Place and Show bets - Pace and Cap

chuckg · 12-22-2011, 03:57 PM

We know that two win bets outperform single win wagers. Does anybody know if the same strategy applies to place and show bets? Would betting four horses to place or six to show be a viable practice?

Bill V. · 12-22-2011, 04:03 PM

anyway welcome to pace and cap
6 horses to show you sure will go to the window often LOL

JimG · 12-22-2011, 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chuckg

We know that two win bets outperform single win wagers. Does anybody know if the same strategy applies to place and show bets? Would betting four horses to place or six to show be a viable practice?

By outperform, do you mean win races or make more money? It depends on the price and hit rate of the horses you are betting for either single win bet wagering or 2 separate horses to win to be profitable. I doubt you would profit betting 4 horses to place or 6 horses to show. The takeout on each bet would crush you long term.

Jim

chuckg · 12-22-2011, 04:42 PM

By outperform I mean a higher ROI. So, higher profits. I believe it was in the Chaos manual where the two win bet was shown to produce a higher ROI even against the guarantee of one loss per race. I wonder if the same result holds true to the other two positions.

rmath · 12-22-2011, 05:47 PM

Chuckg, I would think that betting two horses to place or show might be profitable to some extent , but using 4 or 6 horses ( in my opinion ) would be cost prohibitive.
A 6 horse show bet at 2.00 each would require a combined 12.00 return on each play just to break even. I have no records of place or show averages but I doubt they would average4.00 to show when the national win average is around 9/2.
Good luck.

SilentRun · 12-22-2011, 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chuckg

We know that two win bets outperform single win wagers. Does anybody know if the same strategy applies to place and show bets? Would betting four horses to place or six to show be a viable practice?

RE: Place and Show..bet one horse only to P/S. Your best contender (other than the low odds favorite). Then bet the total amount you would allocate for the 4 or 6 horses) say $4 to place and $8 to show. Track it and try it... I think this way it would be more profitable then going with 4-6 horses.

Ernie

partsnut · 12-23-2011, 07:01 AM

chuckg:

Quote:

We know that two win bets outperform single win wagers. Does anybody know if the same strategy applies to place and show bets? Would betting four horses to place or six to show be a viable practice?

Why and how do we know this?

Quote:

By outperform I mean a higher ROI. So, higher profits. I believe it was in the Chaos manual where the two win bet was shown to produce a higher ROI even against the guarantee of one loss per race. I wonder if the same result holds true to the other two positions.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Welcome to the board. I would have to respectfully disagree with the above statement.
To me the "Chaos Manual' is not the Gospel. Many versed authors will
tell you the complete opposite.
If you wish to believe and subscribe to that way of thinking, I am not faulting you.
In my opinion, one horse win betting and seeking value is the only way to bet.

Merry Christmas

chuckg · 12-23-2011, 10:46 AM

Good point. How do we really know. The two win bet trials are found on pages 71-72 in the Chaos manual. I looked it up this morning. I see that betting two horses to win is a standard strategy that shows up in the manuals and follow ups.

I did a quick lookback to the last two cards I worked to see if betting two to six horses to show was more profitable than betting just one. Based on the paselines I selected on those days I would have lost more $2's that the $2.20 and $2.40 payouts could ever replenish.

Looking at the results it would seem that had my pacelines been more predictive my $12 would have been better spent on exactas instead of shows.

Ted Craven · 12-23-2011, 02:38 PM

Re Show betting - I don't have much opinion, and think money would be better spent on Win or Exacta pools. I think the issue is to narrow the focus on true contenders to about 3.

Re multi-horse win betting, I do have an opinion:

If I like the 1 and 1A entry as primary contenders, and the post time odds are 2-1, if the #1 wins, the #1A loses, but my entry bet still pays at 2-1.

If in another race, I like the #1 at 4-1 and the #2 at 7-1 and I bet a synthetic entry of the #4 and #7 - and the #4 wins and the #7 loses, my bet pays ... 2-1, same as the first example. I consider a 2 hose bet as a synthetic entry which has a high and low payoff potential. A normal entry also has a high and low payoff potential - but the high and low are the same amount.

