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08-15-2011, 12:31 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Saratoga Springs
Posts: 1,547
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Saratoga 7th
here is race where most pacelines are similar, but the [rogram does not and can not see that the 11 horse is a Todd Pletcher horse, ML 1.8 , but the program is pretty good too, so advice here, besides the normal PASS
11/ 9,1,7 or keybox / box 9,1,7, / win bets 9,1,7
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08-15-2011, 02:39 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
Posts: 627
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Not an RDSS user and I'm at work so I don't have these PP's, but if in fact we have an 11 horse field and only 2 contenders have run on the turf, there may be value here.
The fav doesn't appear to have run on the turf or gone 2 turns, and is coming off a 211 day layoff. Plecher is a fine trainer and the fact that he's 1.8-1 may say more about this field - seems he may be the only early contender as well. Has 8F on the inner turf been running early? See if any contenders are lightly raced fillies that fit the conditions well that have shown something on the turf or might have some turf breeding or a good turf trainer and might be some value. Preferably have shown something at N1X or are just comong off a straight maiden win, least preference to claimers. You would have to make a real case to bet the 30-1 ML - she is that for a reason, although I can't tell what class these guyshave been running at. Tread lightly if at all - not a race for a major investment. If you bet exactas, just bet the combos that provide some value. By the time they get through hammering the favorite, there may not be many. Your place profile may help you. Betting your BLBL blindly in this race may not be the best approach. |
08-15-2011, 08:10 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
Posts: 627
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Switch to 7f on a sloppy track kills that
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08-16-2011, 10:16 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
Posts: 627
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7th race - Saratoga - August 15, 2011
Off at: 4:23 Race Type: Allowance Video Race Replay Age Restriction: Three Year Old and Upward Sex Restriction: Fillies and Mares Purse: $66,600 Distance: Seven Furlongs On The Dirt - Originally Scheduled For One Mile On Inner turf Track Condition: Sloppy Winning Time: 1:26.24 Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show 1 In Step Alan Garcia 9.00 5.70 3.50 5 Indian Tale Ryan Curatolo 4.60 3.00 11 Shared Heart John R. Velazquez 2.80 Also ran: 9 - Heavenly Landing , 12 - Raffie's Rose , 7 - Lady Gracenote , 3 - Earthly Reserves , 13 - Victoria Lynn Scratched horses: Sex Appeal (Off-Turf) , Dominant Currency (Off-Turf) , Font (Off-Turf) , Warm Hugs (Off-Turf) , Northern Coast (Off-Turf) |
08-16-2011, 06:59 PM | #5 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
It means the ONLY way a horse can be eligible to run in this race is if it has ONLY beat a field of maidens OR a field or "FIELDS" (that's plural) of claiming races. In other words, a horse could have won 100 races, as long as they were only claiming races, and still be eligible for this race. OK, let's start with the first part of the condition, non winners of a race other than maiden. So every horse in this race has beat a field of maidens. Alright, that means anything from the lowliest maiden claimer all the way up to and including a MSW (maiden special weight ) race. Horses that broke their maiden in a maiden claiming race are easier to gauge, since, "in general", they are worth about one half of the value of the race in which they broke their maiden when they are entered into an "open" claiming race. In other words, a horse that breaks its' maiden in a $10,000 maiden claimer can be expected to perform well at $5,000 in an "open" claiming race. Horses that broke their maiden in a maiden special weight (MSW) race, however, are another story. What is the "primary reason" for a horse being entered into a maiden special weight (MSW) race? Right. They owner doesn't want to take a chance on the horse being claimed away from him. He "thinks" he has a horse of some value. Many times these thoughts are mis-guided and the horse ends up being one of those 1 for 20 horses entered into a NW1X. In other words, as a handicapper, one has no idea at what level this horse can compete, since it has never beat anything other than a field of maidens, which brings me to the second part of the condition, the "or claiming" part. As I said above, a horse that has only run in claiming races, at any level from $3,500 claiming races to $100,000 claiming races and won them, is eligible to run in this race. Now the writer above has indicated that in a NW1X race on the turf, one should look for... "fit the conditions well that have shown something on the turf" "might have some turf breeding" "a good turf trainer" "Preferably have shown something at N1X or are just coming off a straight maiden win, least preference to claimers" OK, I'll take these one at a time. 1 - a horse that "fit the conditions well that have shown something on the turf". I have to assume "fitting the condition well" meant other NW1X races and that "showing something" meant... Early speed and faded? Closed to run 2nd or 3rd? They certainly did not win or they couldn't be in this race today. 2 - "might have some turf breeding". Maybe it has turf breeding and maybe it doesn't. If "the horse" won't run well on the turf, does the breeding really matter? 