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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ... |
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01-16-2018, 05:32 PM | #11 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
Are you suggesting that regardless of how the trainer feels about the horse's condition, the stewards forced the trainer to scratch because the trainer was racing the horse back in 4 days?
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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01-16-2018, 05:50 PM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Jeebs:
Great workup and expert analysis on this race, it'll pay off in future endeavors. Mitch44 |
01-16-2018, 07:16 PM | #13 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Quote:
I'll post PPs when I get a chance. That or ask someone else to post them. |
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01-16-2018, 07:55 PM | #14 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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I got it
Hi Jeebs
i will post the PP's for the race Bill |
01-16-2018, 09:02 PM | #15 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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PP's
Race 2 Parx 1/16/18
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01-16-2018, 09:04 PM | #16 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Horses
5 6 7
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01-16-2018, 09:05 PM | #17 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
That's very interesting. I've seen many horses run back in 3, 4 or 5 days and never heard or seen a stewards scratch because the horse was running back in that short of time for the reason that it "wasn't in the best interest of the horse/public". In fact, a quick check of my database shows that in two randomly selected and consecutive years there were roughly 40,000 horses that ran back in less than 5 days. That seems to imply that horses running back in that short period of time is fairly common. I can also report that from those 40,000 horses, roughly 3,400 of them won. Having never heard or seen that before, I hope you'll excuse my skepticism. In the event you come across a horse being scratched by the stewards for the reason you mentioned, please let us know. I, for one, would have particular interest. It's never too late to learn.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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01-16-2018, 09:05 PM | #18 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Horses
8 9 10
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01-16-2018, 10:52 PM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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First things first. I WOULD NOT have had the winner of this race as it was OFF 190 days.
Next, thanks Bill for posting the PP’s. Ok, on to each horse. #1 – SCR #2 – NO LINE. I’m not going back to line 3 off of the horses performance in lines 1 and 2. #3 – L2, I can’t use line 1 as it was a route race. #4 – NO LINE. I can’t use line one as it was a route and a poor performance. All the other lines are more than 90 days old. #5 – L1, I’m not concerned with the -56 track variant. My adjustments would handle that. And I’m certainly not going back to line 5 or 6 even though they are less than 90 days old. #6 – NO LINE, ML is 20/1. #7 – L1, #8 – NO LINE, ML is 20/1 #9 – NO LINE, last 8 races, regardless of class level, are just bad #10 – NO LINE, OFF 190 days So let me start with the ML favorite, #10. Being OFF 190 days I would immediately throw the horse out. Just about one year ago, someone claimed this horse for $40,000 which was a drop in class after having run in allowance races with various conditions. The new owner immediately runs the horse back twice in allowance races before finally deciding to drop the horse down to 12,500 (where it ran 2nd) and then dropping it again the next time out to 7,500 where it won. If you following racing at all, it should be clear this is a horse with problems and turned out to be a horrible claim for $40,000. Fortunately, the owner finally lost the horse through the claim box when it won for $7,500 last time out. What happened next confirms what you should have been thinking about the horse a couple of races ago. The horse has problems. The new owner paid $7,500 for an ailing horse. They had no choice but to take the horse out of training and address whatever the issues were with the horse. That took 190 days. Today, the horse is a crap shoot. If it loses, you can understand why. If it wins, again, you can understand why. Not the kind of horse I want to back. So I have lines for just three horses, #3, #5 and #7. #5 has a lifetime record of 3 for 27. #7 has a lifetime record of 3 for 27. Neither of these horses instill confidence in me, which leaves just the #3 that ran 2nd by a neck at 8.70/1 and is one of two “early” horses in the race….by my standards. I’m with you, Jeebs, in your decision to pass the race. Good job.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
01-17-2018, 05:02 AM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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AS I said earlier I actually tried to bet this race but saw it too late and was shut out. I would have posted my bets and didn't have time to comment. My two horses were the 4 & 10 and I liked the 4 best. What I liked about the 4 was that every time it ran in a sprint it ran a big race. It obviously is a better sprinter than a router. Look at its POH Tot Energy. Why they keep entering it in routes is a mystery.
Additionally if you exam the # 10 Tot Enery POH you get a different picture of this horse than the man made class designations. It would serve ( I believe) handicappers well to get away from these man made class designations as their fraught with many unknowns. Particularity with restricted races and where there is big casino purses. Sartin used Tot Energy, also there are better things such as CR or CR+. My two horse bet would have compensated if the 10 didn't run well. I also thought the 10 would be on the lead so was surprised how he won. Either way its just another race and all this is only important if one has to play the race such as a contest etc. But based on everything and the odds for me it was a bet. Actually was surprised it went off at 7-2 and not the favorite. Mitch 44 Last edited by Mitch44; 01-17-2018 at 05:07 AM. |
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