Daily varient

[Bill V.]

Hi I wanted to see of I could figure what the out the daily track variant was for yesterday at PARX.

Here is what I came up with am I correct?I really don't know the correct way
and would like to know If you can help me

I did all the route races

Final Time of the winner / Parx 3 year best

Race 1 1 Mile 141.80 / 135.60 So 141.80-135.60=6.2 seconds x .20=12.40
So the winners POR final time was 12.40 slower than the 3 year best
so would the variant for race 1 be 12-13

If I do this same procedure for all the route races yesterday at Parx
and then add up all the totals then divide by the number of routes run
yesterday would that be the Daily track variant ?

Thanks
Bill

[mikesal57]

Bill

I wish I could tell you this is easy....
But I believe you need to record and then compile a par for each class race
Once you get this , you then can get a daily variant for each day by comparing the times of the races ran that day vs what the pars are for those classes..

example:

race 1....claiming 15000...par 1:11.2...actual time of race 1:11.0....FAST 2
race 2....claiming 5000nw2l...par 1:12.1....actual time....1:12.0.....FAST 1
race 3...alw nw1x..............par 1:10.2.......actual time....1:10.4.....SLOW 2

etc...etc...

after all the races are done...you then avg the difference to get the daily variant for that day..

I'm sure FTL can chip in here if I'm wrong...I think using the best 3 year time is not the way to go

good luck

mike

[mikesal57]

an easy way to get info....open past Prx cards and record dates and Trackmasters variants .....these are decent and available

a suggestion ....

[SilentRun]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi I wanted to see of I could figure what the out the daily track variant was for yesterday at PARX.

Here is what I came up with am I correct?I really don't know the correct way
and would like to know If you can help me

I did all the route races

Final Time of the winner / Parx 3 year best

Race 1 1 Mile 141.80 / 135.60 So 141.80-135.60=6.2 seconds x .20=12.40
So the winners POR final time was 12.40 slower than the 3 year best
so would the variant for race 1 be 12-13

If I do this same procedure for all the route races yesterday at Parx
and then add up all the totals then divide by the number of routes run
yesterday would that be the Daily track variant ?

Thanks
Bill

Good question....I am not the best qualified in this area. I never bothered with the track variants but all I can say that.... what you have computed is the AVERAGE DAILY TRACK VARIANT FOR ROUTES.

Let say there are 4 routes and thus 4 separate variants (V1 to V4).
The Total Variants (TV) = V1 + V2 + V3 + V4

Then the Average Daily Track Variant for Routes = (V1 + V2 + V3 + V4)/4
or TV/4.

So if this is no help then toss it in the round circular file.

Regards,

Ernie

[Bill V.]

Thanks Mike and Ernie

Mike Yes I am aware of the DTV from RDSS
my problem is I think these numbers are a plus or minus from a daily track
variant par

I have been using The TPR numbers in RDSS they are very close to what
I see in Pace Makes The Race yet every now and then I get a race were the RDSS numbers are crazy

I have the ability to do the Phase 1 numbers from the Dick Shimdts and Tom Hambletons program TPR and I have updated all the 3 year best track records
The problem is the program ask to enter the Daily track variant when entering pace lines

What I do is enter each line for a horse and compare what I get from TPR to what RDSS is showing Actually Its very close but for the DTV i just have been entering 18

Here is a horse I worked on yesterday from race 8 # 3
I have added the TPR programs results next to the TPR readouts on RDSS
The last line and the other 7.0 lines are way off on EPR the balance numbers are close but sometimes the difference between the two programs TPR
numbers are too far apart
Storms last line looks good but the horse finished dead last

anyway The DTV is such a mystery why it needs to be I dont know
why can't it just be what is in the DRF

Bill


Here

[For The Lead]

DRF - If you were to add up ALL the track variants from ALL the races from ALL the tracks from ALL over the country for a year and then divided that by the number of variants added together, you would get an "average" track variant for the year of "17", or so I have read.