3 - "a good turf trainer". Is there such a thing as a good turf trainer? Or are there trainers that have horses that like running on the turf and therefore run good on the turf? 4 - "Preferably have shown something at N1X or are just coming off a straight maiden win, least preference to claimers". The first part of this has already been addressed in number 1 above. As to the second part, if a horse is coming off a maiden win and that win was in the horses debut race or even its' second or third lifetime race and that winning race was on the turf, yes, it is worth looking at. However, if the horse "finally" broke its' maiden after many, many attempts, all that says is, it finally found a field it could beat because the field was that bad. 5 - finally we come to "least preference to claimers". I'm not sure if the writer meant lest preference to claimers that are coming off a maiden win or claimers in general, so I'm just going to write this as though the write meant "in general". In a NW1X (non winners of a race other than maiden or claiming) I don't care if it is on dirt, poly or turf, the first thing to look for is a "successful" horse. What is a successful horse? A horse that has demonstrated it can win races. In a NW1X this can ONLY be a claiming horse. Consider this, a horse that has only beat a field of maidens has not yet established its' class level. What has it beat? Only maidens. If you are looking at a race with a NW1X condition, be it on the turf or dirt, and you see a horse with 10 wins, 5 on the dirt and 5 on the turf, in a field where the rest of the horses are "1 for something", which horse is the most successful? This is the horse I would look at first. Then I would have to make the decision of whether or not the other "1 for" horses can beat it. Class really isn't an issue in these races, for the most part. Like I said, the horses that are "1 for" have not established their class level. They are repeatidly entered into a NW1X race because the owner is concerned that he will lose his horse via the claiming box if he drops the horse into a claiming race, so they just keep running 2nd, 3rd or even out of the money and burning up the money bet on them. Many times these horses are the favorite or 2nd choice or 3rd choice and are of no value. Evaluate the claiming horse with the wins. Remember, these wins could be for $3,500, $7,500, $12,500, $20,000 or $50,000. What is better? A "1 for" that can't beat any field of horses or a a claimer that demonstrate it can beat various levels of competition? Every reader will come to their own conclusion. My conclusion is, horses that demonstrate they can win races are better than those that demonstrate they cannot.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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08-16-2011, 07:29 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,152
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FTL,
Nice job explaining that type of condition race. |
08-16-2011, 09:33 PM | #7 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
Posts: 627
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Comments below are based on my experience mainly on the SoCal circuit since 1989.
Quote:
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08-16-2011, 10:46 PM | #8 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
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Quote:
3 year olds ONLY on the turf, in most cases, is another case of "why bother?". It's pretty much a dart throwing event. No matter how you cut it, there simply isn't enough data there to form a solid opinion. This is another case of finding a better race to play. I have been around this game long enough to remember the days of going to the track closest to where you live for the day. The track presented 9 races or 10 races or whatever their schedule was. There was a "daily double" on the first 2 races and after that, it was win, place and show. There was no internet and no simulcast, just the 9 or 10 races in front of you. In those days you "tried" to pick the winner of every race. With all that there is today, you don't have to get involved in these types of races. You can look somewhere else for a better opportunity. Just two points. In a n2l (non winners of 2 races lifetime, NW2L) there can't be a horse with 10 wins in the race. Also, the race you attached is not a bottom level Allowance-NW1X, rather, it is a bottom level "money optional claiming race" (OC-NW$X) that is run under allowance conditions. It is very similar to a regular allowance race which has the same money condition. These two races are "apples to oranges", in the same way as an Allowance race with a condition of NW1X is much different than an Allowance race with NW2X condition. The condition of the race you attached reads "WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000", rather than " for NON WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING". These are two completely different races. The condition forbidding a horse from having won a $40,000 claimer insures that a claimer coming into this race has run at a lower level. A "true" NW1X has no such restriction.
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"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own |
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08-17-2011, 06:01 AM | #9 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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speed
Quote:
How about a horse that beats half the field Maybe 4th or 5th in a 11 horse field beaten by 3 or 4 lenghts with a speed rating within 3 points of the best speed ratings of the runners in todays race or made a stong gain in the second fraction first race after a layoff . That is what Doc veiwed as a good effort or "showed something" and was a plus within a zero type effort GS Bill V. |
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08-17-2011, 06:19 AM | #10 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
Posts: 627
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Quote:
I look for positive moves within a running line and then try to view the context the move was made in to make a decision whether the horse in fact showed something. |
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