Risen Star at the Fairgrounds - Pace and Cap

lone speed · 02-23-2013, 02:25 AM

Derby points accumulation begins in earnest with 50 points going to the winner in the Risen Star and the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream..

I only wanted to look at the Risen Star since one of the morning line favorite Oxbow is coming off slow early fractions from his last race and in this race, it is loaded with faster early speed so Oxbow might be vulnerable in this matchup....Let's look over the race...

I have attached a pps of the Risen Star if any one wants to jump in and post their opinions of the match up...

Risen Star pps.pdf

After looking over most of the contenders.....I settled on Baffert's Code West who comes off that blitzing mile race of Super Ninety Nine....that seems to be the best last race of all the contenders...

Normandy Invasion looks like the main counter energy horse off the layoff as he will be absolutely flying at the end....this one has "the look" of the real McCoy for the Derby.....but it is still early until the first Saturday of May....

Good Skills

rmath · 02-23-2013, 09:35 AM

Lone Speed, after running this race I came up with
#9 Normandy Invasion top pick
# 12 Hes Had Enough 2nd pick
#2 Code West 3rd choice
#5 Mylute 4thchoice

Oxbow does not rate as one of my main win contenders but is a possible contender to be in the tri or the super.

Will have to wait to decide which two of my top three that I will place my money on. Will hold out for 7/2 or higher odds or pass the race.
rmath

Bill V. · 02-23-2013, 11:23 AM

I will be watching and rooting for you guys

rmath · 02-23-2013, 11:32 AM

Thanks Bill.
with the scratches 0f the 12-14 & 15
I had to rerun the race now have 9-2-5 as my top 3 win horses

lone speed · 02-23-2013, 10:12 PM

Wow...who knew???

Here is the result...

Name: Snap 2013-02-23 at 19.06.04.jpg
Views: 438
Size: 137.3 KB

atkinsrr · 02-23-2013, 10:14 PM

What a horrible race....glad I passed the race...I had the 9, 2, 5, but my model for 8.5f
@ FG was showing deep closers like Normandy not getting up in time...had a bad feeling about this race and passed...glad I did

Bill V. · 02-23-2013, 11:46 PM

Here is the winner

Name: I struck.PNG
Views: 412
Size: 81.5 KB

lone speed · 02-24-2013, 12:34 AM

Bill and Rmath...

Thanks for your input in this race....

I saw not one iota of clue that would have lead me to the longshot besides the dam side by Cryptoclearance...

The only other plus was on August 26th at Del Mar...where this one finish under 24 seconds going 6 furlongs....

next race....thanks again...

rmath · 02-24-2013, 12:41 AM

No way to get this one in the contenders.
If memory serves me right this race has produced several longshots over the past several years.

Rverge · 02-24-2013, 11:06 AM

Ted C hit one at the FG either last year or the year before....same race i think. or was it La. derby at the FG? 80-1???

02-23-2013, 02:25 AM	#1
lone speed Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 695	Risen Star at the Fairgrounds Derby points accumulation begins in earnest with 50 points going to the winner in the Risen Star and the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream.. I only wanted to look at the Risen Star since one of the morning line favorite Oxbow is coming off slow early fractions from his last race and in this race, it is loaded with faster early speed so Oxbow might be vulnerable in this matchup....Let's look over the race... I have attached a pps of the Risen Star if any one wants to jump in and post their opinions of the match up... Risen Star pps.pdf After looking over most of the contenders.....I settled on Baffert's Code West who comes off that blitzing mile race of Super Ninety Nine....that seems to be the best last race of all the contenders... Normandy Invasion looks like the main counter energy horse off the layoff as he will be absolutely flying at the end....this one has "the look" of the real McCoy for the Derby.....but it is still early until the first Saturday of May.... Good Skills

02-23-2013, 11:23 AM	#3
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Good Skill I will be watching and rooting for you guys

02-23-2013, 11:46 PM	#7
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	The winner Here is the winner

02-24-2013, 11:06 AM	#10
Rverge Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: pittsburgh, now! Lancaster, CA. Posts: 2,531	Ted C hit one at the FG either last year or the year before....same race i think. or was it La. derby at the FG? 80-1??? __________________ i love every single minute of life, and, if one is lucky,then you must give it to others.

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02-23-2013, 09:35 AM	#2
rmath Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,676	Risen Star Lone Speed, after running this race I came up with #9 Normandy Invasion top pick # 12 Hes Had Enough 2nd pick #2 Code West 3rd choice #5 Mylute 4thchoice Oxbow does not rate as one of my main win contenders but is a possible contender to be in the tri or the super. Will have to wait to decide which two of my top three that I will place my money on. Will hold out for 7/2 or higher odds or pass the race. rmath

02-23-2013, 11:32 AM	#4
rmath Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,676	Thanks Bill. with the scratches 0f the 12-14 & 15 I had to rerun the race now have 9-2-5 as my top 3 win horses

02-23-2013, 10:12 PM	#5
lone speed Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 695	135 to 1 Shocker.... Wow...who knew??? Here is the result...

02-23-2013, 10:14 PM	#6
atkinsrr Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 507	What a horrible race....glad I passed the race...I had the 9, 2, 5, but my model for 8.5f @ FG was showing deep closers like Normandy not getting up in time...had a bad feeling about this race and passed...glad I did

02-24-2013, 12:34 AM	#8
lone speed Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 695	Bill and Rmath... Thanks for your input in this race.... I saw not one iota of clue that would have lead me to the longshot besides the dam side by Cryptoclearance... The only other plus was on August 26th at Del Mar...where this one finish under 24 seconds going 6 furlongs.... next race....thanks again...

02-24-2013, 12:41 AM	#9
rmath Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,676	Risen Star No way to get this one in the contenders. If memory serves me right this race has produced several longshots over the past several years.