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Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice

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Old 01-15-2019, 05:21 PM   #1
The Pook
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Is tracking odds worth the trouble?

My first full time year doing the Matchup has been good. It took a few years to get it down to something I could live with, but after experimenting up to including 2017 I took the leap and bet full-time for 2018.

I paid no mind to odds. ML or at the gate. I bet it and forget it. Took a couple of hours, found the horses, and pre bet the ones of interest. Didn't sweat about when to pull the trigger or on what odds. Tracking odds has its own level of anxiety. I did however record the odds at the gate after which my betting site notes on the Betting Intervals page.

I bet one horse per race to win that seemed a lock, as advocated in The HatCheck. I found 792 plays over a year of about 40 weeks. About 4 plays a day from all tracks running mostly in the afternoon and mostly on weekdays.

These plays hit 29% of the time for an ROI of 30%. No concern for odds. I remember whale bettor Ernie Dahlman once said that you can't tell what the odds are going to be anyway. His bets would change the odds noticeably. In these times with simulcast online betting, quite frequently odds will be more than halved as the horses are on the backstretch. Many was the time that a 4.5-1 at the gate runner would become a 1.8-1 backstretch runner. Ernie or no Ernie. Hard to get a price.

Looking back at gate load odds I discovered for me a 2.5-1 threshold. Under 2.5-1 my hit rate was 42% with a -10% ROI. Over 2-1 my hit rate dropped to 21% but with a 55% ROI. Not bad. But you have to be present at every post to make or cancel bets that don't meet criteria. Also there is a lot less action when demanding minimum odds. It becomes a lifestyle thing.

Yes it makes financial sense to forget lower odds horses. But from my records not absolutely necessary.

I have decided to try following gate odds for 2019 with a minimum 2.5-1 anyway. The higher ROI has an allure. I may not like it. To date I have an odorous -78% ROI hitting 2/31. A lot of seconds, so things will turn around eventually.

In conclusion I realize that most on this site advocate value and minimum odds. A few threads have been written with mathematical formulas determining whether a single or two horse or dutch bet is worth it. I get it but I question whether overall it is worth sweating over.

Sincerely,
Pook
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Old 01-15-2019, 05:22 PM   #2
The Pook
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Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada
Posts: 1,554
Is tracking odds worth the trouble?

My first full time year doing the Matchup has been good. It took a few years to get it down to something I could live with, but after experimenting up to including 2017 I took the leap and bet full-time for 2018.

I paid no mind to odds. ML or at the gate. I bet it and forget it. Took a couple of hours, found the horses, and pre bet the ones of interest. Didn't sweat about when to pull the trigger or on what odds. Tracking odds has its own level of anxiety. I did however record the odds at the gate after which my betting site notes on the Betting Intervals page.

I bet one horse per race to win that seemed a lock, as advocated in The HatCheck. I found 792 plays over a year of about 40 weeks. About 4 plays a day from all tracks running mostly in the afternoon and mostly on weekdays.

These plays hit 29% of the time for an ROI of 30%. No concern for odds. I remember whale bettor Ernie Dahlman once said that you can't tell what the odds are going to be anyway. His bets would change the odds noticeably. In these times with simulcast online betting, quite frequently odds will be more than halved as the horses are on the backstretch. Many was the time that a 4.5-1 at the gate runner would become a 1.8-1 backstretch runner. Ernie or no Ernie. Hard to get a price.

Looking back at gate load odds I discovered for me a 2.5-1 threshold. Under 2.5-1 my hit rate was 42% with a -10% ROI. Over 2-1 my hit rate dropped to 21% but with a 55% ROI. Not bad. But you have to be present at every post to make or cancel bets that don't meet criteria. Also there is a lot less action when demanding minimum odds. It becomes a lifestyle thing.

Yes it makes financial sense to forget lower odds horses. But from my records not absolutely necessary.

