|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
02-08-2018, 12:34 PM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
|
Postmortem
Both the FTL (Original) guidelines and a BLT/C approach made the winner a contender. It was a matter of how one applied the respective guidelines to their process. The question, as some have raised is whether or not the race was a prime betting opportunity. As Mitch and others have alluded to, there were some questions in the race that couldn't be answered until after the race was run and official. With several horses selected as "true" contenders, it clouds the race somewhat.
#5 got the lead but had to run faster to hold it, which forced it to expend more energy. #6 was able to get on top of its fractions and was fortunate enough to hold sway, as #8 and #2 were looming. While I felt that 5-1 was fair for the winner (I did not bet, I posted for demonstrative purposes), others may have felt otherwise. Would I have put a large wager on the horse? No. Too many other question marks laying in the weeds. I agree with Ted: the contender process is simply a starting point. You have to use other tools to rationalize and finalize your decisions. Just because a horse is a "contender" does not mean that today's match-up will do it justice. Your true contenders are your match-up and once you paint the picture of said match-up, then its a question of whether or not there is value enough to make wagers, either for entertainment or serious profit. |
02-08-2018, 01:52 PM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
|
I looked at the race and did not bet, but thought the lone E had a pretty good shot at winning with the 1 as best closer.
However, when you look at these contenders positionally, the winner was next in line to inherit the lead, which goes back to what The Hat asked us to do. The two S horses the 1 and 8 usually ran 7th-8th for the 1 and 4th and usually farther back for the 8 and the winner was often in the top 3 at the first two calls. |
02-08-2018, 10:27 PM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Thornhill ON
Posts: 437
|
Sorry what are the Conditions
Im Fishing for answers
__________________
May all wagers be Winners... |
02-08-2018, 10:30 PM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Thornhill ON
Posts: 437
|
Sorry Im Late
Just read the conditions and Not Im not Interested
__________________
May all wagers be Winners... |
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
20 Race Cycles - For Beginners and Old Alike | Because I Can Jim | Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) | 1 | 04-13-2017 03:56 PM |
Just follow the guidelines | For The Lead | Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) | 138 | 08-19-2014 10:28 PM |
Penn Race 6 12/11 | Bill V. | Selections | 2 | 12-13-2013 11:47 PM |
Using RDSS with a sample race in my learning (Apr 13, 2013 - OP Race 2) | NeedForSpeed | RDSS | 5 | 06-13-2013 02:28 PM |
MatchUP intuition is "Primary", MatchUP mathematics is "Corollary"/Secondary | VoodooFan | Matchup Discussion | 41 | 02-27-2011 03:05 PM |