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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 08-21-2017, 11:28 PM   #1
Jeebs
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Problem race - SAR 3rd - 8/21/17

Before work today, I decided to take a look at the early part of the Spa card. The first two were maidens so I naturally gravitated to the 3rd. Here are the conditions:

Code:
         SAR0821 3 6.5 D CL 3+F $28,000 CP=$14,000 2:06PM

               FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD
               AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE
               RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older,
               124 lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races In
               2017 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race In 2017
               Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $14,000.

Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Double Wagers
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Old 08-21-2017, 11:31 PM   #2
Jeebs
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PPs

Attached are the Brisnet PPs for the race...

Race3.pdf
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Old 08-22-2017, 12:07 AM   #3
Jeebs
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Pre-Analysis

#1 - No Line. Is 20-1 on the ML, but ran a + race in for $25k last out. Drops down to $14k. Big knock is 2/54 lifetime record. Absolutely not a "win" type. Can't use.
#2 - Line 3. Absolutely was flat last out in its initial run over the track. 3rd ranked Prime Power rating suggests to dive a little deeper for a line. Line 2 is a muddy track. Line 3 at today's distance shows a small middle move before tiring out. 3YO $25k to this 3up n3L $14k is a drop in price but likely a rise in company facing older.
#3 - No Line. No usable surface/distance line in the past 90 days makes this a tricky read. Visually got annihilated in its last 3 races. Its last truly "usable" is Line 4 from last September at Belmont, but that was going a 1-turn mile. 4th ranked Prime Power, so if I wanted to reach, I could, especially since this big dive is a move that Linda excels in. Either the horse wins for fun (and potentially gets claimed), or has gone sour. I am not a fan of the pattern and I just cannot bring myself to extract the Line 4 route line.
#4 - Last Line. Contested a fast pace over this surface last out. It is a + line. Top Prime Power rating.
#5 - No Line. 8th on Prime Power, and basically sucked up a show spot last out. Line 2 in the goo was just as bad, if not worse. Line 3 brings you back to July of last year at Belmont. The poor Prime Power is enough to turn me off in digging for a usable line. Out it goes.
#6 - No Line. No form. Horse has gone south since Sciacca claimed off of Rudy (the Line 3 1-turn mile win). Now being offered below purchase price. Fire sale.
#7 - Line 3. 2nd best Prime Power in the field. Both Lines 1 and 3 rank strong. Has been ultra-competitive in the Midwest and now drops in for the tag after finishing close in n1x allowance company. Drop makes sense here.
#8 - Line 1. I wish that the connections were confident enough in this one to raise the bar off the last line win. Nonetheless, this is my line.

Here are the lines:

Code:
             SAR0821 3 6.5 D CL 3+F $28,000 CP=$14,000 2:06PM
                                 PACELINE DATA
 # PN NAME LdNT 1STC  2NDC  FINC   BL1   BL2   BLS   BLF  SR     TRKDISTS

 1  2 SUMME3    22.6  46.9 119.0  2.10  1.60  2.50  6.80  65     BEL 6.5D
 2  4 MADAM1    22.7  46.1 117.3  0.50  1.00  3.00  8.30  72     SAR 6.0D
 3  7 CHARI3    22.3  46.4 117.0  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  82     PRM 5.5D
 4  8 CAUSE1    23.3  47.3 118.5  1.00  0.15  0.00  0.00  74     BEL 6.0D
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Old 08-22-2017, 12:13 AM   #4
Jeebs
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Energy Readout

#7 and #4 have a big edge in TE and Early Energy Potential over the rest of these.