I have decided to try following gate odds for 2019 with a minimum 2.5-1 anyway. The higher ROI has an allure. I may not like it. To date I have an odorous -78% ROI hitting 2/31. A lot of seconds, so things will turn around eventually.

In conclusion I realize that most on this site advocate value and minimum odds. A few threads have been written with mathematical formulas determining whether a single or two horse or dutch bet is worth it. I get it but I question whether overall it is worth sweating over.

Sincerely,
Pook
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Old 01-15-2019, 08:10 PM   #3
Bill V.
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Honest

Thank you
I appreciate your honest feelings.It's a true pro that you shared your records after a year.
I know how dedicated a match up student you are.

I my self need to follow a similar mindset of bet it and forget it,

For about 6 weeks I have been working TVG` s pick 8 contest
Each week betting 1 horse per race I have hit 3 of 8 with many of the misses placing
I think I should start to track my roi in these races
Having no control of the final odds I do get some nice surprises

It's hard to bet 1 horse after 22 years of betting 2 horses and wager capping.
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Old 01-15-2019, 08:48 PM   #4
CheckMark
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Pook View Post
Looking back at gate load odds I discovered for me a 2.5-1 threshold. Under 2.5-1 my hit rate was 42% with a -10% ROI. Over 2-1 my hit rate dropped to 21% but with a 55% ROI. Not bad. But you have to be present at every post to make or cancel bets that don't meet criteria. Also there is a lot less action when demanding minimum odds. It becomes a lifestyle thing.

Yes it makes financial sense to forget lower odds horses. But from my records not absolutely necessary.
Great job having your stats. It makes sense to whatever you are feeling. If I were you, I would have my horses 2-1+ since your ROI is much better. Good luck this year Pook!
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Old 01-16-2019, 07:44 AM   #5
RichieP
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Hi Pook
First congratulations on a wonderful year of matching! Very few can match that overall ROI win betting believe me.


Personally I would continue betting exactly as you did in 2018 paying absolutely NO attention to odds. I know HAT would say the same thing as he never paid attention to odds either win betting or in his pick 3 play. Even if the low odds runners are showing a small loss the win percentage is good (also for the psyche!) and with all the late and after the bell odds changes that happen virtually every race who knows what the heck can happen.

The very best of luck and skill in 2019!
Richie
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Old 01-16-2019, 06:25 PM   #6
rdiam
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I may be biased, but I think the answer to your question is to remember that you are not betting on horses, you are betting against others in the pool. These days, this means you are betting against large syndicates and large rebate players. They are certainly watching the tote, even influencing the tote. If you want to maximize your edge, you need to pay attention to the odds on your bet.

Using Sartin and Bradshaw as guideposts is somewhat dubious, since they played in a different era with limited rebates and virtually no computer bots. In addition, favorites are winning at a much higher rate than when they bet horses, as the rebate bettors end up on the same horses as they mine the same data.

At a minimum, you should make sure you can classify at least one low odds horse in the race you are betting as "vulnerable" and toss that horse if going off at 3-1 or lower. This will offset the pari-mutuel take and give you a fighting chance to have a positive expectation.


Hope this helps.


Richard
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Old 01-16-2019, 08:49 PM   #7
AbqVic
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Great guideline rdiam. Thank you.
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"The race may not always be to the swift, nor the victory to the strong, but that's how you bet." - Damon Runyon

"I don't like money actually, but it quiets my nerves." - Joe Louis
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Old 01-16-2019, 10:18 PM   #8
Mark
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Congratulations!!!

Great approach and attitude. Very nice work!
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Old 01-16-2019, 11:06 PM   #9
The Pook
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Thanks for your responses and input guys. I appreciate it. Gives me stuff to think about.

Pook
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Old 01-16-2019, 11:07 PM   #10
Mitch44
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Pook:


I admire your integrity and sharing. Any person that can look into a mirror and provide an honest evaluation of their self is far superior to many my paths has crossed. You're an exceptional individual who is destined to be an exceptional handicapper one day.
Thanks for sharing.



Great work and post,


Mitch44
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