In between the above possibilities, are multi-wagers like Win/Place on 1 horse with a variable high/low payoff, Win on 1 horse, Place on another horse, Place on 2 horses, etc. Consider that it's not important how many horses you are betting, or in which pools, but rather what is your payoff range, your ROI, compared to your risk.

Ted

donmodonnel2000 · 12-24-2011, 11:50 AM

chuckg
If you are interested in place dutching look up Huey Mahl. He was an early positive influence on Howard. In one of the Follow Ups, Howard commented that if he read only the work of Mahl, he would have arrived at his own methodology much faster. Anyway, Huey wrote a couple of great articles on place dutching which I expect you can likely find on the web.

12-23-2011, 02:38 PM	#9
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	Re Show betting - I don't have much opinion, and think money would be better spent on Win or Exacta pools. I think the issue is to narrow the focus on true contenders to about 3. Re multi-horse win betting, I do have an opinion: If I like the 1 and 1A entry as primary contenders, and the post time odds are 2-1, if the #1 wins, the #1A loses, but my entry bet still pays at 2-1. If in another race, I like the #1 at 4-1 and the #2 at 7-1 and I bet a synthetic entry of the #4 and #7 - and the #4 wins and the #7 loses, my bet pays ... 2-1, same as the first example. I consider a 2 hose bet as a synthetic entry which has a high and low payoff potential. A normal entry also has a high and low payoff potential - but the high and low are the same amount. In between the above possibilities, are multi-wagers like Win/Place on 1 horse with a variable high/low payoff, Win on 1 horse, Place on another horse, Place on 2 horses, etc. Consider that it's not important how many horses you are betting, or in which pools, but rather what is your payoff range, your ROI, compared to your risk. Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
MNR -- huh?	alydar_ David	General Discussion	17	04-13-2013 08:33 PM
Arlington - June 4th	RichieP	Races of Interest	23	06-19-2011 09:23 PM
Better betting strategy	pktruckdriver	Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum	18	06-08-2010 07:32 AM
Gulfstream Park-- Sunday, April 4	alydar_ David	Selections	5	04-05-2010 08:30 AM
Win & Place	alydar_ David	General Discussion	5	01-12-2009 12:52 PM

12-22-2011, 03:57 PM	#1
chuckg Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 168	Place and Show bets We know that two win bets outperform single win wagers. Does anybody know if the same strategy applies to place and show bets? Would betting four horses to place or six to show be a viable practice?

12-22-2011, 04:03 PM	#2
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	anyway welcome to pace and cap 6 horses to show you sure will go to the window often LOL

12-22-2011, 04:42 PM	#4
chuckg Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 168	By outperform I mean a higher ROI. So, higher profits. I believe it was in the Chaos manual where the two win bet was shown to produce a higher ROI even against the guarantee of one loss per race. I wonder if the same result holds true to the other two positions.

12-22-2011, 05:47 PM	#5
rmath Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,676	Chuckg, I would think that betting two horses to place or show might be profitable to some extent , but using 4 or 6 horses ( in my opinion ) would be cost prohibitive. A 6 horse show bet at 2.00 each would require a combined 12.00 return on each play just to break even. I have no records of place or show averages but I doubt they would average4.00 to show when the national win average is around 9/2. Good luck.

12-23-2011, 10:46 AM	#8
chuckg Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 168	Good point. How do we really know. The two win bet trials are found on pages 71-72 in the Chaos manual. I looked it up this morning. I see that betting two horses to win is a standard strategy that shows up in the manuals and follow ups. I did a quick lookback to the last two cards I worked to see if betting two to six horses to show was more profitable than betting just one. Based on the paselines I selected on those days I would have lost more $2's that the $2.20 and $2.40 payouts could ever replenish. Looking at the results it would seem that had my pacelines been more predictive my $12 would have been better spent on exactas instead of shows.

12-24-2011, 11:50 AM	#10
donmodonnel2000 Maiden Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2	chuckg If you are interested in place dutching look up Huey Mahl. He was an early positive influence on Howard. In one of the Follow Ups, Howard commented that if he read only the work of Mahl, he would have arrived at his own methodology much faster. Anyway, Huey wrote a couple of great articles on place dutching which I expect you can likely find on the web.