Rdss2 & NewPace

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by rmath

Bjennet, You are right about New Pace not giving a ranking order and that the majority of the winners are already ranked on VDC.
The way I use them is as a corrollary to separate ties on vdc, I have found that if the 3rd & or 4th VDC horses are not also New Pace contenders they rarely Win.
They do place or show, but I am only interested in getting the winner in my top 2 or 3 horses. My goal is to get 80 to 90 % in these 2 or 3 final contenders.
At the present time I am looking at another ranking method ( another Monty) to see if I can narrow my final 3 to 5 horses to 3 or less without eliminating more than 5% of my main contenders. So far things are looking very promising.
While this adds a little extra work it appears to be helping. I am using a ranking system, like Dave Schwartz talked about in one of his seminars that is based on an unrelated set of factors.
When I have worked it on at least 500 + races I will post the results here.
So far I only have about 100 races recorded, but as Doc always said if you can get one more winner in each 20 race cycle then it is worth doing.
Hope this helps in how I am using NP to separate the VDC contenders.
rmath

Hi Rich,

Got to admit this made me scratch my head somewhat. I can understand the idea of substituting (which is the same thing as the testing you describe) an NP horse for #3 V/DC - but how much of a gain is there in doing this, when the hit rate of the #3 V/DC is .17 (according to your 500-race sample) and the average hit rate of an NP horse is .18? I think your sense that you're getting a better hit rate this way may be the result of looking at a too-small sample size. In theory #4 seems like a better candidate for this kind of substitution. However another problem that I think might arise when you try this is that you'll find that V/DC #1 & #2, are, in effect, taking some of the win probability from the substituted NP horses, since they are taking a larger overall share of the win probability than the NP contenders with whom the substituted NP horse is usually grouped. I know this sounds kind of long-winded and confusing, but it's just a way to say that correct rank-ordering is really important, and its lack in NP greatly detracts from its value, at least in this context.

BTW, to be clear, I'm not trying to persuade you to change any of your procedures - everybody's got to do his thing - but more for the general group, something to think about re NP.

Continued good luck in the contest. Hope you hang on to the lead and take it all.

Cheers,

B Jennet