Early is where its at

[Tim Y]

Dr. William Quirin, in his great work, Winning at the Races: Computer Discovers in Thoroughbred Handicapping, DOCUMENTED what I always knew...p. 14 "No matter how you look at these statistics, the same conclusion must be reached: the closer a horse is during the race, the closer it will be at the finish, and the more familiar its backers will be with the cashier's window. ALL the vital statistics become increasingly less favorable as view move down these tables, from pacesetters, of pace prompters, to the come from behinders.

MORE significantly, the %WIN column points out that the early leaders - the FCP (first call potion 1-3 group--account's for 57 percent of the victories-- a rate slightly better than 5 races per 9 race card."

I first put this to very good use at little Hastings when I worked there, it being a bull ring where speed is king most day, but the emperor when it was wet. When I expanded to other speed track (FE, Parx, etc.) MOST finishing top 3 were the top 3 fraction ones. At one point (when I got the first inkling of COATTAILS, I used this to good avail in getting good tri prices particularly with the wet and cold weather of Fall/Winter. In the Winter, Parx can go weeks with only the TOP earlies filling the finishing board

I have LONG held that Hollywood did us all a disservice in showing race after race in their films with winners coming from VERY far out of it: Seabiscuit is an example with the two main characters sitting back and chatting to one another down the back side far from the pack.. THAT leaves a strong imprint on the young mind in what is perceived as the NORMAL way races are run. I must admit that off the pace winners are exciting, but more often than not (as they OFTEN do not get up in time) FRUSTRATING. Years of photofinishing CONFIRMED that as fact

NOW this is ALL on the main tracks and most of this does NOT relate to the grass runnings.

Look what a non-pace horse has to overcome: 1)KICKBACK, worse in the wet and cold, 2) Having absolutely ZERO contribution to the pace ahead of them and having to passively accept what they cannot alter, 3) the rider is forced to be in a lane usually NOT of his/her choosing, 4) the come from behind have to time their moves EXACTLY based on only a best guess pace up front, and then ) the BIGGEST problem, they have to maneuver through the horses ahead of them without any abrupt moves to block that motion, AND if the rider needs to check or steady, it is near impossible to get that momentum going again 5) as Huey Mahl informed us all, a horse has to OVERCOME two units of energy for every ONE lost at the 2nd call and that alone cannot be calculated because sometimes that ratio moves to 3 to one. 6) the pace of race changes at each outing so that coming out of it, the rider can never know what is going to happen ahead of him/her and has to ADAPT on the fly.

If you look at the combination of Quirin speed points, and fraction one velocities (for I learned the hard way that position is a BLEND of these two factors NOT one or the other) you can tag the majority of these early positioners IF they are in FORM...

Recall that Bradshaw suggested that the MATCH-UP start in the first fraction. The SPEED of a horse is a genetic inborn function of a horse based upon the percentage of fast twitch neuromuscular junctions. Laffit Pincay has been quoted "the first fraction BELONGS to the horse as you cannot change it that much." If an animal cannot keep up in F1, they are at a HUGE disadvantage come fraction 2.This is why there is usually not that much variation in the early velocities of horse that are quick.

Now how are the sustained and sustained/pressers contributing? SP ratings are REACTIVE without much consistency earlier. You can be really fooled by them particularly if there is one that sticks out (at ONE RACE WONDER).

Variability versus repetition (speed) I will take the latter everytime

[noddub62]

Very interesting post.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by noddub62

Very interesting post.

One of my early favorites, the Arkansas Traveler, who won both the Californian and SA Handicaps. Saw him at Three Chimneys in a paddock next to Genuine Risk