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05-01-2016, 08:08 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,547
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Derby Wagering Stratigies
I asked this on a few forums, but this one is special to me and think the players here are extremely talented and know how to wager properly.
I was wondering of the different type of wagering strategies you , may have for the Derby/ Oaks days this year. We all know my OCD obsession with the Derby Super, but with small bankrolls it is tough to hit a bet like that, but there are so many other little wagers that one could more easily hit, when using a program such as ours. For example a Pick 3 o f 3x3x3 for a 1.00 is only 27.00 If you can find a single in a pick 4 could cost 1x3x3x3 also 27.00 12 races for Oaks Day 13 races for Derby Day I have an old habit of a 25,00 exacta play for a 1.00 top 5 odds over top 5 lowest odds ( and sometimes reverse it too) Please share anything if you want, thanks Patrick PS: I will be somewhere holed up in a Hotel online playing these 2 days and if anyone wishes join me through the many different Instant Message forms we have today I would love to have the company , even if for a few races, like Facebook video , Skype, etc.. let me know, please do not be shy, I would so much love the opportunity to say hi again or for the 1st time.
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http://pktruckdriver.blogspot.com/ |
05-02-2016, 11:26 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 389
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Awesome post and idea of a thread, I'm going to have to think on this one and then come back with a response
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05-03-2016, 09:24 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 377
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derby superperfecta
since the derby only comes only once a year(hey, just like christmas), why not step up and out. Consider this: using 1 key horse to win and 2 other keys in all 4 positions with ALL, well let's see what this will cost.
A-b-c-all(17)=17 A-b-all-c =17 A-all-b-c =17 all-A-b-c =17 17*4=68 Hmmm.......,now reverse your top choice(A) with 2nd choice(b) for another $68. Now ask yourself this: what's my Risk vs. Reward? Still too much, then consider the triple: A-b-All=18 A-All-b=18 b-A-All=18 b-All-A=18 All-A-b=18 All-b-A=18 Cost=$108 Now substitute c for b and go for another $108. What's a $216 investment in the Kentucky Derby?????? Again ask what's my Risk vs. Reward? Still too much.Well then wheel the 3 horses down in the exacta or bet 3 horses to win or wheel your top horse down and bet your other 2 to win. Or use your 3 horses in front and back DD's or Pick 3's. HEY DON'T JUST SIT THERE-MAKE A DECISION,THIS IS THE DERBY!!! Later, Omar. I'm going to post my take on this years derby on Friday after 8 PM EDT under General Discussion. |
05-06-2016, 07:23 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,547
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Oh well it is Friday and I will be playing all day Belmont and Churchill Downs. Anyone is welcome to join me today , even if for a few minutes. We use to do this here, not sure why we don't anymore, but fun times are ahead if you join me, and maybe a nice hit or 3,
Either way Good luck these next few days, and the rest of the year too. pktruckdriver is my Skype pktruckdriver@msn.com email or PM me and we can use Whats Up app we can even use Facebook Messenger patrick
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http://pktruckdriver.blogspot.com/ |
05-06-2016, 10:18 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 389
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With regards to wager strategy for the derby,
My top 3 are Creator, Destin, and Mohaymen. I may just box the three in an exacta. Will definitely have something with Destin, and Mohaymen on top with lots others underneath. As of now my win bets will go to Destin and Mohaymen. |
05-06-2016, 12:09 PM | #6 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Patrick
Quote:
I like to post races ahead of time. I try to do a race and give people a few hours to look it over, Then after the race describe what happened and pace line / betting strategies. Doc said it best Betting horses should be a lonely activity We should be soloist not members of an Orchestra. I have a question for you , I know you used to do group racing with a few members you met here Why did you stop ? Did you find these sessions helpful or hurtful YOUR development. |
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05-06-2016, 12:18 PM | #7 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Capper
I might try this one with my top 5 TPR horses
This is Capper's ticket from the 2000 Derby From follow up #81 Looks like he took the top 2 over 3 over the top 5 of Bottom Line Betting line He only put the favorite Fucahsi, who won, in the win spot |
05-06-2016, 12:28 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,547
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I stopped because a person got upset, not sure why, (I am such a likable guy) and took my other participants with him and the ladies and left me out in the cold. I did not want to put the ladies in the middle of anything so I just quit skyping and went solo, before I went on hiatus.
Now this also happened when I needed a hiatus from racing too, so it wasn't that hard to accept, as I was gone anyway. I even talked a little with you Bill, also with Patricia, Barb and even Ted very rarely, and one other guy, but that was then, few years ago. but we move on and did those get togethers help, yes I think so, especially the time spent with Barb were golden moments, time you treasure as she was just spectacular in her analysis I learned a lot, they will be missed. Well off to lunch , so far today I had all winners, but nothing paying big yet, but seems we/I am somewhat zeroed in pretty well. How are you doing Bill, you had a few health issues when I left a few years ago, hope all is well with you and yours Patrick
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http://pktruckdriver.blogspot.com/ |
05-06-2016, 01:17 PM | #9 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Doing well
Patrick
Thank you for your honest answer , I fully understand what happened to you, I too have lost "friends" over silly opinions on a $16 winner People like Jeff (shoeless) Barb and Ted , Mike Momens, and recently Latekick. They all work very hard So I respect what they do. Even if I use different approach . As for me , Yes thank you I have recovered from my kidney issues. I have to watch my blood pressure Thanks to the love of a wonderful lady I got into yoga and meditation, I am walking and relaxing and learning to live for NOW. After about 3 year of rest and taking care of myself I was able to pass the DOT physical so I went back to driving, I love driving western regional, I drive for Heartland Express. I don't push too hard so I get lots of time off I can work races from my truck, I soon will be getting my dish so I can watch TVG. I bet with Twinspires so watching races from my cab is possible I get to come home to San Diego just about every weekend, So when I'm off the road I can go to Del Mar and the beach |
05-06-2016, 01:28 PM | #10 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,547
|
Quote:
Again I am so happy for you, and as for losing a friend it happens, sadly yes, but maybe a new firend is out there to fill that spot, who knows, I will be ok. Patrick
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http://pktruckdriver.blogspot.com/ Last edited by pktruckdriver; 05-06-2016 at 01:31 PM. |
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