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07-23-2008, 06:28 PM | #1 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 22
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Paceline selection
Ok, I know this is a question that has probably been beaten to death, but I can't seem to find the answer anywhere. My question is, what is the best way to determine the best race of of the last three comparable? What criteria is best suited to determine which of the last three comparable is the best? And how far back would you go to find the three comparable? If two of the comparable races was the last race and the second to last, but the next comparable was the tenth race back would that race still be used?
Last edited by AAcoolguy; 07-23-2008 at 06:31 PM. |
07-23-2008, 06:41 PM | #2 | |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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Maybe using the Hat's power line would help AA
Quote:
http://www.paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2619
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07-23-2008, 06:44 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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you
Hi
That is the question What line do you think is the best? What I think is the best line might not be what you would think is What I look for is the speed rating The highest of the last three races ? We most times yes But not always sometimes Distance surface and class all are things I look at too but other people look at total energy others use the last race only There are readouts in RDSS like perceptor which give a total - low is best rating Validator has a way to select line The F6 key There are many ways but I think it all depends on what you consider the best Bill |
07-23-2008, 06:52 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
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From Ray Taulbot "Lessons in Handicapping"
The fastest pace line anywhere in the horse past performance, where the horse was close to the pace and finished no worse than 5 lengths off the winner. Ideally same distance or within a furlong of today distance. |
07-23-2008, 07:18 PM | #5 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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AA
Can you stick up an example?? People can maybe then tell you what line they'd use and why
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07-23-2008, 07:49 PM | #6 |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 22
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Ok
I'll try to put up an example. I'm at work right now, I'll do it when I get home.
I was given a copy of Val 4 recently and I have used the F6 (line selector) but I am still worried that the proper line is not being selected mainly because it will often select a line that is neither the same distance or surface or even class level. It seems that it will often times just pick the line with the best speed rating. If that's the case why have the option at all, just use the highest speed rating. Also from what I have been reading in the Follow Ups Doc Sartin rarely goes back more than three lines. I have found that in order to find a comparable race I have to go back a lot further than that and often that is the race with the highest speed rating. |
07-23-2008, 07:59 PM | #7 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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AA
Look forward to seeing the example and hopefully to P&C members thoughts too
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07-23-2008, 08:13 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 878
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AA,
usually the best line in the horse past performance is the line that also have the highest speed rating. Is how the horse performed in that race that counts the most. The last 2 or 3 races are only indicative of the horse form. Is the horse coming to hand or losing his form. What effect last race had on the horse, was a taxing effort or a conditioning race. If it was a hard race, maybe the horse will not perform today, if it was a conditioning race, maybe that is all the horse need, to win today. Interpreting pace lines require going back to the past performance and find the factors that were missed which would have made the horse in question a contender. Last edited by gl45; 07-23-2008 at 08:16 PM. |
07-23-2008, 09:07 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: New Jersey, USA
Posts: 471
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You also have to keep in mind the class level of horse. Very cheap horses like Clm5000nw2L, etc., go off-form real quick, so using its "best of last three comparable" pacelines is not always the 'best' choice. Especially, if its last line was its 'best,' particularly if it was a win.
Even those horses that do show wins or good finishes in subsequent races in their past performances, that is not a quarantee with these 'cheap' guys that they will do so today! Such are the problems handicapping lower class level horses but that's where the bigger payouts are, especially in the exotics, so that's where I am. What helps me to successfully prognosticate in this arena are a) experience handicapping lower class horses, i.e. developing the intuition whether to use or not use a particular pace line, along with b) supporting corollaries like angles and trainer stats/patterns. Regards, Jon
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07-23-2008, 10:43 PM | #10 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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Same course and distance - Fast
71.4 SF 70 (2nd beaten 1.3 lengths) 71.5 SF 84 (Won) Which Line would you use?????
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