Code:
             SAR0821 3 6.5 D CL 3+F $28,000 CP=$14,000 2:06PM

                            ENERGY GENERATOR (VAL4)

┌─┬───────────┬───┬────────┬──────┬──────┬─────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬───┬───┐
│#│PNcNAME LdT│ SR│ Total R│  HE R│  Fx R│ %Med│E/EP R│L/EP R│ TPP R│BAL│ESP│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┼──────┼──────┼─────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼───┼───┤
│1│ 2 SUMME3  │ 65│163.03-4│71.5-4│54.3-4│ 69.0│91.8-4│85.1-3│89.3-4│  7│E/P│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┼──────┼──────┼─────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼───┼───┤
│2│ 4 MADAM1  │ 72│166.10-2│74.5-3│54.9-2│ 68.9│93.5-2│84.8-4│90.1-2│  6│E/P│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┼──────┼──────┼─────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼───┼───┤
│3│ 7 CHARI3  │ 82│167.89-1│78.1-1│56.6-1│ 67.9│94.0-1│85.7-2│90.8-1│  3│S/P│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┼──────┼──────┼─────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼───┼───┤
│4│ 8 CAUSE1  │ 74│164.53-3│77.4-2│54.7-3│ 67.8│92.1-3│86.1-1│90.0-3│  4│S/P│
└─┴───────────┴───┴────────┴──────┴──────┴─────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴───┴───┘
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Old 08-22-2017, 12:17 AM   #5
Jeebs
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BL/BL and V/DC

#7 and #4 look like the solid Top 2 wagering tiers. #8 could have potential under. However, as mentioned above, the "Wild Card" could be the #3 who we did not select a line for.

Code:
             SAR0821 3 6.5 D CL 3+F $28,000 CP=$14,000 2:06PM

                      BOTTOM LINE -- BETTING LINE (VAL4)

HIDE#  PNcNAME LdT  SR  BAL    LS TIE ODDS   TRKDISTS  M/L DAYS AGE

    3   7 CHARI3    82    3  23.8     EVEN   PRM 5.5D  5/2   32   5

    2   4 MADAM1    72    6  22.5     EVEN   SAR 6.0D  7/2   24   5

    4   8 CAUSE1    74    4  21.0      8-5   BEL 6.0D 12/1   38   4

    1   2 SUMME3    65    7  15.0      7-2   BEL 6.5D  6/1   29   3







                     SYNTHESIS POWER RANKINGS AND FRACTALS
                  ┌──┬─┬─┬────┬────┐┌─────┐          │    PRIM     │  SUPP   │
                  │ B│L│T│PRIM│SUPP││FRACT│          │E│L│C│T│H│F│F│S│F│E│T│T│
┌─┬───────────┬───┤ A│S│O├──┬─┼──┬─┤├─┬─┬─┤┌───┬────┐│P│P│P│T│E│W│X│P│X│N│S│P│
│#│PNcNAME LdT│ SR│ L│P│T│LS│R│LS│R││E│L│N││ESP│SCBL││R│R│R│ │ │ │ │N│ │T│ │P│
├─┼───────────┼───┼──┼─┼─┼──┼─┼──┼─┤├─┼─┼─┤├───┼────┤├─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┼─┤
│1│ 2 SUMME3  │ 65│ 7│3│4│27│4│20│4││4│4│4││E/P│ 3.7││3│4│4│4│4│4│4│4│4│4│4│4│
│2│ 4 MADAM1  │ 72│ 6│4│2│15│2│11│2││2│2│3││E/P│    ││1│3│3│1│3│2│2│2│2│3│2│2│
│3│ 7 CHARI3  │ 82│ 3│1│1│10│1│ 5│1││1│1│1││S/P│ 0.8││2│1│1│3│1│1│1│1│1│1│1│1│
│4│ 8 CAUSE1  │ 74│ 4│2│3│18│3│14│3││3│3│2││S/P│ 5.3││4│2│2│2│2│3│3│3│3│2│3│3│
└─┴───────────┴───┴──┴─┴─┴──┴─┴──┴─┘└─└─┴─┘└───┴────┘└─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┴─┘

             SAR0821 3 6.5 D CL 3+F $28,000 CP=$14,000 2:06PM

                         THE  V A L I D A T O R (VAL4)

