Updated Del Mar Track Profile

[Bill V.]

I have refined my Del Mar Profile
Its now in Excel/OpenOffice format

Factors AVE, MaX and MIN totals

Each distance and Surface is tabbed on bottom left corner

Good Skill
at Del Mar
Bill V.

[Bill V.]

Weds 8/18 = first day back after 2 dark days / Profile showed a very slight
turn to early.
Race 5 at 8.0 shows last 3 races wire to wire winners
here is the updated file

[Bill V.]

Things pretty much holding to the average for the meet
I have updated the profile including races on 8/20

I have switched the average totals to 10 race increments as
Doc suggests in follow up # 29

[Bill V.]

updated and including races on 8/22

I have added EPR LPR and TPR for the winning horse
thanks to Houndog for the TPR chart



DMTP6U.xls

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

updated and including races on 8/22

I have added EPR LPR and TPR for the winning horse
thanks to Houndog for the TPR chart

Hello Bill,

I have been following your track profiles and waiting for you to get a few races together at each distance.

In a short meet like Dmr it's hard to get enough races at each distance to provide any conclusive results, nevertheless, I will try to demonstrate what I believe to be helpful hints, not just with "track profiles", but with "decision models" as well.

I have attached your track profile and added a column to the 6f races only. In this column I added information about each race, such as "CLM 8K NW2L 3UF". For those who may not be familiar with this, it simply means a "claiming race with a claiming price of $8,000 with a non-winners of two races lifetime condition for three year old and up fillies and mares". My reason for doing this is to illustrate that both track profiles and decision models should be broken down by more than just distance and surface.

Here's a couple of examples from your short profile:

Would you be surprised to see that the fastest race of those you recorded belongs to the winner of a GRADE I race, while the slowest race belongs to the winner of a claiming race for $12,500 with a NW2L condition for 3 year old and up fillies and mares? Do you think it is practical for these two races to be in the same profile or model?

Would you be surprised to see that the next three fastest races (all tied) were run by the winners of:
ALW NW1$X 3U
CLM 40k OPEN 4U
CLM 16k 0PEN 3U

while the next slowest time was turned in by:
CLM 8k OPEN 3UF
???

Do you find it interesting that the top 4 fastest times were run by males while the two slowest times were run by females?
There is no getting away from it. Age,sex and class determine final time, like it or not.
So shouldn't profiles and models be kept in the same way?
DMTP6U-2REV.xls

[Bill V.]

FTL Thanks for helping me out
Yes I agree with you . I apprecicate any help that is offered
I am learning as I go along I just read recently
(Follow Up 29-30 ) about breaking the profile into
classes I read and had planned to break it down to
Low class Mid class and High class races
as Doc recommends

I just have not figured out how to sort the data

I had not thought about races for male/females only

Thanks for your help

Bill

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

FTL Thanks for helping me out
Yes I agree with you . I apprecicate any help that is offered
I am learning as I go along I just read recently
(Follow Up 29-30 ) about breaking the profile into
classes I read and had planned to break it down to
Low class Mid class and High class races
as Doc recommends

I just have not figured out how to sort the data

I had not thought about races for male/females only

Thanks for your help

Bill

No problem, Bill.
You might want to take a look at my post here. http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...8290#post68290

[Bill V.]

I have updated my Del Mar Data for Decision Making
I have taken out the TPR numbers .
seems they confused some of you since they are raw and not what
RDSS is showing

Anyway this is raw data from result charts
I am sharing with you my Sartin Methodology friends
I hope you find this data helpful in what ever way you feel
will be best for you

Sorry for the delay in the update. I am feeling much better

Bill
DMTP6U.xls