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Old 02-07-2018, 01:13 AM   #1
Jeebs
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The Daily Track Variant

Looking at recent races from PRX and MVR, I am observing kooky Trackmaster Daily Track Variants ranging from the mid-high -30s to the -70s... guessing that this is because of frozen winter surfaces. This becomes problematic when rating races because the adjusted lines - regardless of whether a range of DTV or percentage of DTV is selected - are simply unrealistic. Whether you're in the BLT/C or original guidelines camp, it makes selecting the proper line for your process a headache in many races. Even if a horse legitimately ran a great race or a bad one, using what is a clearly aberrant paceline - or even selecting an alternative line in its place - can be costly.

That being said, would RDSS better serve the player by giving its user other adjustment options outside of the Trackmaster numbers? In the Brohamer/Massa version of Modern Pace Handicapping, adjustments were done either automatically (using the Bris or Beyer number) or manually (using user defined FPS variants in +/- 0.5 point increments). While most don't have the time or energy to create their own figures/variants, perhaps an alternative automatic adjustment method would be beneficial. I'm not sure if the DRF style SR and TV are part of the Trackmaster file structure, but if it is, would this old school method - instead of the Trackmaster/Equibase DTV - possibly do a better job of "tightening up" extremely fast or slow races so that these races are not so "off the charts" and making average lines seem superhuman (or should I say, "superequine")?
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Old 02-07-2018, 06:34 AM   #2
Mitch44
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This occurs more at MVR during winter than at Parx, probably a result of a frozen track. These lines should be avoided at all costs. Back in the early 90's we avoided variants over 28 & under - 6 which is about 5.5 lengths from the norm or average of 17. After that they become very unreliable.

The solution is to avoid them unless all have those type lines which does happen at MVR in the winter or change your settings in RDSS as you can control what you'll accept such as 50% of . . .
Hope this helps.
Mitch44
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Old 02-07-2018, 09:42 AM   #3
Jeebs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
This occurs more at MVR during winter than at Parx, probably a result of a frozen track. These lines should be avoided at all costs. Back in the early 90's we avoided variants over 28 & under - 6 which is about 5.5 lengths from the norm or average of 17. After that they become very unreliable.

The solution is to avoid them unless all have those type lines which does happen at MVR in the winter or change your settings in RDSS as you can control what you'll accept such as 50% of . . .
Hope this helps.
Mitch44
I’m thinking that at present, simply avoiding those venues is the best solution. Too many situations where the track may or may not have improved or worsened a horse’s form. Then you have to play the guessing game as to whether or not the horse will run back or simply improve/regress out of the blue. The warmer climate tracks seem to run with more consistency so the lack of aberrancy makes it easier to find the right line.

RDSS is good at what it does, but nothing is ever 100% perfect.
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Old 02-07-2018, 10:43 AM   #4
Lt1
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MVR is really tough to play with all those crazy variants but I usually don't have much of a problem at Parx. If I do play MVR I bypass those lines with the wild variants the same goes for Parx. I did play MVR yesterday and despite having to do some creative line selecting still had the winner in the top 3 tiers 5 of 8 races. Of the other 3 winners 1 was 5th tiered the other 2 nowhere. The winners in the top 3 paid $8,$3.80,$8.40,$5. The 4th tiered paid $12.80. the 5th tiered pd $25.60 and the 2 not tiered pd $17 & $76. Any way if you do play MVR just be prepared to be creative in paeline selections.
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Old 02-07-2018, 10:49 AM   #5
Mitch44
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MVR does have some good prices. There's noting I hate worse than to spend time capping and have the track cancel due to the weather. For this reason I tend to play Tam,GP & OP this time of the year and avoid that situation. They also have good size fields, some good racing and some good prices. Love those rolling DD and hit the last 4 at Tam a couple weeks back and the last 4 at GP two Sat. ago. In fact BLBL & V/DC had four # 1 win out of 7 playable races(GP) which keyed some decent DD and ex.


In fact I understanding its snowing at MVR now.


With so many tracks why take the worse of it.?
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