┌─┬───────────┬───┬───┬────────┐  ┌───┬───┬───┬───┬──┬──┬──┐  ┌──────┐  ┌────┐
│#│PN NAME LdT│SPR│BAL│   TOT-R│  │EPR│LPR│CPR│ TT│FW│HE│FX│  │V/DC-T│  │SUPP│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│1│ 2 SUMME3  │ 65│  7│163.03-4│  │  3│  4│  4│  4│ 4│ 4│ 4│  │     4│  │   4│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│2│ 4 MADAM1  │ 72│  6│166.10-2│  │  1│  3│  3│  1│ 2│ 3│ 2│  │     2│  │   2│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│3│ 7 CHARI3  │ 82│  3│167.89-1│  │  2│  1│  1│  3│ 1│ 1│ 1│  │     1│  │   1│
├─┼───────────┼───┼───┼────────┤  ├───┼───┼───┼───┼──┼──┼──┤  ├──────┤  ├────┤
│4│ 8 CAUSE1  │ 74│  4│164.53-3│  │  4│  2│  2│  2│ 3│ 2│ 3│  │     2│  │   3│
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Old 08-22-2017, 12:31 AM   #6
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Result

As you might have guessed by the title of this thread, the outcome was likely not going to be a winning one:

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The "problem" (for me at least) was my inability (or unwillingness if you will) to rate the #3 off a good extracted route line (Line 4), despite the fact that the horse was taking an extremely sharp drop and had a strong enough Prime Power rating. I wouldn't label the trainer move as a negative, as the horse clearly was in need of relief. However, given the circumstances with the other lines and the gaps in between races, I didn't trust going that far back. Sometimes, trainer moves - especially those coming from a power barn like that of Linda Rice - will supersede pace analysis. The way I play, I need a line to rate. I'm at the mercy of my methods. It happens.

Now, looking from another angle, had I'd selected Line 4 for the #3, my BL/BL top 3 tiers would have been 7-3-4, AKA the ML favorites. In retrospect, this race was probably a pass as there was nothing unique beyond the obvious. The result of the race proves this point. As a credit towards the competitive nature of this race (and the nature of the betting public at Saratoga), the winner paid 5/2, while the other finishers were 2-1 and 3-1 respectively.

Last edited by Jeebs; 08-22-2017 at 12:35 AM.
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Old 08-22-2017, 08:52 AM   #7
Ted Craven
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I was sitting in the stands with Mick, watching the eclipse and the races.

I modified the auto pacelines on #3 to not select a troubled trip line or a clearly bad performance, going to the good 4th line instead.

Still, I Win bet #4 and #7 while they were both around 3-1 and Exacta'd 4-7-2 / 4-7-2-3. I guess I felt the #3 still needed a bit more racing to do its best after the vacation, despite the new lower competition levels. I was wrong . But the eclipse was cool

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Old 08-22-2017, 11:42 AM   #8
Bill Lyster
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A way to look at it

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I did not look at this race until your post, but:

Excluding the last race and looking at lines 2-4 and 10 when this horse has some form, he runs in the mid 80s EPR. Had some early speed in the turf race in that it ran much closer to the lead, but even this effort was better than previous turf races, position wise.

In the bottom screen I only changed the line selection (from the auto select) on the 3 to include its ONE TURN 8 furlong race. In my handicapping I do not adjust the internal fractions from one turn miles. Look at the advantage the 3 has on every 6 furlong time in the rest of the field (low 111s vs almost everyone laying off a 112 or slower. Also, only the 4 wants to be close to the lead, but in much slower time.

The Hat said to look at all the lines, from the bottom up, then come to a decision. This is just reinforcement of that principle.

One other point. This is a NW3L race so in many cases you can go back to when the horse won its NW2L race (if you can find it - probably not in the 2/54 horse) This horse deserved the class drop.
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Old 08-22-2017, 03:01 PM   #9
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I would have used L4 and extracted. The internal line of L4 is faster than the 7f line.
Quote from "The Hat; you have to use what you have." Myself I pay no attention to the class of the line or how many days ago it was. Others do and and all I can say is it works for me.
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Old 08-31-2017, 09:39 PM   #10
papajohn3times
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I guess I did something right as #3 was my 2nd bet, It was in my top 3 tier horses. I only bet 8.00 on it but did show a small profit on the race. Just got lucky I guess
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