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Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice |
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07-23-2016, 03:40 PM | #21 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 154
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Quote:
Was that because of Jim's bias or taste, or the Matchup was more suited for that kind of racing, or just coincidence? |
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07-23-2016, 10:34 PM | #22 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Quote:
Hi Mike, You know that's a great question. Jim very rarely (even though he did play them) worked races with me from the major tracks, usually exactly as you point out from the "B" tracks such as Op, Lad, Fg, Mth, Prx, Wdb, Tdn, Kee, Tp, Cd etc. He really didn't bet at night as that was "Family Time " but I added tracks like Evd, Ct, Mnr, Pen, Ded etc. Richie
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
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07-25-2016, 02:13 PM | #23 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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Important information
Richie, your clarification of the requirements for an OTE runner's paceline projecting is really helpful. It was a contradiction to me that you would use a line where the horse didn't have the lead, but we used that pace to assess the other runners. I kind of thought that the rationale was that this is the early pace this horse can win against so to beat him a competitor would have to be able to run successfully against it. Yet at the same time, the was no guarantee that someone would run that fast early to carve out those fractions. I'd get my head handed to me at times in Turf races when the only E goes out in 25-50 and you have horses that have competed favorably against 24 -48. Midpack or closer horses that gain position and beaten lengths 1c -2c can use their superior final fraction if they have one to advantage as they can get on level terms entering the stretch. You just have to make sure that Early runner doesn't have a big final fraction off that slow early pace. I can see that now.
I believe there are a number of tips and clues just like this that make a huge difference not only to me but to others. The is so much information in the Hat Check blog and a lot of it was presented as Jim taught it to you. It has taken me literally years to piece alot of this together. The beauty of this exchange is as soon as i see it, it answers my question and guides my actions. Can't wait to work a race or two!! Thank you |
07-25-2016, 08:44 PM | #24 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Quote:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=4761&page=3 Check post 25 in the above thread. This was made only months after Jim passed. His teachings were very clear in my mind Richie
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07-26-2016, 08:53 PM | #25 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Quote:
OK I'll put up a race Thursday that will run Saturday. Full pp's , tandems, etc and there WILL be a projected pace from on the lead runner from the last line. Please feel free to post a race of your choice (I can post pp's etc for that race no problem). Everyone is welcome to chime in with analysis, feedback, etc but please for this thread an acknowledgement and analysis of FPLR regarding contender selection in both my race and Mark's race is a MUST. After all that is what started this thread right? FWIW there are many ways to come to a final wagering decision and Jim approved of all of the following: 1) pick THE horse 2) Pick 2 horses to win 3) pick the value bet among your final contenders 4) Separate contenders into "Early" and "OTE (other than early) and pick the "'BEST" in each category for a 2 horse win bet 5) Separate contenders into "Early" and "OTE and pick the best "VALUE bet in each category for a 2 horse win bet. Richie
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07-27-2016, 11:30 AM | #26 |
Grade 3
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 74
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I usually opt for the value bet. Depending on the odds I tend to weight my bets to the long odds horse, playing the short odds horse to break even or produce a slight profit.
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07-29-2016, 11:13 AM | #27 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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Rich,
I sent you a Private message concerning my race tomorrow. |
07-29-2016, 07:30 PM | #28 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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EVD 5th Saturday night
Hi Mark!
OMG I literally just came through the door, checked your PM and see the races you listed (I will call you when things get a bit less hectic PROMISE!) Hey I see you have tomorrow night's 5th from EVD listed so I will post up the pp's tomorrow morning, hope that is cool! Looks like it goes off around 8:30 PM here in the East so that is a good thing. There is a solid FPLR runner to shape the race around. PP's will be up first thing in the AM and EVERYONE feel free to post up their feedback, workups, screenshots etc etc it is ALL good man! Please make a conscious effort to identify the FPLR runner and contenders. Richie
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"Grampy I'm talking to you!" |
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