Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > General Discussion
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

General Discussion General Horse Racing Discussion

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-17-2019, 05:31 PM   #11
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 9,817
True

That may be but the more legs in the picks the better chance we can outsmart the crowd in one of the legs
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-26-2019, 08:07 PM   #12
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 9,817
Hate to say i told you so

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Or perhaps bet some of the surrounding races and use Maxi as a single
A little red boarding Omar, but you can't beat the high weights consistently in handicaps.

Maxi was a good single, With a nice spread in race 7 the 11 pays a decent DD

Name:  spread.JPG
Views: 55
Size:  14.8 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-26-2019, 08:22 PM   #13
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 2,056
Why is everyone so surprised that the hi weights win a majority of these races. They are supposed to because they are the ones that have accomplished the most on the track of the horses in the field. This was of the 1st things I learn when I was being taught to handicap way back in 1980 at Aqu. Hcp races were common place back then and the hi weight angle wasn't a military secret.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-26-2019, 08:56 PM   #14
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 9,817
Waste

Hi Tim

That certainly is a good way to look at FTL,s guideline of focusing on the 3 top weights in handicap races, However on the other side of the coin
, I lived trough about 20 of my 22 year Sartin learning journey wasting money betting against the 3 heavyweights, or worse "hiding" them because as we now know the probability of them winning is too high.

Most if not all F T L guidelines are really just good solid handicapping lessons , They are here at pace and cap to jettison those with less than great handicapping ability to
winning more consistently or betting and passing races more consistently.
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-26-2019, 09:44 PM   #15
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 2,056
Very true Bill. Just because they are the high weight doesn't mean they can't get beat. They could be running at the wrong dist or surface or maybe going off form etc. But like Tom Brohamer like to point out this is a pct game and one should ask them self which side of the pcts do you want to be on.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-27-2019, 09:43 AM   #16
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 1,637
I always say that money management is the most ignored element to success in this game. Max Sec is a champion of his time and will only get better.


Your bet Bill was an excellent one and a bet I make frequently in that when a horse figures and the public bets it down I than look to a DD, P3 or Ex. for profit. One must always ask the question, how can I make money out of this race?


I'm still traveling and didn't play this as my time is tied up but that was a very nice DD , congrats Bill for a very smart bet.


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 10-27-2019 at 09:47 AM.
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Saratoga Meet Thread 2019 CheckMark Selections 222 09-02-2019 07:11 PM
Maximum Security to run at Monmouth Sunday Bill V. Races of Interest 7 06-16-2019 06:26 PM
How do yo feel about the Derby DQ Bill V. General Discussion 11 05-12-2019 02:43 PM
Security Error Loading Old Programs oswaldrha Classic Sartin Programs - your host: Bill Varone 5 05-14-2018 08:24 PM
'Heartbleed' Security Bug - TrackMaster NOT affected Ted Craven General Discussion 0 04-11-2014 11:30 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:21 AM.