Saratoga Factor Information thru 8/7

[MJS6916]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Starts on day 1, does not cover races won by FTS or when more than two FTS or foreign starters in their first outing. There were a couple of days without data because I did not assemble all races. it started out as being a study of the four main factors, but ended up with most of the factors on the RX screen but not CR+, or New pace info. I forgot to show the final contender's TE ranking info and that could be a mistake. I like to look at the TE from POR top horses and compare it to my contenders, especially when making the final cuts to four or three. But just as interesting is a horse from say the #5 POR with only a 4 ranking in the contender mix – usually an easy elimination for win.

Finally, based on my handicapping and my SEGMENTS screen info I recorded the Lengths Back at 2nd call, so on the first worksheet that has all the races, 85% win within 4.5 L at 2nd call; also listed is wins from less than 2.6 L back.

All of the worksheets have the same info, but sorted differently. the 2nd sheet is by distance and distances that have top 3 in all races are highlighted in yellow; those with 2 or 3 outside the top three are in light green. I am not finished playing with this info, however.

Bill, did you use the 50% or 100% DTV?

Thanks for putting this together, Mike

[Bill Lyster]

50%

[Bill Lyster]

I want to assign the value of any one factor as follows:

If the factor = 1, then the value is 1.00
If the factor = 2, then the value is 0.80
If the factor = 3, then the value is 0.64
If the factor = 4, then the value is 0.512
If the factor = 5, then the value is 0.41
If the factor = X, then the value is 0.00

I need an If, THEN statement for an excel spreadsheet.

In its simplest format I would enter is this info in a separate column, but the best solution would be to combine the values from one cell (like Vdc rank) and add it to the next cell (like Csr rank) for as many relevant cells as I think are necessary. The hopeful result would be a value that when compared to other separate contenders would rank contenders for each race.

All help anyone can provide including other more expeditious formula would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks,

Bill

[MJS6916]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

I want to assign the value of any one factor as follows:

If the factor = 1, then the value is 1.00
If the factor = 2, then the value is 0.80
If the factor = 3, then the value is 0.64
If the factor = 4, then the value is 0.512
If the factor = 5, then the value is 0.41
If the factor = X, then the value is 0.00

I need an If, THEN statement for an excel spreadsheet.

In its simplest format I would enter is this info in a separate column, but the best solution would be to combine the values from one cell (like Vdc rank) and add it to the next cell (like Csr rank) for as many relevant cells as I think are necessary. The hopeful result would be a value that when compared to other separate contenders would rank contenders for each race.

All help anyone can provide including other more expeditious formula would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks,

Bill

Bill,

With cell "A1" being the example try this:

=IF(A1=1,1,0)+IF(A1=2,0.8,0)+IF(A1=3,0.64,0)+IF(A1=4,0.512,0)+IF(A1=5,0.41,0)

I'm not a wizard but that should do it. Let me know if it doesn't and I'll try it again.

Mike

[Lt1]

Wow looks like you are creating a mountain out of a mole hill. I just completed another 100 horse survey using only pen and paper. The tracks involved were Park,Sar,TDN, and Del. Once again I add 2 lengths to the Bris profile by dist and surface. Here are the results.
Horses Wins Places Shows Outs
100 6 11 15 68
So combined with the prior 200 horses the win % stands at 10 %[30=300]. This stat, to my way of thinking, establishes a pretty safe elimination factor, FOR WIN, among your true contenders. Being an old timer I kind of like to follow the KISS way of doing things but I guess there is a way to build a better mouse trap.
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

Tim, I am just trying different weighting factors as part of the research. If I don't try it, I won't know it. I don't like "what ifs". If it does not work, you won't hear about it.

"The pen is mightier than the tablet?"

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by MJS6916

Bill,

With cell "A1" being the example try this:

=IF(A1=1,1,0)+IF(A1=2,0.8,0)+IF(A1=3,0.64,0)+IF(A1=4,0.512,0)+IF(A1=5,0.41,0)

I'm not a wizard but that should do it. Let me know if it doesn't and I'll try it again.

Mike

Thanks Mike I got it to work, just like you laid out.

Appreciate the quick response.

Bill

[Lt1]

Bill all I started out to do was to see if the 2c bls could be used to eliminate my true contenders for win consideration in a simple manner. I believe I've done it. As Doc stated over and over what happens 1n 20 races will happen in a 100 give or take 2-3%. I've have followed that ever since I heard and over numerous studies and it has held up very well. All I'm saying is there is no need to carry the coals to Newcastle..to establish a stat. It would seem to me that the facts you provided to start this thread would be sufficient to establish whether or not to be used to eliminate horse from win consideration. But if you wish to explore more possibilities then so be it. In my case it's not what's mightier but what's simpler while effective. Good luck with the research.
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

No dispute LT, just looking at it a different way. In my work at Saratoga so far, 57% of all races won from < 2.6L back on RDSS; 28% won from 2.6-4.5 L back and the other 15% came from >4.5 L back. Surprisingly the distance with the greatest come from behind wins was 5.5T - 14/29 came from 4 or more lengths back (using Segments info).

[Lt1]

That 5.5t info is something that you can use for profit. It's like knowing when to go against one's model when the right set up occurs. Believe or not at most tracks I play 5.5 races on the dirt are won by lp horses.
Tim