 POR 57% TS POR 57% TT 57% FW 57 % E/EP 57% CBL F1 57% Running Positions Call 1 57% Call 2 57% Stretch 71% Final 71% ML odds 57% Profile for routes Med % High 68.1 Low 66.7 Ave. 67.6 ESP E-0 P-0 SP-4 S-5 L-1 RS E7(4) E6 P5 P5 P2 P1 S2 Top Percentages Routes CSR 80% Profit Line 90% CR+ 90% RX1 80% RX2 80% RX3 80% ML odds 90% APV 70% BLBL 80% VDC 80% Prim 80% Supp 90% POH TE 80% POH F2 80% POH SC 80% POH F3 80% POR F2 80% EPR 70% LPR 80% TPR 80% TT 80% HID 80% FW 80% FX 90% Percept 80% L/EP 80% CBL FIN 80% TP+TS 80% Fractals Frac E 90 % Frac L 90% Frac N 80% Running Pos. Stretch 80% Fin 90% Here is my Sprint and Route models file Oaklawn.xls Blessings Bill |
01-18-2018, 05:42 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 377
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oaklawn park
oaklawn has always been a sustained pace track favoring outside closers despite the short stretch for the most part. you may find a few races where ep horses win but the closers will always prevail. this applies only to fast tracks period,not wf ,gd, my, or sly.
my rule of thumb is this: look at some previous full chart race results , see where the winner was at the 1st call, not the 2nd call, then go back to your pacelines and look for a similar or comparable running line from whence the winner came and use that line in your program and then see where your winners are coming from. don't go into a race where you already predetermined where your winner is coming from. i cut my teeth with sartin 30 years ago using Synergism II. that's how i learned to pick pacelines and that's why i know oaklawn is a sustained pace track. track has not changed in 30 years.later,omar. |
01-19-2018, 09:25 AM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 644
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That looks like a powerful model for routes.
Thanks both of you for sharing. |
01-21-2018, 12:47 PM | #8 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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updates
After many dark days due to a winter storm
OP was back on Saturday Here is a update RDSS model Track is still running towards the late side Routes Sprints I'm having trouble uploading the spreadsheet I will asap Bless Bill |
01-26-2018, 09:43 PM | #9 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Updated E/L data
I have enough races so I can start to make a non maiden E/L Sprint and Route
Profile for OP Jan 12-Jan26 Sprints Routes |
01-27-2018, 03:20 AM | #10 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Updated Model
Here is my 2018 Oaklawn Park Model
Jan 12-Jan. 26 Sprints and Routes are on separate tabs updated OP Sprints_non maiden.xls Bless Bill |
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