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08-08-2011, 03:35 PM | #21 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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VDC Question:
Has anyone found tracks where VDC is not as predictive as it seems to be at Delmar?
Does VDC work universally, or is it better suited to the major vs minor circuits? I am curious to know if this factor is localized or not. thanks, Bill |
08-08-2011, 05:55 PM | #22 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
Posts: 627
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Bill: My opinion is that the relationship between velocity & deceleration is valid everywhere. I think the issue with the smaller tracks and cheaper races is finding the predictive pace line, as form does not tend to hold for several reasons.
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08-08-2011, 06:22 PM | #23 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Mth
Quote:
I am having good success at both Del Mar and Monmouth using VDC only I want to stay dialed in to what is working for me both financially and mentally. I'm doing well at Mth in the survival contest they are running Plus my daily Del Mar selections are for all to peruse. As soon as Del Mar and Mth end I will test other tracks I truly believe things will always be good with VDC Bill V. Orangeburg NY |
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08-08-2011, 06:39 PM | #24 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Vdc
Bill, I have used vdc at Beu,RD, Tdn, delaware, Mth, Saratoga , Mnr,Suffolk, Lad,CD, AP, and several other high and low class tracks over the past 20+ years and it has always held up quite well. I do believe that the win % may be a little lower at the lowest class tracks, but not enough not to play them.
Hope this helps. rmath |
08-08-2011, 08:02 PM | #25 | |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Billings, MT
Posts: 33
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Quote:
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08-08-2011, 09:22 PM | #26 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Vdc
Nice going JeffH, keep up the good work
rmath |
08-08-2011, 09:34 PM | #27 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,865
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Jeff,
There was a method to Doc's madness in having tied ranks in VDC and I think you can read his words somewhere in the Follow Up issues around the mid-70s or later. The whole point was that some horses may not have enough Total Energy to rank highly in BLBL (which is highly co-related with TE), but they are making a stong move and decelerating modestly compared to their incremental velocity. That's what VDC measures (deceleration relative to incremental velocity - segment by segment). So those horses are elevated higher than their BLBL rank would otherwise show. In other words, horses that on the surface might otherwise appear somewhat slow, but have hidden potential are brought to your attention by elevating their rank (when this has merit, do check other corollaries). His advice was to separate the tied VDC ranks based on Odds, as Rmath suggests at the outset. Consider the top 2 and ties, or the Top 3 without ties as equal, then select 2 horses from those 3 when you can get your minimum odds. Your own hit rate of 60 - 71% for Top 2 and 3 VDC horses respectively indicates that if you pick theTtop VDC above your own odds minimum, say 5/2 or 3-1 plus one more horse from the remaining 3 (separate by Odds, pick the highest odds horse of the remaining 2) - you must eventually make a profit. I suggest you go back and check your 50 races to see what net return you would end up with if you followed this recipe. In effect, if you can consistently achieve a hit rate like this, you can dial your own ROI by restricting yourself to the minimum odds required to achieve it. VDC is one thing Speculator users are missing, and a good reason to make the move to RDSS, IMO. Ted
__________________
RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
08-08-2011, 10:20 PM | #28 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Billings, MT
Posts: 33
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Thanks for the input, Ted. I will go back and work more races with using same paceline method and using the odds criteria. I will post the results if they prove profitable.
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08-14-2011, 11:43 PM | #29 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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100 race study
I now have completed 100 races with rdss2. Here are the results :
#1 vdc 51 wins #2 vdc 22 wins #3 vdc 11 wins #4 vdc 9 wins #5 vdc 2 wins eliminated 5 wins from top 5 final contenders. there were 82 perfectas in final 5 horses. 71 perfectas were in top 4 vdc horses. There were only 4 winners in the New pace horses that did not rank in the final 5 vdc contenders. New pace only had 52 perfectas in its contenders. My conclusions thus far are if any of the 4 new pace contenders are not in my final top 4 vdc horses they should be considered as non contenders. One further note this test consisted of only playable races as per Docs guidelines, unlike the first 50 races I posted. There were quite a few races in the 50 that I would not normally run. I hope that this info is a help to any and all who are interested. rmath |
08-15-2011, 07:37 PM | #30 |
Happy Punting
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posts: 485
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Woodbine - Sunday, August 14th
Ted,
Tested it yesterday with great results...... 5 races to bet (I don't bet Maidens) - we had 5 winners. 3,5,9 - good prices 7,8 - way below what I would bet on So far so good my friend..... Happy Punting JDL |
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