Saturday 3/9 - GG 7th - Pace and Cap

PeteC · 03-09-2013, 10:09 AM

Another one to Match-Up....

Capcondo · 03-09-2013, 11:31 AM

I an going to the off-track today so I'll post this without scratches.

It looks like the 1, 3, and 6 all need the lead to win. The 1 has done her best on the turf. The 6 has been off a year. I am going to put the pace on the 3's race 7 back at 22.2 where she got a 2.5L lead. I think the race will go OTE.

Here are the rest:

The 2 is slow.
The 4's best races are near the lead and she may get swallowed up but is a contender for now.
The 5 runs best from the 3rd position. Based on her closing fraction, I think she can run from further back. Out of fast tandem fighting. Hasn't run in a year. Never run a bad race.
The 7 is a router off a slow tandem. OUT.
The 8 needs a 22.3 as an E/P. OUT.

My choice is the 5.

PeteC · 03-09-2013, 03:24 PM

Hey Tim, great to see you posting here. I agree with the 3 earlies and I'm looking for an OTE from 4th against 22 / 22.1 and 45.1 or so...

The 2 is slow...OUT
The 4 has won from 1st 3rd and 5th against 22.2 45.4, a little too slow to me...OUT
The 5 has won from 3rd against this pace...IN
The 7 closed from way back to be a close 3rd against a similar pace...IN
The 8 has won from 4th against a similar pace and finished second by 1.25 lengths against a little faster pace too...IN

I will take the 8 on top and the 7 for second place.

lone speed · 03-09-2013, 04:05 PM

Hey Capcondo....

Great to see you back here...great analysis as always...

I will take a shot at eyeballing this race...

At first glance, it looks like a race loaded with early speed...

But I am going to go with the best early...#1.....those downhill fractions are insane...also those mile turf times at Santa Anita...

#8 looks to have ran best sustained off those 5.5 furlongs races..

So these are my two...

Thanks Pete...
Let's keep the train going until Richie gets back here...

Good skills

Bill V. · 03-09-2013, 05:22 PM

Hi Matchers

Sorry I am out of this one. Too many issues
Here is my Phase 1 workup

Name: GG7.PNG
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PeteC · 03-09-2013, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lone speed

Hey Capcondo....

Great to see you back here...great analysis as always...

I will take a shot at eyeballing this race...

At first glance, it looks like a race loaded with early speed...

But I am going to go with the best early...#1.....those downhill fractions are insane...also those mile turf times at Santa Anita...

#8 looks to have ran best sustained off those 5.5 furlongs races..

So these are my two...

Thanks Pete...
Let's keep the train going until Richie gets back here...

Good skills

You got it man.....we will keep it going. Well done sir in this one too. You were right on about speed of the speed with the 1 horse.

My E/OTE read in both races was off today but you had 'em. Great calls and the win payoff here was good.

Pete

Bill V. · 03-09-2013, 09:23 PM

Nice work to all. Way to go Lone Speed

Thank you for the races, look forward to more

Bill

Capcondo · 03-12-2013, 03:12 AM

Nice one Lone Speed. Your intuition trumped our analysis. There's a lesson to be learned in that.

03-09-2013, 11:31 AM	#2
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Gg #7 I an going to the off-track today so I'll post this without scratches. It looks like the 1, 3, and 6 all need the lead to win. The 1 has done her best on the turf. The 6 has been off a year. I am going to put the pace on the 3's race 7 back at 22.2 where she got a 2.5L lead. I think the race will go OTE. Here are the rest: The 2 is slow. The 4's best races are near the lead and she may get swallowed up but is a contender for now. The 5 runs best from the 3rd position. Based on her closing fraction, I think she can run from further back. Out of fast tandem fighting. Hasn't run in a year. Never run a bad race. The 7 is a router off a slow tandem. OUT. The 8 needs a 22.3 as an E/P. OUT. My choice is the 5. __________________ Tim Don't look back. You're not going that way.

03-09-2013, 04:05 PM	#4
lone speed Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 695	speed of the speed Hey Capcondo.... Great to see you back here...great analysis as always... I will take a shot at eyeballing this race... At first glance, it looks like a race loaded with early speed... But I am going to go with the best early...#1.....those downhill fractions are insane...also those mile turf times at Santa Anita... #8 looks to have ran best sustained off those 5.5 furlongs races.. So these are my two... Thanks Pete... Let's keep the train going until Richie gets back here... Good skills

03-09-2013, 05:22 PM	#5
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Pass Hi Matchers Sorry I am out of this one. Too many issues Here is my Phase 1 workup

03-09-2013, 09:23 PM	#7
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Lone Speed Nice work to all. Way to go Lone Speed Thank you for the races, look forward to more Bill

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03-09-2013, 03:24 PM	#3
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Hey Tim, great to see you posting here. I agree with the 3 earlies and I'm looking for an OTE from 4th against 22 / 22.1 and 45.1 or so... The 2 is slow...OUT The 4 has won from 1st 3rd and 5th against 22.2 45.4, a little too slow to me...OUT The 5 has won from 3rd against this pace...IN The 7 closed from way back to be a close 3rd against a similar pace...IN The 8 has won from 4th against a similar pace and finished second by 1.25 lengths against a little faster pace too...IN I will take the 8 on top and the 7 for second place.

03-12-2013, 03:12 AM	#8
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Nice one Lone Speed. Your intuition trumped our analysis. There's a lesson to be learned in that. __________________ Tim Don't look back. You're not going that way.