Personally, I have never done that. However, years ago I had my own "Phase I" program where I included that "average" of "17". When you manually entered lines for each horse, you also entered the track variant from the Racing Form. And naturally, you had to enter the track abbreviation. The program would take the final time you entered (including beaten lengths) and make a calculation based on the "3 year best time" for that track and distance. Then it would adjust those times by calculating the difference between the "average" track variant of "17" and the actual track variant you entered from the Racing Form. If the variant you entered was "10" that meant the track was "10 fast" so it would "add 10" to the time, slowing the time down accordingly. If the variant you entered was "27", then the track was "10 slow", so it would "subtract 10" from the time, making the time faster. The result was your adjusted final time.

TRACKMASTER on the other hand, has their own "proprietary" calculation of track variants. But like the DRF, they have a base number from which to make adjustments. Their base number is "0". So, if the variant you see is a "+3" that means the track was "3 slow", so you would "add 3" to the speed rating you see, speeding the horse up. If the variant you see is "-5", that means the track was "5 fast", so you would "subtract 5" from the speed rating you see, slowing the horse down.

Since most of you use RDSS, let's use that as an example.
If you see a horse that just won a 6f race in 1.10.0 with a track variant of -10 and another horse that just won a 6f race in 1.10.0 with a track variant of +10, do you think these two horses are equal?

[Bill V.]

Hi FTL

Yes it sounds like we have a similar Phase 1 program

Here is my next question Lets look at horse 3 from above In line 1
he gets a 90 TM speed rating with a 4 DTV which means it was 4 slower than
PAR does that mean the horse ran a 86 speed rating plus 4 for 90 or did the horse
run a 90 and did it on a slow 4 day so his speed rating for line 1 should be adjusted to 86

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Hi FTL

Yes it sounds like we have a similar Phase 1 program

Here is my next question Lets look at horse 3 from above In line 1
he gets a 90 TM speed rating with a 4 DTV which means it was 4 slower than
PAR does that mean the horse ran a 86 speed rating plus 4 for 90 or did the horse
run a 90 and did it on a slow 4 day so his speed rating for line 1 should be adjusted to 86

I'll tell you what, let's take lines 1,2 and 5.

line 1 is 90(SR), 4(meaning +4(DTV)) = final speed rating of 94
line 2 is 98(SR), -5(DTV)................... = final speed rating of 93
line 5 is 93(SR), 0 (DTV)................... = final speed rating of 93

When adjusted by track variant, all three lines are just about the same with line 1 being "1 tick" faster than the other two.

[Bill V.]

The 3 year best time for Parx 7.0 is 120.40
Storm won the race in line 1 The POR winning time was 124.60
That means Stormy ran 4.1/5 seconds slower than the 3 year best
What was Stormys speed rating in line 1? Would it be 79? how many fifths are in
4.1/5 seconds would it be 21 ?
4.20 second / .20 = 100 - 21 = 79

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

The 3 year best time for Parx 7.0 is 120.40
Storm won the race in line 1 The POR winning time was 124.60
That means Stormy ran 4.1/5 seconds slower than the 3 year best
What was Stormys speed rating in line 1? Would it be 79? how many fifths are in
4.1/5 seconds would it be 21 ?
4.20 second / .20 = 100 - 21 = 79

You have too many different things going on here.

The answer to your question is, yes. But the problem is, that calculation is the type of calculation that we would be doing with a Racing Form. So where is your track variant? You can't use Trackmasters variant, it's completely different. The variant from the Racing Form may increase or decrease that "79" speed rating, but without the Racing Form variant, we don't know and therefore don't have a complete picture.

If you are going to use these things, you have to use ONE or THE OTHER. You can't "mix and match". It don't work.

If you are trying to "match", with your Phase I program, what Trackmaster has, it just isn't going to happen, unless it is a freak accident.