Newbie ?s

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Kisha

Software question - On some cards, the Win and ITM columns are automatically checked. If nothing is checked, does that mean the assembly process did not find a contender or ITM horse?

Kisha

Kisha, normally, the software will select some line, according to the Strategy you have selected in the Paceline Selections Tab, except for First Time Starters and Foreign horses. When it does, the checks in the Entries screen Win and ITM columns simply refer to the Groups the horse was placed in - either automatically initially (only placed in ITM or Secondary Group if more than 270 days off) or later Grouped by you. If you yourself designated a horse as Non-Contender, no check will show in either column. Otherwise - there is some kind of anomaly: the software should initially select a line for every horse if it can.

You can move horses between Contender Groups on the Analysis Panel by left- or right-clicking the checkbox at the left edge.

Please let me know of a race/s where the software initially fails to check ANY lines.

Ted

[Kisha]

I read the first few issues of Follow Up and learned a little more about Energy. I am just now starting to play 100 races. Can those races be a combination of more than 1 track? I'm not trying to play more than 2 in a day. rmath, I was trying to determine what factors to use to pick contenders. Today, I looked at APV, ML, Total Energy, Speed and RC. What is equivalent to Prime Power in rdss?

If selecting a contender based on speed, is it suggested to use the SR on the Analysis/Original screen or the SR from the PoH or PoR screens. Or is the CSR the speed you mentioned the best Speed to use?

On another note, why would the sort of SR show the 6 horse at 74 above the 1 horse at 76?

Kisha

Originally Posted by rmath

For the past year I have been only looking at the races involved in the P-6 at GP, GPW and a few other tracks.
I was curious to see if the 4 Factors ( VDC, CSR, PL and Prime Power )could be applied to these types of races, with all the different types of races with any success.
What I found was surprising, considering the number of Turf races and Maiden races involved in these races.
I have 900 races or 150 P-6s.
In 38 of the 150 the winner had no rating of 5 or lower in CSR-PL or PP.25%.
These 3 ratings will be the same for everyone. VDC on the other hand is dependant on your paceline selection method.
Using these 3 ratings to find the main contenders will get you the main contenders 75% of the time.
The process of writing up of affordadble tickets is left upto each individual based on your bankroll.
If anyone would like to discuss these findings feel free to contact me.

Rmath

[rmath]

Kisha. I personaly use Prpfit Line,Prime Power and the CSR ratings to get the contenders in every race I handicap.
The top 5 in these three ratings has always given me 95% of all the winners for more than 9000 races in the past 7 years.
If you are looking for a quick and easy way to narrow a field to the most likely winner I suggest you check this out for a few hundred races.
Rmath

PS : good luck with your handicapping regardless of how you choose to pick your contenders.

[Lt1]

Hi Kisha and welcome to pace and cap. For the last several ys Richie, Mitch 44, and myself have espoused using the top 5 Profit line and the top 5 Bris Prime Power ranked horses. These horses will win 90-92% of all races run in America. The 3 of us have conducted numerous surveys at different tracks to verify these %s. This procedure will give you anywhere from 5 to as high as 8 contenders in a race. I have found when there are more then 6 you have a very messy race which I avoid. When conducting a 100 race survey I use multiple tracks covering different parts of the country. Hopefully some of these suggestions will be of help to you as you continue with the learning curve.
Tim

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Kisha

I read the first few issues of Follow Up and learned a little more about Energy. I am just now starting to play 100 races. Can those races be a combination of more than 1 track? I'm not trying to play more than 2 in a day. rmath, I was trying to determine what factors to use to pick contenders. Today, I looked at APV, ML, Total Energy, Speed and RC. What is equivalent to Prime Power in rdss?

If selecting a contender based on speed, is it suggested to use the SR on the Analysis/Original screen or the SR from the PoH or PoR screens. Or is the CSR the speed you mentioned the best Speed to use?

On another note, why would the sort of SR show the 6 horse at 74 above the 1 horse at 76?

Kisha

1. What is equivalent to Prime Power in Rdss? Prime Power is in RDSS (just not in the version you are using, since a couple of months - TS website glitch). Prime Power and Profit Line return with the coming update, end of the week.

2. The screen you show is sorted by TS = 'True Speed' = final-time velocity (beginning to the end, no incremental segments) = SR = Speed Rating (i.e. same thing). SR is just a number rating based on teh same final time for each paceline. There is no rank for SR but there is for TS, thus requests to sort by SR actually sort by TS instead.

HOWEVER - you ask a good question - why is SR and TS not in the same order. I don't know . They should be. I will examine the code and account for why and get back here, or fix it if something indeed needs fixing.

Ted

[Kisha]

Hi Tim,
I used Prime Power yesterday and will today. I only played 2 tracks and that was a handful. Friday night, I analyzed and spent a few hours going through races. Saturday, it seemed all for naught. After all the scratches came in, everything changed.

I definitely should PASS more races or at least that is my "feeling". Do the Maiden SW fall under the same class as Maiden races which should be passed?

I was under the impression that I should pass on Place bets. I found an article from Brisnet and decided that Win and the "Show Partial Parlay" bets were the way to go. Mind you this is with my very small sample size. I seem to be picking the contenders, just not in the right PLACE. So I decided to place PLACE bets and I won one for a little over $17. And I was excited about that.

Oh well, I'll keep practicing. I like creating my own spreadsheets. I put one together last night and I'll test it out today. What do you use to define an overlay? In my spreadsheet, I'm using 1.4. I noticed in a Follow Up or the 55% manual, overlay was defined as >= 2.5. I might need to move to the middle, but I'll know more after today's results.

Have a good week!
Kisha

[Lt1]

Hi Kisha. First let me say that I tend to play tracks like Parx,TDn,MVR, OP which have little or no turf racing since weather causes turf races to be gutted with multi scrs and surface changes. On most days you will have to deal with some level of scrs. Since I use the Bris pps and have a Twin Spires acct. I have their complete rank order so I can readily see the new ranking order without waiting for the BPP and PL rankings to be updated in RDSS. Also based on yrs of record keeping I have found that playing races carded for horses 3 &up on the dirt increases my win % by 15-20 %. With respect to Mdn races the hierarchy is MSW then mdn clm. At bigger tracks most MSW races will contain first time starters which are unknown factors. On the other hand the tracks I play have many mdn claimers where most horses have multi pacelines and can be capped and played. The Doc recommended passing races at all levels if they have more then 1 unknown factor ie FTS or Foreign horses, or races where all entrants don't have at least 3 U.S. running lines. As you gain experience and confidence you will be able to bend some of these guidelines. When it comes to place betting that is a choice the bettor makes based on their own confidence and win % level. If I remember correctly the Doc recommended placing a place bet on horses going off at 9/2 or higher There are those that will not bet place but will use the exacta as their form of place betting. That choice will yours to make. When it comes to overlays I tend to use the wagercapping approach laid out in several follow ups. I would suggest that you may want to read those and then form you opinion of what you will deem acceptable betting odds. I hope this helps you.
Tim

[Lt1]

Hi Kisha. The wager capping articles start in FU #75.
TIM

[57viking]

Based on Tim's recommendation , I read all the wagercapping articles. Barb Craven put them all in one file


http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3066

[Lt1]

Viking thanks for running down that thread. Makes for easy reading. Also thanks for giving Wagercapper his well earned props for his contributions to the FU and the Methodology.
Tim